Michael Gerson, one of Bush's favorite sabre-rattlers in the lead up to th 2003 invasion of Iraq, recently
wrote on this subject. Will this Republican wave be more isolationist in the tradition of libertarianism or more international in the tradition of neo-conservatism? Personally, I don't think even Rand Paul will work against the efforts in Afghanistan- I think true libertarians will, once again, find disappointment in Republicans. Neo-conservatism will be dominant, and that will affect all aspects of U.S. foreign policy. But to focus on the warzone I call "AfPak"...
I found it interesting when Gerson
wrote the following;
In particular, according to Mead, Jacksonians believe in wars that end with the unconditional surrender of an enemy, instead of "multilateral, limited warfare or peacekeeping operations."
If true, that would be very problematic. Iraq didn't end with such an unconditional surrender either, but they probably will not have the same patience for Barack Obama as they had for George W. Bush.(even if Hamid Karzai was chosen by Bush)
Another important place to keep an eye on is of course not Afghanistan, but Pakistan. Will foreign aid be cut? Will another insensitive Republican make comments about Muslims that could inflame their sensitivities? Afghanistan and Pakistan are both very conservative Muslim countries. Then there is Saudi Arabia, a vital ally in reconciliation talks even as those talks have collapsed for now, given their abolute demand that the insurgents separate from al Qaeda.(Saudi Arabia is all too keenly aware of the growing problem in Yemen) Then there is, of course, Iran which completely-dominates Afghanistan's western border and needs to decide on whether they want stability in the area or more chaos.(Petreaus recently briefed some Iranian officials to discuss regional security)
Beyond the Muslim world, it will be important to watch how our dialogue with Russia and China end up. President Barack Obama has done a lot to try and repair those relationships, especially with Russia. The U.S. and Russia recently conducted their first joint-raid in Afghanistan, netting a huge amount of narcotics. Russia is deeply-worried about the increasing instability north of Afghanistan.
Already, perhaps or perhaps not because of the Republican takeover, we are hearing less about 2011(declared year when withdrawal would "begin") and more about 2014. In time, I imagine we'll hear that all "combat troops" will be out of Afghanistan by 2014 to pave the way for a longer and smaller training/support mission. The biggest problem I foresee is on what our elected leaders signal to those in the AfPak region. Just as neocons claim that an exit date provides comfort to the enemy, so does open-ended warfare provide comfort to the Brothers Karzai and their fellow lords of corruption who are entirely dependent on us.