UNH/WMUR has a new round of polls of the New Hampshire races.
NH-Sen:
UNH for WMUR. 1/27-2/3. Likely voters. MoE 4.7%. (10/09 results)
Kelly Ayotte (R) 41% (40)
Paul Hodes (D) 33% (33)
Ovide Lamontagne (R) 29% (28)
Paul Hodes (D) 38% (37)
Jim Bender (R) 27%
Paul Hodes (D) 36%
Bill Binnie (R) 30%
Paul Hodes (D) 34%
NH-01:
UNH for WMUR. 1/27-2/3. Likely voters. MoE 6.2%.
Carol Shea-Porter (D) 33%
Frank Guinta (R) 43%
Carol Shea-Porter (D) 33%
Rich Ashooh (R) 36%
Carol Shea-Porter (D) 33%
Bob Bestani (R) 36%
NH-02:
UNH for WMUR. 1/27-2/3. Likely voters. MoE 6.2%
Ann McLane Kuster (D) 28%
Charlie Bass (R) 39%
Ann McLane Kuster (D) 25%
Jennifer Horn (R) 28%
Katrina Swett (D) 30%
Charlie Bass (R) 37%
Katrina Swett (D) 30%
Jennifer Horn (R) 26%
Well, that's a lot to discuss. First off, my very serious issues with UNH polling are well documented, so the grains of salt I take any of their polls with are measured in the tens of thousands. (The same was true when the UNH poll of the MA-Sen special election was the most positive for Coakley.)
Also, note the monster margin of error in the House match-ups.
That said, the results for the Senate race are similar to those in the recent Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos, and that fits the general picture of the race. Kelly Ayotte is, for now, in the lead by a relatively small margin.
Things don't look great for Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01. Shea-Porter is a fighter and she has a history of exceeding expectations on election day, but she also has a target on her back painted not just by the Republican party but by the heavily Republican press in her district. Neither Ashooh nor Bestani is at all well-known, so in a sense those match-ups represent Shea-Porter vs. a generic Republican.
In NH-02, name recognition is really the name of the game. As the district's congressman from 1995-2007, Charlie Bass has much higher name recognition than anyone else in this race. Katrina Swett ran in the district in 2002 and briefly ran for Senate in 2007, and Jennifer Horn ran for this seat in 2008; they have very similar name recognition. Trailing all of them is Ann McLane Kuster, who has not previously run and is unknown by 87% of respondents. Given that, these head-to-heads really just show a wide-open race.