First, let me say that there is no doubt that the congressional reapportionment news resulting from the census figures today is not good news for progressives, especially when it comes to the presidential election of 2012. For the most part, it increases the Electoral College clout of states that we would prefer not have it.
However, let's look at a few bright spots, at how things could turn in our favor in a best-case scenario.
But before I go there, I do want to point you to another fine diary on the subject of congressional districts, in case it falls off the rec list. Robert cruikshank's diary
Here are the potential bright spots:
- Adding numbers to the delegations of states like Texas does not necessarily mean you are adding numbers to the Republican column. As you have to fit more districts into Texas, that means you have to draw smaller districts. Drawing smaller districts increases the chances that there will be more districts with an African-American or a Latino majority or near-majority. Remember, the physical size of Texas has not changed. To make things simpler, imagine a rectangle with 32 boxes inside it. If you want to draw 34 boxes inside of it now, then each box gets smaller, increasing the chances that minorities will increase their political power in some of those boxes.
- I heard in some of the reporting today that Latino immigrants have increased the population of states like Texas, thereby increasing the number of districts Texas will have for the 2012 election. But those immigrants don't vote, or at least they can't until they're naturalized. So those district seats may be more likely to be won by Republicans. For now. But the sooner we can get them naturalized and registered, the sooner they can start to win some of those districts. In other words, an increase in the number of districts in Texas, for example, may work to the Republicans advantage in the 2012 election. But in elections after that, as more and more immigrants become naturalized and vote, they will move more and more Latino congresspersons into those slots. (I know there's the issue that many of those immigrants may not be here legally. And if they're not, then it's hard for them to become naturalized.)
- Democrats control the Justice Department at least up until January 2013. So we can hope that the Democrat-controlled DOJ will be more vigilant to make sure minorities are not hurt by districting schemes drawn up by Republican legislatures.
- Florida now has two more electoral votes. If the Democratic ticket can win this swing state in 2012, that will be a plus. But I realize that's a big if.
- For states that have lost congressional seats, but have Democratic majorities in the Legislature, the first thing those majorities should look at should be to rip apart districts currently represented by Republicans. That would be one way to reduce Republican seats in the Congress chosen in 2012.
The important thing in the next couple of years will be to drive up enthusiasm to bridge that enthusiasm gap so that we can take advantage of these bright spots. This means registering African-Americans who may not be registered and making sure that people who are registered get out to vote on Election Day. This also means urging those Latino immigrants who can be naturalized to go ahead and start the process to get naturalized. And then register to vote after that.
Beyond that, it comes down to Hope. Hope that the economy is booming and that Republicans shoot themselves in the foot when it comes time to choose a 2012 contender.
Update: Texas gains four new seats, not two. So where I talk above about increasing the number of boxes inside a rectangle to 34, I should have said 36.
Also, one other point I forgot: If the increase in population in states like Texas and Florida is due in part to people moving down from the northeast, for example, then they bring with them a kind of moderating principle. These newcomers are not likely to be as batshit-crazy conservative as the people who are already there. So that could increase the chances of Democratic victories and/or increase the chances of the election of moderate Republicans. I think you can credit that process, for example, to the election of Sen. Hagan in North Carolina and the fact that Barack Obama carried the state. It will be interesting to see if the increase in population in South Carolina results in any changes there.