With our first balloting in a couple of weeks out of the way last night (results to follow), we turn our full attention back to the elections that still remain off in the distance.
New polling is most assuredly mixed, but even Rasmussen has some decent news for Democrats today. We also have Sharron Angle headed back to the zoo (yes, again...), a possible endorsement of a Democratic Congressman by his GOP predecessor, and David Vitter not feeling the love in the Pelican State.
All this (and...more!) in the decidedly rotund Wednesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
AK-Sen: Teabaggers start boosting their guy, exaggerates his bio
The Tea Party Express have now begun what they promise will be a seven-figure campaign to successfully teabag incumbent GOP Senator Lisa Murkowski. The TPE have dropped $100K on an introductory radio ad campaign on behalf of Murkowski's primary rival, Joe Miller. The ads, however, have a factual error caught by a reader of the Anchorage Daily News: the ad hails Miller as a "federal judge". Miller was a federal magistrate, and there is quite a bit of difference between the two.
AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth circling the drain, according to new poll
This one is a real eye opener, folks--a new Rocky Mountain Poll out today from the Behavior Research Center (a pretty prolific pollster in the Grand Canyon State) has incumbent Senator John McCain absolutely laying waste to insurgent challenger (and infomercial maven) J.D. Hayworth. Apparently, learning that Hayworth was a pro-federal grant variation of Miss Cleo has not sat well with the Arizona GOP electorate: McCain now leads 64-19.
FL-Sen: Upstart candidate's campaign in early staff shake-up
A little bit of a surprise from the Sunshine State: wealthy campaign newcomer Jeff Greene, who has only been in the race for a couple of months, is already losing his campaign manager. Josh Morrow is leaving the post roughly a month before the Democratic primary pitting his man against Congressman Kendrick Meek. The campaign is downplaying the shift, saying Morrow had set up the primary strategy, and was leaving now that his work was done.
LA-Sen: Vitter, with primary afoot, gets no love from Jindal
If embattled Republican Senator David Vitter is in need of a lifeline in the wake of his newfound primary challenge from former state judge Chet Traylor, he apparently won't be getting one from the most popular Republican in the state. Governor Bobby Jindal's spokesman says the Governor is too focused on other matters to worry about endorsements, and will be so for the coming months. That would seem to imply that Jindal will keep his trap shut through the late August primary between Vitter and Traylor.
MD-Sen: Second pollster in as many days confirm Mikulski's lead
After even the House of Ras attested to the dominance of longtime incumbent Senator Barbara Mikulski in Maryland, PPP confirmed the result today. Mikulski holds a nearly thirty-points lead over Jim Rutledge (58-30), with an even larger lead over Eric Wargotz (59-27). Mikulski was first elected to the Senate in 1986, and has been re-elected easily ever since.
NC-Sen: SUSA a broken record--Burr with ten-point edge in NC
SurveyUSA is out again with a new poll in the Tarheel State, and their numbers have not budged since shortly after the late June Democratic runoff election. SUSA has incumbent Republican Richard Burr out in front by ten points (46-36) over Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall. That is down four points for both candidates since the last SUSA poll in the state. Libertarian candidate Michael Beitler holding steady at 6%.
NV-Sen: Reid leads, despite wishes of dead (and Angle's still Angle)
A trio of stories from the Silver State today, and all three could put a smile on your face. The first piece of news came late in the day, and it confirms a trend we have seen for weeks: we now have the first poll showing incumbent Senator Harry Reid leading Sharron Angle by four points (44-40). One caveat: the poll was conducted on behalf of a Democratic entity (called Patriot Majority). Meanwhile, Reid did get some bad news today: he is being booed in the afterlife. An (admittedly clever) obit for 84 year-old Charlotte McCourt asks that in lieu of flowers, people vote for someone other than the Majority Leader.
Sadly, her final wish might prove difficult, if Republican nominee Sharron Angle keeps talking. Her latest contribution: she explains to CBN (that would be the outlet for all things televangelist, the Christian Broadcasting Network) that the reason she has only been interviewed on right-wing outlets is because those evil "librul biased" shows like Meet the Press or This Week won't let her solicit campaign funds on the air. That's right. She won't go anywhere other than friendly venues because those mainstream shows won't let her turn an interview into a freaking infomercial.
WV-Sen: Capito still on fence--did Manchin help close the door?
An interesting tidbit to mine from a Politico story from Shira Toeplitz about the vacillations of Republican Congresswoman and potential Senate candidate Shelley Moore Capito. Toeplitz notes that the revisions to the state code sought by Governor Manchin to allow for a special election this cycle did not include any provisions that would allow for a candidate to run for two offices at once. This, of course, would force Capito to choose between a virtually guaranteed House win or a much dicier Senate run. There had been some speculation that Capito might try to run for both if that avenue was available to her, but that option now appears to be a non-entity.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AL-02/AL-07: Roby and Sewell punch their tickets for November
After a runoff election that wound up being, admittedly, somewhat anticlimatic, we now know the identities of all the nominees for Congress for November out of the state of Alabama. Despite trying to raise the dead (and making them infinitely more conservative than they really were), Rick Barber's teabagger campaign was a dud. What was a 20-point lead for establishment candidate Martha Roby during round one of the primary stayed a twenty-point lead (60-40). Meanwhile, in Alabama's 7th district, Terri Sewell parlayed an enormous funding edge to a ten-point win over Sheila Smoot (55-45). Sewell will easily beat Donald Chamberlain, who also scored a runoff victory last night (56-44).
IA-03: Is former first lady looking at a 2012 House bid?
Could the first top-tier candidate for 2012 already be planning her bid? That's the gist of an interesting discussion over at Bleeding Heartland about a Jonathan Martin interview with former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack. Vilsack seems to be eyeing a political future of her own down the line, and BH seems to speculate that said political bid may come in 2012 in a redistricted 3rd Congressional District. Leonard Boswell, the longtime Democratic incumbent there, is not a lock to defeat Republican Brad Zaun this year, but even if he does, he will be 78 years of age by 2012, and might give way to Vilsack rather than negotiate a district which will be, at least in part, foreign to him. An interesting read, to be sure.
MI-07: Schwarz makes predictable GOP endorsement, but with a twist
Anyone who remembers their acrimonious 2006 Republican primary will find it utterly predictable that former moderate Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz has endorsed Brian Rooney over former Congressman and ardent right-winger Tim Walberg. Where Schwarz threw a bit of a curveball, however, is what he said about the general election. If Walberg wins the primary, Schwarz indicated that he will, as he did in 2008, endorse the Democrat (Congressman Mark Schauer). Even more notable, however, is that Schwarz' endorsement of Rooney is only a done deal for the primary. If Rooney wins, Schwarz said, he will evaluate both candidates.
MN-06: Staffers jumping off the crazy train of Michele Bachmann
Eric Kleefeld at TPMDC makes an interesting note regarding the recent exodus of top campaign and congressional staffers from the clutches of Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. As Kleefeld notes, Bachmann has run through five Chiefs of Staff in just three-plus years on the job. The latest one to quit, former state chairman Ron Carey, left this week, as did Bachmann's finance chairwoman. Given that one of the few redeeming qualities of Bachmann's campaign has been its unbelievable capacity for raising cash, the resignation of the finance chair (Zandra Wolcott) is exceptionally curious.
PA-07: GOP internal poll claims likely pickup of Sestak House seat
A slightly dusty (June 16-17) internal poll for Republican nominee Pat Meehan by Fabrizio McLaughlin seems to indicate a fairly easy path to election for Meehan in the Democratic-held seat being vacated by Senate nominee Joe Sestak. The internal poll claims a twenty-one point lead for Meehan over Democratic nominee Bryan Lentz (47-26). Of course, one of the reasons for the audacious margin might be a surprisingly wide name recognition edge, with more than twice as many voters claiming an opinion of Meehan compared to Lentz.
PA-11: Another Keystone GOP internal paints ugly picture for Dems
Another internal poll out of Pennsylvania puts a Dem seat at grave risk, and this one is an incumbent-held seat. A new poll out from the Tarrance Group today claims that their client, two-time candidate and Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta has a nineteen-point edge over veteran incumbent Paul Kanjorski (56-37). Barletta came within a few points of knocking off Kanjorski in 2008, and is back for round three this year.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: Bentley the nominee in a high-turnout runoff election
After a primary election runoff that featured a turnout that was nearly as large as the initial round, state legislator Robert Bentley cruised to a double-digit win over former college administrator Bradley Byrne (56-44). Bentley had consolidated conservative support in order to claim the win over Byrne, who had accumulated a lot of establishment support in the final week.
AZ-Gov: Brewer has now essentially cleared field for Governor
And then...there were two. Less than a week after state treasurer Dean Martin, once thought to be a frontrunner for the nomination, ceded the Republican gubernatorial nomination to incumbent Jan Brewer, businessman Buz Mills followed suit, leaving the gubernatorial race. This leaves just Brewer and political rookie Matthew Jette, whose rationale for launching his campaign was his opposition to SB 1070. That bold and courageous stand has earned him the vote of "less than 1%" of Arizona Republicans, according to today's new poll (PDF File) from Behavior Research Center. I think we can say it now: Jan Brewer will be the Republican nominee, and will face the near-certain Democratic nominee, state Attorney General Terry Goddard, in November.
GA-Gov: Handel moves into lead for GOP nod with one week to go
Even though the poll was conducted days before the Twitter/Facebook endorsement from Sarah Palin, expect someone to claim that the sudden surge for Secretary of State Karen Handel is owed to Mama Grizzly. The latest poll in the race, from GOP pollster Magellan Strategies, has Handel well out in front with 32% of the vote. Former frontrunner John Oxendine and Congressman Nathan Deal are tied at 18%, with Eric Johnson a few points back at 12%.
MI-Gov: Two polls confirm coin flip in crowded GOP primary
No matter whether you believe new public polling from Mitchell Research or an internal poll from one of the longshot candidates in the field, it looks like the Republican primary to replace term-limited Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm is pretty much a toss-up. The new public poll from Mitchell has a three way-tie at 18% between Congressman Peter Hoekstra, state Attorney General Mike Cox, and businessman Rick Snyder. Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard trails several points behind at 9%. If you buy Bouchard's own polling, however, he is right in the mix. That poll, from McLaughlin, has Bouchard and Hoekstra tied at 19%, with Cox and Snyder within a handful of points from the lead. Interestingly, the Mitchell poll is the first to show real daylight on the Democratic side--they have state House Speaker Andy Dillon well ahead of Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (35-15).
RI-Gov: Field about to be clear for Caprio with pending Lynch exit?
It's not a done deal yet, but it is looking fairly close to one: it looks like Democratic state Attorney General Patrick Lynch is planning to abandon his campaign for Governor tomorrow. This will clear the field on the Democratic side for the (more conservative) state Treasurer, Frank Caprio, to be the presumptive nominee for the Dems.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras picks up the pace a little bit today, hitting a total of four races in four states and giving two eye-openers that will actually please Democrats. Here is a sentence you might have seen twice this entire year: Rasmussen has a Democratic Senate incumbent in considerably better position than other pollsters. The incumbent in question is California's Barbara Boxer, but Rasmussen also has Missouri's Robin Carnahan in much better position than they have, as of late. The other two polls, for those questioning your own eyes, are more according to form.
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 42%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 47%, Robin Carnahan (D) 45%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 57%, Rory Reid (D) 36%
NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte (R) 49%, Paul Hodes (D) 37%
NH-Sen: Bill Binnie (R) 49%, Paul Hodes (D) 38%
NH-Sen: Jim Bender (R) 43%, Paul Hodes (D) 39%
NH-Sen: Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43%, Paul Hodes (D) 40%