Several authors have tried to capture the drama of this moment - Dan Brown had a go at it and so did Father Greeley. But for us political junkies it may be the ultimate handicapping for us as we look at the players.
There are 180 Cardinals but only those under age 80 are allowed to play. This leaves 117. This according to Catholic World News http://www.cwnews.com/news/viewstory.cfm?recnum=36224
In addition, there is a camerlengo who supervises the administration of the Holy See during the transitional period. Among his first duties is the task of securing the papal apartments and declares the Pope dead. I don't believe he can be in the running either, but I am not an authority on this.
The current camerlengo is Cardinal Eduardo Martinez Somalo who would come to the fore with the Pontiff's death. The Spanish prelate, who is prefect of the Congregation for Religious.
One of the common wisdom sayings is that he who goes into the conclave as pope doesn't come out as pope - this from NPR Sylvia Pajouli (sp?). The current runners are German Cardinal Ratzinger, Battista Re and Angelo Sodano. If the Italians had their way the contenders would be archbishops Dionigi Tettamanzi, 70, of Milan, Angelo Scola, 63, of Venice, Tarcisio Bertone, 70, of Genoa, Angelo Sodano, 77, and Battista Re, 71. Also a contender is Cardinal Francis Arinze from Nigeria, 72 and Cardinal Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga of Honduras, at 62 seen as a dynamic churchman from Latin America. Both Latin America and Africa are seen as growth areas for Catholics.
And this bit, also from Catholic World News article:
Pope John Paul II has elevated 170 of the living cardinals, and all but 3 of those who will choose his successor.
So what will the Cardinals choose - growth? reactionary politics against change?
Although the Pope selected his Cardinals, it strikes me that they will have minds of their own to some extent. How do you all handicap it?