Thanksgiving of 2008 I published The Famine Of 2009. I was right about starvation, only partially right about the causes and conditions, and two years premature.
I called my wheat farmer friend Bryan Lutter today to double check my thinking, and I'm really, really worried about what I see coming at us in 2011.
First, I have to point out Russia Is Burning, by Ministry of Truth. Executive summary: Russia is having their highest temperatures ever, the whole region is in flames, they've lost 20% of their wheat crop, and they've stopped exporting wheat.
Second, I have to point out Media Ignored Worst Humanitarian Disaster In Recent History by Laughing Planet. Executive summary: 10% of nuclear armed, unstable Pakistan populace is displaced by flooding, Pakistani wheat crop runs November through mid-summer, but the Indus valley is losing its alternate cropping, mostly rice and cotton.
Because no humans are impacted just yet the news of Canada's incredibly wet growing season it's only news a wheat geek would love, but it's an issue.
Production is off in the European Union and, interestingly enough, South Dakota caught some record hailstones damaging their crops.
So ... we got issues all over and Bryan's thumbnail estimate is that if the gods smile on Australia we'll squeak through without too much trouble.
Australian Drought Linked To Climate Change
Record dry in Russia, record wet in Pakistan, record wet in Canada, record extreme weather in the U.S. dryland wheat areas - and it all comes down to Australia getting lucky in the face of a forty year old climate change driven trend. Meep.
There's another trend under this for which I only have annecdotal information. Bryan tells me farmers cut back dramatically on fertilization due to market uncertainty. Wheat left to its own devices gets to about 9% protein, while humans wielded anhydrous ammonia and its success nitrogen fertilizers can push that number to nearly double.
Half of Egypt's population lives on subsidized bread ... how long do governments stand when the staff of life for the masses loses 40% of its protein content and prices double? We're at $8/bushel now and Bryan thinks it'll go to the $15/bushel numbers seen during the crisis in 2007/2008, but not just yet ...
That graph is right behind the climate hockey stick in terms of the fear factor. I really should clean it up, but I studied human population versus end of season wheat stocks. It's been seventy pounds per capita forever ... until 2003 when biofuel production really kicked in and it dropped to about forty pounds. We get below a certain minimum level ... well ... it'll be like 2008, only worse.