Wow, this would be explosive:
House Democrats are considering backing former Rep. Ed Case in Hawaii’s competitive winner-take-all special election next month, a move that would run counter to the endorsements of the Aloha State’s two Senators.
Several sources with knowledge of the situation said that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is inclined to support Case over state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who has the support of Hawaii Democratic Sens. Daniel K. Inouye and Daniel K. Akaka, organized labor and EMILY’s List.
The contest carries high stakes for Democrats, given that the district is where President Barack Obama spent his formative years and it typically votes overwhelmingly for Democrats. But since the May 22 mail-in election is winner-take-all and features two well-known Democrats, there is an opening for Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou to be competitive and give the GOP a shot at pulling off a major upset.
CQ doesn't really get into the "why" of choosing Case over Hanabusa except to say:
But according to sources familiar with the committee’s considerations, national Democrats see several weaknesses in Hanabusa’s candidacy stemming mostly from her tenure in the state Legislature.
Hanabusa’s second campaign spot of the cycle, for example, boasted she “cut legislative salaries,” but she was maligned in the press last week for taking a pay raise while she made the cut.
Granted, the ad flub wasn't very pretty. And many people don't have especially warm feeling towards state legislatures these days. But not only does Hanabusa have the support of pretty much the entire political establishment in Hawaii, she's also a much stronger fundraiser than Case. Indeed, she's expected to report $400K raised in Q1, while Case hasn't offered an estimate and very likely raised less (he's generally lagged in fundraising). Then of course there's also the fact that supporting the conservative Case - a hardcore DLCer in the Joe Lieberman/Harold Ford mold - in a district this blue would be a big thumb in the eye to progressives. (Yes, favorite son Barack Obama inflated the vote totals in his home state, but John Kerry won it 53-47 and Al Gore won it 55-39.)
Now, I appreciate that the unusual nature of this all-party "jungle" election might force the DCCC to make some unusual choices here, since a split Democratic vote could allow Djou, the Republican, to sneak through, perhaps with even less than 40% of the vote. And maybe they have polling showing some tough negatives for Hanabusa. But backing Case might not forestall such a split - in fact, it could very well backfire and sour the race between the two Democrats even further. (If you've been following the teabaggers at all, you know there's been a lot of bad blood in GOP primaries where the DC establishment has tried to pick favorites.) I have a sinking feeling in my stomach about how this one will play out.