The latest CNN poll shows that independents still hate Individual Mandates. While Dems support Mandates by a 54-44 margin, Indies oppose them by a 63-34 margin. IOW, the key demo that this WH intends to woo for 2012 opposes a key legislative achievement of this WH by almost a 2:1 margin.
As has been addressed extensively elsewhere, the question of whether the SCOTUS will ultimately find that Mandates pass constitutional muster will not be resolved for a few more years. Given the tendencies of the Roberts Court, predicting how it will rule on that issue is a dicey proposition at best. In the meantime, however, the WH will have an obvious political albatross around its neck as it gears up for re-election.
This WH has pretty well made it clear at this point that "the professional left" will have to take whatever it's giving us, esp since the alternative will be Romney, Huckabee, or You Know Who in 2012. They're consciously gearing themselves to appeal to those elusive indies:
Since his midterm election drubbing, President Obama has followed what seems like a wobbly course, taking one step to the left, then two to the right. The pattern, now reinforced by his tentative tax deal with Republicans, has pleased GOP adversaries while infuriating allies on the left.
But viewed through the lens of re-election politics, the strategy forged by the White House becomes clearer. The president is appealing to the independent voters who handed him one of the worst midterm setbacks in decades.
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"We have to get (the independents) back," said a senior White House adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity while discussing internal strategy.
In all honesty, I'm not sure what's the biggest tragedy here--the fact that the Dem base currently approves of Uncle Sam forcing people to buy whatever crap Humana is selling, or the fact that the target market clearly hates it. It's a lose/lose scenario all the way around. Mandates are bad policy and they're worse politics.
I'll be interested to see how the Obama Brain Trust handles this potentially toxic issue in the coming months. Seeking re-election in an economy that will still be subpar will be tough enough as it is. The GOP will break the bank running ads in 2012 reminding swing voters how much they hate a cornerstone legislative achievement of the incumbent's.
It will likely be a difficult circle to square.