Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/15/2010-2/18/2010. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
| FAVORABLE | UNFAVORABLE | NET CHANGE |
---|
PRESIDENT OBAMA | 56 (56) | 40 (41) | +1 |
| | | |
PELOSI: | 39 (39) | 51 (52) | +1 |
REID: | 24 (25) | 66 (65) | -2 |
McCONNELL: | 18 (19) | 64 (63) | -2 |
BOEHNER: | 18 (19) | 63 (61) | -3 |
| | | |
CONGRESSIONAL DEMS: | 38 (39) | 59 (58) | -2 |
CONGRESSIONAL GOPS: | 18 (20) | 66 (65) | -3 |
| | | |
DEMOCRATIC PARTY: | 39 (40) | 55 (55) | -1 |
REPUBLICAN PARTY: | 30 (31) | 61 (60) | -2 |
Full crosstabs here. This poll is updated every Friday morning, and you can see trendline graphs here.
This week's installment of the Daily Kos State of the Nation Tracking Poll shows an electorate that is fairly stable, but also pretty darned grumpy, as well. Nobody gains favorability this week, as an incremental change in unfavorabilities give the slightest of bumps to President Obama and Speaker Pelosi. Everybody else cedes some ground this week, regardless of party.
Other indicators of voter malaise--the right track/wrong track metric remains decidedly soft, sitting at a 38/59 spread. Perhaps President Obama's net favorability has been resurrected somewhat after the SOTU address, but it is clear that voter optimism has not recovered similarly:
If there is any good news for the Democrats this week, it is that the gap in voter intensity has closed somewhat over the past few weeks. The closing of the gap, however, has not been owed to any resurgence in Democratic voter interest. It has been owed almost exclusively to a marked decline in Republican voter intensity.
Even though GOP voters still lap the field in terms of voter interest, net voter intensity for the Republicans have dropped markedly in three weeks. During the week of the SOTU address, 80% of GOP voters were likely or certain to vote. This week, it is down to 73%. During the same time frame, Democratic voter intensity has upticked by a single point (from 52% to 53%).
This is good news for the Democrats, but only if the party can find a way to inspire their base. While the gap has narrowed modestly, it is still a serious gap, and a gap that would remains perilous for Democratic electoral chances.