Arizona. The Grand Canyon State, home to two of America's faster growing cities, Tucson and Phoenix. More importantly for our purposes, Arizona has a 2006 Senate race up on deck. So lets take a look, shall we?
As far as 2006 Senate races go, I'd classify it as a Tier B race. PA, NE, MN, TN, and VA (if Warner runs), are Tier A races. Just below them are what I'd term tier B+ races in MO and NV. AZ and WA are the Tier Bs.
A lot of people have said that unless he is to retire, Senator John Kyl will easily be able to win re-election in the Grand Canyon State.
I beg to differ. Here's why:
- First off, Kyl hasn't had to run a real campaign since 1994, the year of the Republican tidle wave which swept Newt Gingrich into office with him. Kyl got a pass in 2000 and had no Democratic opponent (in God's name I have no clue why). Twelve years is a long time, and as we've seen with Phil Crane in Illinois, having to run a campaign for the first time in a long while can lead to defeat.
- Arizona is a LOT less Republican than it was in 1994. The current Governor, Janet Napolitano is a wonderful Democrat (who gave a fantastic speech at the convention), and we're the west is the one area in the country in which we're making steady inroads in the country.
- The real pwer in Arizona lies with independent voters who tend to side largely with what John McCain thinks. If the Republican Sente leadership butts heads with the senior Senator (and I predict they will), there could be a backlash against Kyl, who is much more conservative than McCain.
So there's the reasoning why Kyl is vulnerable. Now the question is, who should we run against him.
To answer that question, first, lets talk about how a Democrat would go about carrying the state.
To win, a Democrat must do the following
- Pile up large margins in Tucson's Pima County.
- Win Decisively in Northern Arizona (basically Arizona's 1st Congressional District) which will help you offset losses in the other rural parts of the state.
- Break somewhere close to even in Phoenix's Maricopa County.
The hardest area for Democrats to do well in is the third. Maricopa is the place that has an ultra-conservative nut sheriff (named Arapahoe Joe IIRC) who prides himself on spending more money on food for his guard dogs than on the food of the inmates. And Maricopa loves the guy. That's what we have to deal with. But its not impossible. Janet did it, and its getting easier every year as we get smarter about dealing with Western issues and the demographics shift in our favor.
So, getting back to who we should pick to run for the seat. A lot of folks say Janet should do it. I don't. I think she's more valuable where she is and I want her to keep building her resume, perhaps for a Presidential run in 2008. Plus, we need a Democrat to balance out the Republican state legislature (R majorities in both chambers.
I also don't think she should run because there's another Arizona Democrat who has won rave reviews (good enough to have reached me in South Carolina anyways).
Basically, we need a Democrat with statewide recognition who can do especially well in Phoenix.
There is such a creature, and one that may be very well suited to the race.
Attorney General Terry Goddard is a former four term Mayor of Phoenix (1983-1990). That alone may be enough for us to make serious inroads in Maricopa. He's got a very good record including:
-spearheaded an effort to bring City Council Districts to Phoenix in 1982
-named Municipal Leader of the Year by City and County Magazine and elected President of the National League of Cities
-from 1995 to 2002, Goddard was Arizona State Director for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Here's his bio:
http://www.ag.state.az.us/bio.html
Here's a data on how we win AZ:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/GOVERNOR/GENERAL/gov_data.php?fips=04&year=2002&datatype=coun
ty
Here's a really good article about Democratic inroads in the West:
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041206&s=nichols