With the Colorado primary just a week away, a new Survey USA poll for the Denver Post shows challenger Andrew Romanoff surging to close the gap and pull even with incumbent Michael Bennet.
Romanoff and Bennet are about even — 48 percent to 45 percent, respectively — in the poll of 536 Democrats who have voted or are likely to vote in the Aug. 10 primary. The question has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
The results show a surge for the former state House speaker since June, when he was 17 points behind, and are likely a reflection of a well-organized and passionate ground game, analysts say. Romanoff recently sold his house and cashed in savings to loan his campaign $325,000.
Romanoff's movement is "dramatic," according to pollster Jay Leve of Survey USA, the firm that conducted the poll.
Leve said Romanoff is finding support from voters in the Denver area; among voters younger than 50; and among people who call themselves "liberal."
"He's finally getting his campaign together. He's pulling together the Romanoff coalition," said University of Colorado at Boulder political scientist Ken Bickers. "It's surprising to me that it's taken so long."
Following the release of the SUSA poll, the Bennet campaign released an internal poll showing the incumbent with a four point lead, 41%-37%. The internal poll was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research, and "found that Bennet is ahead five points among the one-fourth of voters who have already sent in their mail-in ballots."
As David Sirota argues in his diary on the race, Romanoff has run a more grassroots, small-donor funded campaign. While Romanoff has as much, if not more, political experience in Colorado, he's running the anti-incumbent campaign and seems to have found resonance with it.
Meanwhile, the Tancredo debacle on behalf of GOP candidate Ken Buck might have had some impact in the Republican race. The same poll found his lead over Jane Norton has slpped from 16 points in June to 9 points now. Neither candidate in that primary has a monopoly on crazy, however.
The GOP Senate primary in Colorado has been particularly gaffe-filled this year. Buck has called tea party birthers "dumbasses," and Norton has called for "a NASA budget that doesn't cater to making Muslims feel good," among other things.
One of those "other things" according to the Post article, is Norton calling Buck's manhood into question. Colorado easily has the most colorful Republican primaries this cycle. Ballots are cast a week from tomorrow.