With all due respect to Mr. Gump, life isn't like a box of chocolates. It's true that individual events and paths may be unpredictable, and that miracles do sometimes happen.
But from a distant view, life is difficult, history runs in drearily predictable patterns, and almost every piece of progress comes as a result of bitter struggle and negotiation rather than sweet surprise.
Real life, rather, is more like a game of poker. In almost every aspect of our lives, we assess our situation and look for ways to improve it to get what we want. We have to know when to go all in--and when to fold. And we have to know when to bluff, and when to show our cards.
This key point has been lost on many in the progressive community when dealing with the healthcare debate, particularly those who cannot understand why smart, passionate activists like Ed Schulz and Markos Moulitsas have seemingly performed an about-face on healthcare reform. There is real anger among some progressives who feel that their erstwhile allies on the blogs and in the traditional media have seemingly turned their backs on the hope of real reform, choosing instead to side with moderate Democrats on a corporate-friendly watered-down healthcare bill.
The chasm between these two groups was opened wide when Dennis Kucinich announced that he would be willing to be the deciding vote against the healthcare legislation, setting off furious criticism among many at DailyKos and elsehwere, including threats of primary challenges in 2012. In response, FDL now has popular articles with titles like Markos Moulitsas should primary himself and What the hell is up with kos?.
This really shouldn't require an explanation. One should never reveal one's negotiating tactics, or telegraph to the rest of the table one's poker strategies, lest one's best bluffs be routinely called in the future. But it seems necessary that some explanation be given, lest those of us who fought hard for the public option and told lawmakers to "kill the bill" just a few months ago now be ridiculed for inconsistency by those who should by all rights be allies.
The first thing that needs to be understood is that failure to pass healthcare reform this year would be both a policy and a political disaster. Democrats will appear absolutely unable to govern, and voters will punish them severely in November--thereby killing chances at healthcare reform probably for at least a decade if not longer. And without reform, we will have a policy disaster:
Up to 17 million more people will be uninsured by 2019, and as many as 275,000 people could die prematurely over the next 10 years because they don't have health insurance.
The second thing to understand is that March 2010 is not August 2009. Back in the heady days of mid-late 2009, members of Congress were still putting their fingers to the wind (and looking hard at the threat of insurance industry money) to determine their stance on healthcare. More importantly, we didn't yet have actual bills passed in the House and Senate. Scott Brown was considered a long-shot candidate in Massachusetts. And there was still time to deal with healthcare, and move to other legislative priorities in advance of the midterm elections.
In short, there was a lot of room to negotiate at the time. There was some real room to bluff; real methods to play hard to get; and adequate time to persuade.
We no longer have any of those. The situation now is as follows:
- Whatever happens, must happen quickly or not at all.
- Stances on healthcare reform have hardened significantly for nearly all legislators.
- Whatever deals were going to be made, have basically already been made.
In short, the time for bluffing and negotiation is at an end. The final deal (Senate bill + reconciliation) is basically written in stone. Now the only question is whether that deal will pass, or not--and who will be allied with whom in that coming battle.
Republicans don't want this deal to pass.
Many blue dogs don't want this deal to pass.
Without the support of progressives in the caucus, this deal will not pass.
Those like Kucinich who still threaten to kill the bill are no longer using leverage to get a better bill. They are saboteurs who are actively making the perfect the enemy of the good for their own reasons having nothing to do with achieving better healthcare for America.
Kucinich and his ilk are promising that if we just clap louder for single-payer healthcare and really believe, we'll open that box of chocolates and miracles will happen.
What will actually happen is that Rush Limbaugh and the Republican hordes will call your bluff and take all your chips, laughing all the way to the bank as we get escorted out of the casino, shouting into the dry Vegas air about the injustice of it all. That's not the church of the savvy; that's just reality.
It's time, at long last, to show our cards and pass this reform. One more bluff, and we really will lose everything.