If there is any night in the 2010 primary elections calendar that merits the designation of "Super Tuesday", it has to be the night that awaits us in roughly 48 hours. Not only does June 8th take the cake when it comes to volume, as voters go the polls in a dozen states, but it is also a night that will clarify the electoral picture in several of the most high-profile races on the docket for November.
So, let's take it state-by-state, crisscrossing the nation to look at a night where the number of intriguing matchups numbers, on my scorecard, in the low forties...
ARKANSAS: AR-Sen, AR-01, AR-02, AR-03
For a lot of people in the netroots, the post-primary runoff election in the Natural State is priority #1 for Tuesday evening. In the battle to determine the Democratic nominee for the Senate, it is hard not to designate incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln as a slight underdog going into the evening. As Markos has accurately noted on numerous occasions, Lincoln's poll numbers have scarcely budged off of the 45% or so that she attained in the May 18th primary elections. A lot of third-place finisher D.C. Morrison's voters are staying home, but those that aren't are more likely to head to Halter than Lincoln. That has moved the challenger from a narrow deficit to a narrow lead. This one should be mighty interesting.
Meanwhile, there are also a trio of House runoffs to be decided, as well. In AR-01, the Democrats are squaring off, with the Chief of Staff for outgoing Congressman Marion Berry (Chad Causey) squaring off with ConservaDem Tim Wooldridge. Wooldridge led after round one, but Causey has chalked up the better runoff endorsements (including former President Clinton). Next door in AR-02, it is a classic right vs. left showdown between state House Speaker Robbie Wills and progressive state senator Joyce Elliott. Elliott held a 40-28 lead after the first round, and earned the endorsement of third-place finisher (and outgoing Rep. Vic Snyder's CoS) David Boling. Finally, there is quite a battle of conservatives in the GOP primary to replace Senate nominee John Boozman AR-03. Look for a showdown between round one leader Steve Womack (the mayor of Rogers) and state senator Cecile Bledsoe, the latest Republican to feel the (reverse?) Midas Touch of a Sarah Palin endorsement.
CALIFORNIA: CA-Gov, CA-Sen, CA-08, CA-11, CA-19, CA-36, CA-42
The Golden State will be the final act in Election Night (indeed, it will likely be after midnight before East Coasters see a critical mass of data emanating from California), but it should have some results worth staying up late for.
The two major statewide races have turned a bit more dull in the final days, as what promised to be tight primaries on the GOP side have seen clear leaders emerge. In the battle for Governor, Meg Whitman has resumed her flood the zone media strategy, and it has paid off with a late resurgence and a reclamation of her substantial lead over state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. On the Democratic side, Jerry Brown's nomination is all but a foregone conclusion.
And while Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer does have a primary in her bid to remain in the Senate, virtually no one expects Mickey Kaus' primary to bear fruit. The excitement was supposed to have been on the GOP side, but former HP executive Carly Fiorina has pulled away in the closing days, and now is looking at a potential double-digit win over both former Congressman Tom Campbell and teabagger favorite Chuck DeVore.
There are nip-and-tuck contests to be had, however, down the ballot. One of those will take place in the Central Valley (CA-19), where state senator Jeff Denham seems to have a bit of daylight between him and the pack, which includes former Fresno Mayor Jim Patterson and former Congressman Richard Pombo, who jumped districts to take a shot at a comeback. Further north, where CA-11 goes from the East Bay to the Central Valley, several Republicans are lining up to take a shot at Democratic sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, including another district hopper in the person of 2009 (CA-10) special election candidate David Harmer. Southern California, meanwhile, has a pair of incumbents that are looking at potentially explosive primary challenges. Along the L.A. coast, Jane Harman (CA-36) faces a second contest with peace activist Marcy Winograd. Meanwhile, in inland LA/Orange County (CA-42), longtime Republican Rep. Gary Miller is getting a potential teabagging from self-financing CPA Phil Liberatore. Lastly, in a sign that fools and money are soon parted, over $2.3 million has been raised between a pair of Republican candidates vying to take on Speaker Nancy Pelosi in CA-08, one of the most Democratic districts in America. Walsh spent over $637K in 2008 to earn the honor of 10% of the vote versus Pelosi (she actually came in third, behind Pelosi and Indie candidate Cindy Sheehan). This year, she did more than double down, raising nearly $1.7 million. Not to be outdone, her primary opponent, Paul-ite candidate John Dennis, has put together a mid-six figure warchest of his own.
Democrats everywhere should presumably thank the small but vibrant community of anti-Pelosi activists for tossing away seven figures worth of cash that could have gone into tight races, but instead will be funnelled into a district where the Republican would shatter all existing records to get 35% of the vote.
IOWA: IA-Gov, IA-Sen, IA-01, IA-02, IA-03
In Iowa, the race to watch is a coronation gone somewhat awry for former GOP Governor Terry Branstad. Every expectation was that Branstad, a former four-term Governor in the state, would cruise to a primary win and then defeat Democratic incumbent Chet Culver to reclaim his post as Governor in November. The problem is that his primary win is by no means assured. Branstad has been getting bludgeoned from the right by activist candidate Bob Vander Plaats. This has created an ideological fault line between activist social conservatives and the "country club" set focused almost solely on economic affairs. Polls in this race have been all over the map. After two polls last week showed Vander Plaats holding Branstad under 50% and within striking range, a Sunday poll taken for the Des Moines Register gave Branstad a huge lead (57-29), though half of the voters identified themselves as still persuadable, even at this late date.
Culver has to be hoping for a Vander Plaats upset (Culver polls much better against the lesser known, more conservative underdog) or, failing that, permanent damage to be done to Branstad in a close primary.
Democrats are concerning themselves, meanwhile, with a primary to challenge longtime incumbent Chuck Grassley for his seat in the Senate. Attorney Roxanne Conlin is the candidate of choice for national Democrats, and she is heavily favored over poorly funded rivals Tom Fiegen and Bob Krause. General election polling has been all over the map in this state, with some pollsters suggesting that Grassley, who has not been held 60% of the vote since his initial Senate win three decades ago, could be in for an actual battle against Conlin.
Meanwhile, downballot, there are competitive GOP primaries in all three Democratic-held districts. Bruce Braley (IA-01) is probably the safest of the three, with a 16-to-1 funding edge over his most well-financed GOP challenger (former Hill staffer Ben Lange). In IA-02, it is a re-run of the 2008 Senate primary, as Harkin opponents Christopher Reed and Steve Rathje meet again (joined by 2008 House nominee Marianette Miller-Meeks and first-time candidate Rob Gettemy) in a bid to take on sophomore Democrat David Loebsack. The most competitive primary, however, might be in the Des Moines-based IA-03, where the field is large enough, and closely bunched enough, that a little-practiced quirk in Iowa election law will take effect. If no candidate hits 35% of the vote on Tuesday night (a possibility also in the 2nd district), then a special convention will need to be held to determine the party's nominee.
MAINE: ME-Gov
In Maine, the story is the race for Governor, and the almost absurdly wide-open battles on both sides of the partisan aisle. Even with a pretty good memory for polling, it is hard to recall a race where, roughly a week out, neither primary had a candidate commanding more than 17% of the vote. Yet such is the case down East, where Democrat Libby Mitchell and Republican Les Otten appear to be the narrow frontrunners. The general election could easily be just as muddled, with no less than eleven Independent candidates declaring an interest in the office.
NEVADA: NV-Sen and NV-Gov
Most of the attention in the Silver State is focused on the Senate, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has struggled for most of the cycle with abysmal poll numbers. Reid does face a handful of challengers in a Democratic primary, but no expects him to lose. There might be some interest, however, in looking at his vote totals. If his percentage is markedly low, for example, that could be a sign for concern in the Fall. Reid's path to victory has gotten easier in the past month or so, however, because Sue Lowden's once frontrunning campaign has positively imploded. A weekend poll from Mason Dixon now had Lowden running third (23%), behind both former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (32%) and Danny Tarkanian (24%). Clearly, the Reid campaign is guessing that the hard-right Angle will be the nominee, as they have started a research job on the past public statements and policy pronouncements of Angle.
Meanwhile, Reid's son is the runaway favorite in the Democratic Primary for Governor, while the GOP primary is also quickly becoming settled, as well. After a brief and blissful (for Democrats, anyway) moment where it looked like scandal-ridden Governor Jim Gibbons might hang onto his job, recent polling has put former federal judge Brian Sandoval back into the lead by a solid double-digit margin.
SOUTH CAROLINA: SC-Gov, SC-Sen, SC-01, SC-03, SC-04
There are a lot of races on tap in the Palmetto State, but the race that everyone is watching is the primary to replace disgraced Governor Mark Sanford. Sex became the front-and-center issue in the closing days of the campaign, amid allegations that frontrunner Nikki Haley (another in the stable of Sarah Palin endorsees) had an extramarital affair with Republican staffer-turned-blogger Will Folks. Haley seems to have held her lead, and still is favored over state Attorney General Henry McMaster, state Lt. Governor Andre Bauer, and Congressman Gresham Barrett. She will probably need to wait two weeks, however, as she is unlikely to score enough votes to avoid a runoff. Meanwhile, an equally close contest might develop on the Democratic side, where state Education Superintendent Jim Rex is battling with the well-financed Vincent Sheheen, a state Senator. Fellow state senator Robert Ford rounds out the Dem field.
Republican incumbent Jim DeMint actually faces a Senate primary from Susan Gaddy, who might have the most comprehensive website since the dawn of the Internet. Meanwhile, Vic Rawls is favored over on the Democratic side.
Downballot, there are stacked primaries in SC-01 and SC-03 to replace outgoing Republican Congressmen Henry Brown and Gresham Barrett. In the 1st district, it is the battle of the famous progeny as the children of Strom Thurmond and Carroll Campbell (whose son has the wonderful nickname of "Tumpy") are among the nine candidates in the GOP field. In the 3rd district, a half dozen Republicans are vying for the nomination, which is tantamount to election in the heavily Republican 3rd. Meanwhile, a number of Republicans are gunning for Bob Inglis in SC-04, presumably for the crime of straying for the orthodoxy a time or two.
VIRGINIA: VA-01, VA-02, VA-05, VA-11
With no statewide races, all the interest in the Virginia primaries is downballot, where four Republican primaries are definitely worth eyeballing. A personal favorite is in eastern Virginia (VA-01) where incumbent Rob Wittman is getting teabagged by one of the original teabagger candidates, Catherine "Ballots or Bullets" Crabill. A half-dozen Republicans are up for the challenge against Democratic freshman Glenn Nye in VA-02, which could get interesting since Virginia is one of the only Southern states NOT to have a runoff election. In VA-05, another freshman Democrat (Tom Perriello) has drawn a crowd, with establishment candidate Rob Hurt getting hammered from all sides. Divided opposition might be his ticket to victory. Lastly, one of the more intriguing high-profile primaries of the cycle happens in NoVa (VA-11), where Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity and 2008 nominee Keith Fimian go heads-up.
OTHER CONTESTS
There are five other states going to the ballot box on Tuesday, but the contests there are not drawing quite the same level of attention. In Georgia, a new Congressman will be elected as Republicans Tom Graves and Lee Hawkins try to out-flank one another on the right wing in their bid to replace Nathan Deal in GA-09, one of the reddest districts in America. Meanwhile, in the Plains, the battle for SD-Gov, if Rasmussen is to be believed, could dictate whether the Democrats have a legit shot at victory in this red-leaning state. Unopposed Democrat Scott Heidepriem actually polls well against some of the GOP flock vying to be Governor. Heidepriem might need to wait a while, however, as South Dakota is practically the only state outside the South to utilize a runoff (which will take place on June 29th). A runoff might also be needed in SD-AL, where Secretary of State Chris Nelson leads a three-candidate GOP field challenging three-term Democrat Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.
Elections are also on tap in Montana, New Jersey, and North Dakota.