Don't Ask/Don't Tell repeal authorization, the DREAM Act, START ratification, and the Tax Cut Renewal (plus whatever else can be crammed into the bill) are all hurtling towards the end of the 111th Congress, sometime between now and January 4, and it looks like none of what we want might pass. (On the Tax Cuts, of course, we're convulsing over what we do want, but I sense that the strong feeling here is not to sully ourselves ratifying a policy that is more likely to do more harm than good.) It's a good time to take stock of what we're doing and what we want to accomplish.
While I think that the Tax Plus Whatever measure is extremely important, it's not lost on me that the most important thing we have to do this year is to keep Republicans out of power. This is not just the usual matter of Supreme Court appointments; it's a matter of policy. (Mitch McConnell is right when he said, in effect, that political victory is the primary means of policy victory. It's not a sufficient condition for the changes we want -- as we're seeing right now -- but it sure is necessary.)
While we're ripping each other to shreds (for good and understandable reasons) over the Tax Plus measure -- and while I have a dog in that race I'm going to try to put aside my rooting interest for the next few paragraphs -- I want us to keep an eye on the politics of the situation. Yes, I realize that this makes me Satan's manicurist or something, but political advantage always matters.
What I'd like to see more of -- even as we fight the Tax Plus battles -- is a unifying perspective on the other three battles taking place right now. I think that there is a unifying theme here, one that could, in effect, help us out in the Tax Plus battles as well. So, let's flog it. Ready for the Unifying Theme?
Republicans have stopped caring about National Security.
Say it loud, say it proud -- proud that you aren't a Republican, that is.
On START, that message is straightforward. START makes us safer. There is almost no argument about the merits. By not ratifying it so far, the Senate Republicans have already made us weaker -- we can't inspect Russian installations right now, and that has to tempt those inclined to cheat. We set an awful example for the world at a time we can least afford it. Why?
Because Republicans don't care about National Security.
On DADT, the message is almost as clear. We need strong, wise, good, and dedicated citizens in our Armed Forces, and the Republicans are denying us a portion of them by keeping out gays and lesbians for no valid reason. (That's what the Armed Services report places beyond reasonable argument: as we already knew, there is /no valid reason.) We undercut our own global security. Why?
Because Republicans don't care about National Security.
On the DREAM Act, we again are jettisoning our future engineers, teachers, officers, and business leaders for "offenses" they often did not even realize that they committed -- like being born abroad back before they can remember. We're getting rid of people who have proven they can contribute to our national success and squandering their educations and energy. Why?
Because Republicans don't care about National Security.
While we argue over Tax Plus, let's all take a moment to recall what unites us as well as what divides us.
Republicans don't care about National Security. And we do.
(And we also know that security is about more than avoiding invasion, but about avoiding destitution.)
Whatever other messages we send, we have to remind the voters of this one too. Republicans can only do what their doing on taxes (and on these other measures) because they don't think they'll be punished for it.
Again -- achieving (or threatening) political victory is part of achieving policy victory.
Let's put the fear of losing into them. It'll wise them up and help us out.
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I won't wade deeply into the Tax Plus bill debate -- I'd vote "no" for reasons explained in the e-mail I received below from the California Democratic Party's mostly wonderful Chair, John Burton, and also because as many argued today I think that Republicans will cave on UI and will deal on the rest -- especially once they realize that we can move to make the non-wealthy tax cuts permanent, and thus achieve "decoupling," every single week of the next session -- but there's one thing I noted while lurking on my iPhone earlier today that I do feel the need to share.
I used to teach Introductory Statistics. There's a famous book I sometimes used called "How to Lie with Statistics." Looking at the CNN Money chart reproduced in Eclectablog's diary today, I was reminded about what that book says about three dimensional graphs -- like the one today that depicts amounts of money not as bar charts, but as big round balls.
This is a way of cheating visually. If you want to compare items along a single dimension, you had better depict them linearly (or as, if you must use fancy three dimensional graphics, as poles that differ only in their length.) By using two dimensions, you give the sense that the differences are much greater than they are, because of the area each figure takes up. By using three dimensions, you cheat even more, suggesting that a one unit difference between two figures is much greater for extending into volume. So beware of people who cheat like that -- and I mean CNN -- in these debates.
Putting it graphically, here's a true comparison of the quantities 1 and 2:
.
versus
..
Here's cheating in two dimensions:
.
versus
..
..
Here's cheating in three dimensions (sort of):
.
versus
::
::
Each is the same comparison of something with value of "1" versus something with value of "2".
All but the first comparison is deceptive. Don't trust graphic statisticians who show you their balls.
So much for that. Here's what Burton had to say today:
What some might call it a "deal" or "compromise" I would call capitulation to the Republicans.
Just as we do not negotiate with international terrorists, we must stand up to the political terrorism of the Republicans in the United States Senate.
At some point, the American people have to know what kind of people these Republicans are. They may never find out if the Republicans can force their view point on the Administration, splitting the Democratic Party.
The Republicans rant against the deficit, but they give billions, approaching trillions, of tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires.
Click here to contact Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi to thank them for speaking out against this issue and having the Democratic Party stand for something.
You can also call their offices:
Harry Reid
Senate Majority Leader
Washington DC: (202) 224-3542
Nevada: (702) 388-5020
Nancy Pelosi
Speaker of the House
Washington DC: (202) 225-0100
San Francisco: (415) 556-4862
Peace and friendship,
John Burton
Chair
California Democratic Party
I like being a California Democrat. As I said yesterday (or so), if you are one as well, run for Assembly District Delegate by tomorrow's 5 p.m. deadline! Help this guy run our state party.