As you may know, the approval ratings of all 50 governors were polled by SUSA. This will have implications in 2006. Read below the jump...
Here are some of the governors that are thought to be vulnerable in 2006, with approval ratings:
Dave Freudenthal D-Wyoming: 67%
Jodi Rell R-Connecticut: 66%
Brad Henry D-Oklahoma: 59%
Kathleen Sebelius D-Kansas: 54%
Tim Pawlenty R-Minnesota: 54%
Ed Rendell D-Pennsylvania: 48%
Sonny Perdue R-Georgia: 47%
Bob Ehrlich R-Maryland: 46%
Mitt Romney R-Massachusetts: 41%
Jim Doyle D-Wisconsin: 41%
Arnold Schwarzenegger R-California: 40%
Bob Riley R-Alabama: 36%
Rod Blagojevich D-Illinois: 36%
Jennifer Granholm D-Michigan: 36%
George Pataki R-New York: 36%
Ted Kulongoski D-Oregon: 36%
Frank Murkowski R-Alaska: 27%
Now, as we learned all too painfully last year, approval ratings don't equal election results. For example, I believe that Frank Murkowski will be reelected even with that atrocious approval rating. Same with Dems Kulongoski, Baldacci of Maine, and Blagojevich. Meanwhile, Jodi Rell I would still call vulnerable because she is neck-in-neck with her most likely challenger, Dick Blumenthal. So, popularity doesn't necessarily equal reelection, and unpopularity doesn't necessarily equal ousting.
That said, it's a shame that the least popular Governor in America, Bob Taft of Ohio (approval rating 19%), is term-limited. It sure would be great to beat him.
Oddly, many red state Democrats (Sebelius, Henry, Freudenthal, Napolitano in Arizona, Warner in Virginia) are very popular. But some red state Republicans (Daniels in Indiana, Blunt in Missouri, Barbour in Mississippi, Perdue, Riley, Murkowski) are unpopular. Whassup wid dat?
This definitely changes who is considered vulnerable, especially on our side. Freudenthal, Sebelius, and Henry could well be off the list now, with Doyle, Kulongoski, and Rendell joining it. The GOP results aren't as surprising.
What this means is this: we will be playing defense big time in the Great Lakes (Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin) and in Pennsylvania and Oregon, with much of the West (Kansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, New Mexico...) secure. Republicans will be playing defense big time in both blue states (Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, California...) and, surprisingly, their safest states (Alabama, Georgia, Alaska...). Meanwhile, they have a bunch of open seats to defend, like Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and Arkansas, that are winnable for Democrats.
Interesting.