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Okay, just a simple diary exploring the diemma of our unexpectedly transparent government and Julian Assange. Assange made clear that if he was arrested he would be releasing more damaging documents that he had been holding as "insurance" against such reprisals. This story is laid out more fully here just in case anyone missed it.

Dilemma below the fold. Any spy novelists out there?

Premise One: The administration HAD to lean on Assange at the risk of looking weak and HAD to force a nuclear option to get all his cards up on the table. The idea that there was something that could be so damaging to our interests and reputation was more damaging than the information itself.

Premise Two: Assange is arrested on some very flimsy charges. Not wearing a condom? Cheating on the girlfriend? Jilted lovers seek to exact revenge? Is this just enough pressure to get Assange to push the "big red button"? Or is this just a light drizzle compared to a real rainy day?

Assange might be able to win this battle on the basis of our State department and Interpol overplaying its hand and preserve his "ammunition".

Premise Three: If Assange wants to keep it. It may be better for him to disclose now (with these relatively light conditions) than to escalate and have the ante be upped (I maintain that the Administration wants him to disclose and will keep pressuring him until he does). If he doesn't disclose his cache goes up and his 15 minutes of fame goes into overtime, but at what cost?

Premise Four: If Assange doesn't disclose look to see more charges and more heat brought to bear (which will confirm the Administrations desire for a more full disclosure). I'm convinced that Hillary and Company want this bomb to go off so they can send it into damage control.

This is going to get entertaining folks. See whose dirty laundry gets aired next week (or the next or the next). It's just like an onion and it keeps getting stinkier the deeper we get.

Thoughts? Flaws in premise?

Originally posted to 2dimeshift on Tue Dec 07, 2010 at 03:37 PM PST.


Will Julian

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