This past year I've been obsessed with the issue of voter intensity. While Democrats continue to hold their ground on voter preference (generic congressional numbers), their biggest danger moving into the fall was a lack of excitement and energy on our side. Coupled with the extremely (and violently) high intensity on the other side, it mattered little if voters preferred Democrats, if the voters at the polls were overwhelmingly Republican.
Every week, we track voter intensity in our weekly state of the nation poll. Look at the numbers from the last three weeks:
QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?
3/8-10 3/15-18 3/22-25
Dem GOP Dem GOP Dem GOP
Def vote 20 25 23 27 27 29
Vote 20 26 22 29 28 33
Not Likely 28 19 27 18 22 15
Def not vote 4 2 4 3 3 2
Not sure 28 28 24 23 20 21
This is astonishing. Three weeks ago, 40 percent of Democrats were likely or definitely going to vote, compared to 51 percent of Republicans -- an 11 point "intensity gap". Two weeks ago, as the battle for health care reform heated up, and GOP obstructionism came in full view, the numbers were 45 percent for Democrats, 56 percent for Republicans -- both sides equally riled up.
This week, the numbers are 55 percent for Democrats, 62 percent for Republicans. While both sides saw big spikes in their numbers, Democrats were particularly energized, with that intensity gap narrowing from 11 points to a far more manageable seven.
We said it all along -- give us a reason to get excited and fight, and Democrats will get excited and itch for a fight. Heck, you can see it in our traffic numbers!
But we still can't declare victory. We still face an intensity gap, and one that will make it far more difficult to hold our ground so long as it persists. So Democrats, go full-throated populist against Wall Street, against banks, against obstructionist Republicans. End DADT, pass comprehensive immigration reform (or at least vote on it, let the GOP nuke it if they must), and show Democrats that you kind of like this "victory" thing and want to taste more of it.
If you do all that, we can eliminate the intensity gap. And if the intensity gap is gone, Republicans will be hard pressed to make anything more than just marginal gains.