Apparently, the New York State Republican Party, which just regained control of the State Senate, now has set its eyes set on eliminating the 23rd District, currently represented by William "Bill" Owens (D - Plattsburgh) and carving it up amongst neighboring districts which just elected new GOP representatives (Gibson, Hanna, Buerkle).
Read this excerpt from a November 24, 2010 article in the National Journal:
Many Republicans would love to carve off Owens’s district: Give a piece to New York’s 20th congressional district, where Republican Chris Gibson was elected; give another piece to New York’s 25th, where Ann Marie Buerkle just won; then give another slice to New York’s 24th, which was picked up by Richard Hanna. That will force Owens to pick his poison come 2012.”
(http://www.nationalreview.com/...)
Rumors have also been surfacing for quite some time (since the March 2009 special election between Scott Murphy and Jim Tedisco) that Albany Democrats would love to carve up the 20th Congressional District instead. This move would likely give the North Country precincts (Warren, Washington, and Essex Counties) to Bill Owens, while absorbing the Albany suburbs (Saratoga, Rensselaer, and Columbia Counties) into Paul Tonko's district, with the balance being carved amongst Maurice Hinchey, as well as freshman Republicans Nan Hayworth and Richard Hanna.
In this circumstance, Chris Gibson would likely bite the bullet and opt to challenge Bill Owens in the North Country, as there would be little chance he could defeat either Paul Tonko or Maurice Hinchey due to the presence of rather strong progressive voting blocks (Albany, Ithaca, Ulster County) within their respective districts. Gibson's residency outside in Kinderhook (Columbia County) might be prove to be quite a challenge in the North Country, although New York State law still permits candidates to run for office or represent districts outside of where they declare their full-time residency - Remember Tedisco?
Although the northern counties of the current 23rd district lean Democratic, mainly due to their close proximity and media influence by the neighboring liberal bastions of Burlington, Montreal, and Ottawa, it could be difficult for Owens to overcome the well-entrenched, well-greased suburban Republican machines of Warren (and potentially Saratoga) Counties in a newly-drawn district.
However, all is not lost. Enter the dream-case scenario - Saranac Lake Tea Bagger/Glenn Beck-protege Doug Hoffman is already pondering another insurgent candidacy for Congress. In a potential Gibson vs. Owens matchup, Hoffman has the potential to once again split the right-leaning vote, thus handing Owens a third term, and defeating Gibson!
Another excerpt from the National Journal:
Hoffman, who ran in both 2009 and 2010, will not rule out a 2012 run. “It’s way too early to start talking about that,” he says. “At this point, I’m self-assessing, spending time with my family, and looking at ways to go forward.”
(http://www.nationalreview.com/...)
Other newspapers and blogs have already pondered over the possibility of an Owens-Gibson-Hoffman matchup:
From the Watertown Daily-Times:
"Or Douglas L. Hoffman, if he still hungers to replace Mr. Owens, won't face Mr. Doheny but newly elected Rep. Chris Gibson, R-Kinderhook, whose district already covers part of the Adirondacks, including Mr. Hoffman's home base in Lake Placid"
"The 23rd Congressional District basically is written out of existence, with eastern portions being wrapped into Mr. Gibson's district and western sections expanding southward and westward toward Utica, Syracuse and the Finger Lakes — the only directions available because the district already borders Canada, Vermont and Lake Ontario.
In that case, Mr. Owens likely would be thrown into the eastern district, and Watertown would become part of a separate district possibly encompassing more Democratic-leaning areas."
(http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/...)
From Kyle Stanley's perspectives:
"Recently, projections have emerged in which New York will lose two congressional seats in the next round of redistricting. That news came after I did the prospectus for the future Empire State delegation, which amounts to 28 districts. A lot can change between now and 2012, but these districts would have created a number of interesting opportunities:"
"22. Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls, much of the Adirondack Mountains, Plattsburgh, and an eastern portion of the upper Hudson Valley. (Murphy/Owens/Gibson/Hoffman) – swing district, leaned towards Obama"