Skip to main content

 A few days ago Bonddad basically did a call-out diary to all skeptics on the economy. He called everyone who doubted the strength of the recovery a "Zombie Bear" (i.e. unthinking pessimist).
  He then went on to unload nearly three dozen charts.

 The one thing I could never accuse Bonddad of is an inability to read a chart. He's got that down. My criticism of Bonddad has always been something else - he never asks "Why?"
 Since Bonddad would count me as a skeptic, and since Bonddad felt it necessary to call me out, I feel obligated to respond in kind.

 First of all, not all of us skeptics are unthinking zombies. For example, its been obvious since the middle of 2009 that manufacturing had hit bottom. While capacity utilization is still at recessionary levels, it's been slowly growing for over a year.

 The question is: Why?
It's not enough to just point to a series of charts, not if you want to actually understand the world around you.
  The reason for the modest rebound in the manufacturing sector is because of exports.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 Well, what's wrong with that? Nothing is wrong with it at face value, but some of us want to dig deeper.
 Why are exports surging? Because emerging markets are booming. In fact, most of those enormous corporate profit numbers you read about are from overseas sales. Why are emerging markets booming? Well, that's where you find a huge problem.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Emerging markets are booming because we are flooding them with currency in an effort to devalue the dollar. Even in the face of a sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the dollar has weakened because we've printed so many.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 So much money is flowing into emerging markets that many countries, such as Brazil are taxing capital inflows in order to discourage foreign speculators. Can you imagine a third-world country discouraging wealthy people from investing in their country? Why would they do that? Because they are fully aware that a bubble is forming. China has called us out on our increasing money printing and the problems it is causing.
 You have to wonder what is going to happen to the speculative edge in emerging markets if things continue to deteriorate in Europe.

 All of our money printing has a multiplier effect on the rest of the world.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 So what? All that money has to go somewhere, and that somewhere happens to be in things that get traded in devalued dollars.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 Food price inflation is a reality, and it strikes the poorest the hardest.

 For example, prices for feedgrains like corn, wheat and soybeans are up anywhere from 20-65% (not annualized) over the past six months, while prices for imported foods like coffee and sugar have jumped by 60% over the same period. Those increases are only beginning to show up in the popular price gauges.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 To put it simply, printing money is a zero-sum game. Some will win and some will lose. The manufacturers are winning, although manufacturing is less than 15% of the economy.
 The losers are a) everyone getting paid wages or saving in dollars, and b) the lower class who spends most of their income on food and energy.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 There is another winner to all this money printing, and those are the people who are closest to the source of the printing - Wall Street.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 As you well know, the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing (aka money printing) involves the purchase of trillions of dollars worth of securities. Who do they purchase all those securities from? Mostly from big Wall Street banks and financial institutions. That's why those Wall Street bonuses are so high - because taxpayers are subsidizing them.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 Now it would be a mistake to think that Wall Street banks own all those securities they sell to the Fed. Most of the time they just trade them. The top 20% of society, and mostly the elite 1%, are the ones who actually own the securities.
  And let me tell you, they are doing great!

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 So when I say that I am skeptical of how the economy is functioning, don't mistake me for saying that some segments of society aren't doing spectacular. Their wealth is increasing immensely, mostly because taxpayers are making sure that financial asset prices, the vast majority of which are owned by the wealthy elite, are propped up at the expense of the working class.
  So with all that extra money, the wealthy are going to spend.

  We're already seeing hugely positive results out of luxury brands like Coach (NYSE: COH), which reported sales growth of 20% this quarter, and high-end department stores like Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) and Saks (NYSE: SKS), which reported same-store sales of 5.8% and 5.7%, respectively...
  High-end jeweler Tiffany alone saw earnings jump 27% this past quarter.

 While the wealthy are shopping until they drop, sales at working-class retailers like Walmart are disappointing.
  So when you see a modest (and below historical average) bounce in real final sales, you might want to ask the question - who is doing the buying and why?

 One other thing on that call-out diary that I couldn't help notice was missing - the real estate market. You might remember it. It's considered a leading indicator by the experts, and was responsible for crashing the financial system, leading to a worldwide recession.
 Oh, yeah! That real estate market.

Things aren't doing so well there.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 Despite whatever you may have heard, there has been no rebound in the housing market. The government wasted hundreds of billions of dollars getting temporary (and false) bounces.
 Well, I shouldn't say "wasted". The Fed has purchased more than a trillion dollars worth of questionable mortgage-backed securities from Wall Street banks at face value. So I guess that the wealthy don't consider the spending to be "wasted".

  Now I'm sure that some bullish economist out there can produce a chart that shows that we are at the bottom in the real estate market right now, but it won't look like this.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

 The amount of housing inventory on the market is in the double-digits of months. The shadow inventory is even more.

 Like a real estate agent who will always tell you that "now is a good time to buy", its not hard to find an economist to tell you that the economy is improving. Anyone who saw Inside Job knows the scam.
  However, there are people who's job depends on making a correct call on the economy, and they aren't very optimistic.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

In conclusion

 Certain sectors of the economy are doing very, very good right now. Those people don't read blogs like these. They are busy living large and voting Republican because they want more tax cuts.
 Working class people read blogs like these, and they aren't living large. They are struggling to get by.

 So when someone comes by and basically says that if you were smarter that you would see the economy is doing much better, its not really a surprise that some people would resent it. Maybe even get nasty.
  They have a right to be nasty. All it takes is for one person, like me, to break down those charts to show that they are being screwed in order for the rich to get richer. Then those people who resent you telling them that they aren't very smart will realize that what those charts are actually showing is theft on a massive scale, and they are the marks.

[Update:  Some people were asking for a more complete breakdown of the upside-down pyramid chart. Here's another chart that might help.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Originally posted to gjohnsit on Wed Dec 01, 2010 at 09:19 AM PST.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Meteor Blades, RichM, Tookish, JekyllnHyde, Alumbrados, Ed in Montana, Angie in WA State, rick, coral, itsbenj, Timaeus, roonie, XOVER, SaveDemocracy, DelRPCV, badger, melvynny, Shockwave, Emocrat, Wintermute, billlaurelMD, oysterface, eeff, MackInTheBox, windwardguy46, RFK Lives, opinionated, Justina, TracieLynn, jimbo999, taonow, greenomanic, Larry Bailey, ctsteve, psnyder, jlynne, CitizenOfEarth, pat bunny, RaulVB, chriscol, HeyMikey, laughingriver, nika7k, lcrp, Pohjola, cevad, bwintx, skimpydj, Deward Hastings, xxdr zombiexx, bibble, BDA in VA, environmentalist, ExStr8, maybeeso in michigan, 3goldens, jrooth, Alexander G Rubio, unclejohn, corvo, kamarvt, eightlivesleft, RequestedUsername, drewfromct, Brooke In Seattle, trinityfly, reflectionsv37, ratzo, Sandino, LucyandByron, techno, deepsouthdoug, dancewater, Jim P, reddbierd, SoulCatcher, Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse, Keone Michaels, Yellow Canary, cookseytalbott, AoT, The Wizard, Magnifico, Lefty Coaster, blueoasis, NBBooks, triv33, gatorcog, JVolvo, NearlyNormal, el cid, sceptical observer, AndyS In Colorado, profh, Jbearlaw, Cassiodorus, goinsouth, blueoregon, kurt, shaharazade, PoxOnYou, MadScientist, pkbarbiedoll, bstotts, Picot verde, Nulwee, Aaa T Tudeattack, PatriciaVa, DBunn, bigchin, One Pissed Off Liberal, old wobbly, bluicebank, wa ma, jhecht, california keefer, Margfh, linkage, silverlil, LillithMc, david mizner, daveygodigaditch, terabytes, Shadowmage36, Unbozo, aliasalias, Strabo, bnasley, Kentucky Kid, bobswern, millwood, Brahman Colorado, South Park Democrat, Terra Mystica, TomP, cynndara, rogerdaddy, Corporate Dog, onovanday, edg, MikePhoenix, Fossil, KJG52, beltane, icebergslim, bluesheep, Tam in CA, mofembot, banger, paul spencer, Ruff Limblog, aigeanta, Robobagpiper, In her own Voice, lgcap, David Futurama, davidveale, squarewheel, ZhenRen, LaFeminista, Florene, cybrestrike, smellybeast, arendt, two roads, Valatius, lostinamerica, An Affirming Flame, dharmasyd, CanyonWren, Stranded Wind, dark daze, Methinks They Lie, Partisan Progressive, dRefractor, kevinpdx, deutschluz, maxzj05, jfromga, ohmyheck, boatwright, Edge PA, porchdog1961, Johnnythebandit, Aramis Wyler, gulfgal98, Mariken, Kristina40, albrt, washunate, farbuska, elengul, Floande, wabird, ozsea1, coquiero, Cintimcmomma, BlueJessamine, QuestionAuthority, marleycat, Element 61, dle2GA, tardis10, PhilJD, MinistryOfTruth, Imhotepsings, beforedawn, Wom Bat, Sunspots, Ezekial 23 20, Azazello, miles2go, APA Guy, Siri, Trotskyrepublican

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site