A
deal between a Shia tribe and the Haqqani network will give the insurgent group new access into Afghanistan. The Shia tribe, based in Kurram of Pakistan's FATA, had forbidden militants from passing through their territory in Kurram to enter Afghanistan. Kurram sticks out like a dagger pointed right at Kabul, and is hardly ever targeted by drones compared to North Waziristan located just to the south. The Shia tribe had spent years fighting other Taliban militants, but was recently blockaded into their territory by the Pakistani army. Several Haqqani brothers recently came to Kurram to mediate the dispute and see about cutting a deal. What this means is that the Haqqani network has a new rear base, and new access into Afghanistan. Kurram agency borders Pakistan's Khost, Paktia, and Nangarhar provinces and cuts the distance between the border and Kabul.
NATO has
now been in Afghanistan longer than the Soviet Union had been.
Afghanistan:
NATO is stepping-up its efforts to combat the Taliban's propaganda "machine".
The British have been blamed for bringing the "Taliban imposter" to the negotiating table. The imposter pretended to be one of the movement's top leaders.
Two suicide bombers killed a dozen Afghan police officers in the east.
From 11/1-11/28, my count via press releases and reports produced the following figures;
548 suspected-insurgents Captured/Killed/Surrendered. 257 killed, 363 captured, 28 surrendered. 75 Low-Level Leaders Killed/Captured/Surrendered.
In Kandahar/Helmand provinces, the Taliban's stronghold: 117 killed, 102 captured. 20 low-level leaders killed/captured.
In Khost/Paktia/Paktika provinces, Haqqani's stronghold: 15 killed, 126 captured. 30 low-level leaders killed/captured.
42 ISAFcasualties: 25 in the south, 16 in the east, 1 in the north
After Afghan President Hamid Karzai criticized the special operation raids largely responsible for these figures there was a six-day drop in said raids from over a half a dozen a day to less than half that(starting 11/15, can be viewed below). The raids are still being carried out across the country with a serious ferocity, but there is a gradual decline as the cold of winter draws closer. The numbers I compile and estimate try to low-ball the quantity of suspect-insurgents and the influence of the leaders captured. Nearly everyone of the 75 leader that were killed, captured, or who surrendered, functioned within a given district of an Afghan province. There are almost 400 districts throughout Afghanistan.
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan:
Mehsud tribal elders are working with the government to soon begin repatriation for internally-displaced people uprooted by last year's military offensive into South Waziristan. They hope to begin resettling people in December. Operation Rah-e-Najat focused on the Mehsud regions of South Waziristan where the Pakistani Taliban had complete control.
Just to the north, another drone strike occured in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan. It was the 14th strike of the month. Over 100 drone strikes have taken place this year in Pakistan's Federally-Administered Tribal Areas, with most strikes focused on North Waziristan. Sometime next month, the number of drone strikes is expected to double the number of drone strikes that were launched in 2009, a year that Peter Bergen called "the year of the drone".
Pakistan:
The U.S. embassy denied reports that they have forces in Balochistan. A petition filed in a Pakistani court claims Pakistan does not have the right to sell or lease land to foreigners for an airbase in Balochistan. The vast province of Balochistan is the site of a low-intensity insurgency by Baloch nationalists and also the rear base for the Afghan Taliban, especially around the north-eastern portion by the provincial capital of Quetta.
Pakistan's Minister of Tourism loves the Taliban. This particular Minister's brother, Fazl ur-Rehman, a major political player in Pakistan with a long history of supporting the Taliban. Fazl ur-Rehman's ultra-conservative political party is a part of the PPP coalition government in Islamabad. He favors a political settlement to handle the Afghan question and recently said that in such a settlement, al Qaeda would have to "fall in line" or leave the region.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is facing politcal pressure over the fate of a Christian woman who could face the death penalty for blasphemy. Asia Bibi is a mother of five.
Maps:
When considering the situation in Pashtunistan, consider these maps of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is in the Pashtun areas where the U.S. and NATO have the most problems. It's important to note that while Pashtuns make up a much larger proportion of the population of Afghanistan than they do in Pakistan, there are still more Pashtuns in Pakistan than in Afghanistan. Here is a good map and rundown of the areas that make up the main warzone.
ISAF Presses Releases / Media Reports on Suspected Insurgent Deaths/Captures:
11/1-11/28
548 suspected-insurgents Captured/Killed/Surrendered. 257 killed, 363 captured, 28 surrendered. 75 Low-Level Leaders Killed/Captured/Surrendered.
In Kandahar/Helmand provinces, the Taliban's stronghold: 117 killed, 102 captured. 20 low-level leaders killed/captured.
In Khost/Paktia/Paktika provinces, Haqqani's stronghold: 15 killed, 126 captured. 30 low-level leaders killed/captured.
42 ISAFcasualties: 25 in the south, 16 in the east, 1 in the north
11/22-11/28
23 K, 91 C. 18 Low-Level Leaders Killed/Captured/Surrendered. 3 Low-Level K, 15 Low-Level C
(16 of 22 K in Nangarhar during failed insurgent assault during search for low-level leader)
Kandahar/Helmand, Taliban heartland: 3 K, 21 C, 1 Low K, 5 Low C
Khost/Paktia/Paktika, Haqqani heartland: 2 K, 38 C, 1 Low K, 8 Low C
5 ISAF casualties. 4 in the south, 1 in the east
11/15-11/21
91 K, 78 C. 14 Low-Level Leaders Killed/Captured/Surrendered. 3 Low-Level K, 10 Low-Level C, 1 Low-Mid K
(62 of 91 were killed in Kunar between a failed insurgent-assault and a coalition clearing operation, another 23 in Helmand)
Kandahar/Helmand, Taliban heartland: 23 K, 17 C, 1 Low-Mid K, 3 Low C
Khost/Paktia/Paktika, Haqqani heartland: 40 C, 5 Low C
7 ISAF casualties. 4 in the south, 3 in the east.
11/8-11/14
82 K, 97 C, 7 S. 20 Low-Level Leaders Killed/Captured/Surrendered. 1 Low-Mid K, 1 Low-Mid C, 16 Low C, 1 Low K, 1 Low S.
Kandahar/Helmand: 59 K, 54 C. 6 Low C
Khost/Paktia/Paktika: 1 K, 17 C. 1 Low K, 3 Low C
13 ISAF casualties. 7 ISAF casualties in the east, 6 in the south
11/1-11/7
61 K, 97 C, 21 S. 23 Low Level Leaders Killed/Captured/Surrendered. 8 Low K, 14 Low C, 1 Low S.
Kandahar/Helmand, Taliban heartland: 33 K, 20 C. 2 Low C, 2 Low K.
Khost/Paktia/Paktika, Haqqani heartland: 12 K, 31 C. 5 Low C, 6 Low K.
17 ISAF casualties. 11 ISAF casualties in the south, 5 in the east, 1 in the north.
Sourcing:
11/15
3 C, Paktia, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Kandahar(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 ISAF casualties, the east
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/16
6 C, Helmand(looking for 1 Low)
9 C, Paktia(looking for 1 Low)
6 C, Khost(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the east
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/17
2 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Kandahar,1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 ISAF casualties, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/18
2 C, Nimroz(looking for 2 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
49 K, Kunar(Pech River Valley Op)
http://www.longwarjournal.org/...
13 K, Kunar, failed insurgent attack
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/19
5 K, 2 C, Helmand(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Nimruz(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Zabul(looking for 1 Low)
1 C, Logar(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
7 C, Baghlan, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
67 K, 49 C. 5 Low-Level C
(62 of 67 were killed in Kunar between a failed insurgent-assault and a coalition clearing operation)
Kandahar/Helmand, Taliban heartland: 5 K, 13 C, 1 Low C
Khost/Paktia/Paktika, Haqqani heartland: 22 C, 3 Low C
7 ISAF casualties. 4 in the south, 3 in the east.
11/20
1 C, Nangarhar, 1 Low
2 C, Paktia(looing for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Kandahar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/21
2 C, Khost
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 K, Uruzgan, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
5 K, Helmand, failed Taliban assault
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11 K, Helmand(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, Helmand, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, 2 C, Farah(looking for 1 low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 K, 4 C, Logar(looking for 1 low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
12 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Kandahar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, Zabul, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Paktia, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
Updates from previous week:
1 K, Farah, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Logar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 K, Helmand, Low-Mid
http://www.longwarjournal.org/...
11/22
4 C, Khost, 2 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Zabul, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, 3 C, Helmand(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Farah(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Helmand, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 K, 2 C, Paktia, 1 Low K
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 ISAFcasualties, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/23
2 C, Kandahar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 C, Paktika(looking for 1 Mid)
2 C, Paktia(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Logar(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Farah(looking for 2 Low)
2 C, Helmand
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/24
2 C, Uruzgan, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
4 C, 1 K, Logar(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Paktia, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Khost, 1 Low
2 C, Khost(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Helmand, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/25
1 K, 2 C, Ghazni, 1 Low K
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Khost, 1 Low
2 C, Farah(looking for 1 Low-Mid)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Logar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1ISAF casualty, the south
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/26
1 C, Paktika, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Paktia(looking for 1 Low)
3 C, Khost, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
6 C, Kunduz, clearing operation
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/27
2 C, Kunduz(looking for 1 Low-Mid)
8 C, Khost(looking for 1 Low)
1 C, Zabul(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Kandahar, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
3 C, Helmand, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
16 K, 1 C, Nangahar. Failed insurgent attack on coalition looking for 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
1 ISAF casualty, the east
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
11/28
1 K, Helmand, 1 Low
http://www.dvidshub.net/...
2 C, Helmand(looking for 1 Low)
2 C, Paktika(looking for 1 Low)
http://www.dvidshub.net/...