ABB is a wishful thinking of democratic partisans, It will NOT win in this election if they continue to roll out an outdated product-Kerry.
In my opinion, there're four election models.
- Fire up your base but don't offend the independent or mainstream. Bush achieved this by his notorious 'compassionate conservative'. He fired up the base but masterfully used his 'likeability' to deceive his true color. Thatcher, Reagan are another typical examples, the interesting thing is that if they're in power, they usually can clentch the power for a long period of time even in terms of crisis.
- New middle-ground model. Clinton, Tony Blair are successful examples, but this model requires the tremedous charisma of a leader. Usually your policy is at odds with your base, the only thing to make up is lip service. These types of leaders usually are critized as not-trustworthy, spineless as evidenced in Clinton, Blair. Lieberman is desperately trying this one, but he can not win since he's lacking the charisma to woo the base.
- Maverick/outside model, It's a long shot, but when people are embracing for change, you may win. Carter is an example.
- Traditional party establishment model, this is obvious. This model can usually win when you're in power and people are not ready for a change. It seldom works for the opposition party unless people are really ready for a change. Sr. Bush's first term was an example, Bob Dole, Gore's failure are another examples.
In my opinion, Kerry is using the typical party establishment model, if you're in power, this may work. But kerry's weaknesses are obvious.
- He can not fire up the base, his war vote really hurt him a lot.
- His personalities are big minus for independents like me. His continuing pandering, waffling is really troublesome.
- He will be easily labelled as a MA liberal.
This is Kerry's dilema. If he tries to fire up the base by lip-serving, first of all, it may not work, second, it will reinforce his extreme lieberal image; If he tries to woo the 'conservatives', he will anger the base. What makes things worse is that his back-and-forth will reinforce his pandering, unauthentic imagery.
That's why i have concluded he will be a disaster for democratic party in 2004 unless Bush really screws up big time. But this scenario is very unlikely, in 2002, the economy was so bad, but people still voted for him. BTW, if he really screws up big time, even a monkey can beat him.
On the other hand, Dean, Clark, Lieberman, Edwards all have weaknesses, but they all have strenths, these weaknesses and strenths can cancel out to some extent, but for an uphill battle like 2004, perhaps that's the risk democartic party should take.
I really don't see how ABB works if Kerry gets the nomination. The party will be totally toast.
He just does not have the charisma to overcome the hurdles.
ABB is a fantasy for democratic faithful, of course, it works for those partisans 90% of the time. These party faithful ALWAYS vote along party line. But the question is the election is decided by 3-4% of the independents or die-hard lefties. I just don't see how Kerry can pull this off.
At least, there's no way I can vote for Kerry, for me, I'm always for underdog, I just don't see any attractive traits from him. I will contribute to that 3-4% margin, YAHHHHHHHHHH.
If Kerry gets the nomination, It's interesting to watch this unfolding drama, I will feel extremely revenged if democratic party loses big time in 2004.