There's a whole lot of trash talkin' in the comments about Dean's potential nomination being a death knell for the party because he supposedly cannot win. Spend five minutes messing with the electoral calculator Kos has so kindly provided a link to and you will quickly find these comments nothing short of ludicrous (and I'm not talking about the rapper) for two reasons: 1) only three states need to be won by Dean in 2004 that were lost in 2000; and 2) his VP choice could virtually assure a Dem. win. Combined, the two elements make for a very formidable Dean candidate.
First, assume the elctoral map is exactly the same as it was in 2000 (i.e. the blue stay blue and the red stay red). Bush wins 278 to 260. Now, if the Dems pick up New Hampshire and West Virginia, it's a tie and it gets thrown to the Rep. dominated Senate. Bush wins. So, all any Democrat has to do is win NH, WV and ONE OTHER STATE to win the election.
Let's examine how a Dem. wins NH. Easy, he picks up about 1,000 repentant Green party voters. Not hard to do (remember, the Greens got 4% in NH).
Let's examine how a Dem. wins West Virginia. The Dem. and the Unions that back him hammer the tariff issue into the ground. Dean, a Dem. not vulnerable to rabid NRA atttack ads, manages to pick up a few more people.
Now, let's examine the states that a Dem. can win but Bush won in 2000.
----Missouri was won by Bush by 70k votes out of 2.4m. Obtaining 70k votes could be done by brining new people into the election (Dean strategy), having Gep. campaign hard there for the nominee (if he's not the nominee), have Gep. as the VP, or have the Unions focus heavily on MO because it's a union-heavy state.
----Nevada was won by Bush by 20k votes out of 600k. 20k votes in NV could be obtained by getting UNLV students voting and getting more of the SEIU union members that work at the casinos (there's a whole lot of janitors and other housekeeping service employees there) to the polls.
----DC, although it was won by Gore easily in 2000, only 2 of its possible 3 electoral votes went to Gore because one delegate abstained. If you get the single DC delegate to vote for Dean or whomever the Dem. is, the Dem. wins.
Now, imagine the ease with which a Dean win would come if Clark was the VP? Arkansas is a much easier win as are some of the moderate mountain states.
What about Edwards? NC and SC would be in play, and may be relatively easy wins.
What about Graham? His presence as a VP may lose voters elsewhere, but he might just assure a FL victory (take a gander at how much people like him there, it's pretty amazing).
I'm sure many are saying if Dean's the nominee, he'll lose the states that were narrowly won by Gore in 2000: NM, WI, PA and/or MI.
----NM has a huge Dem. advantage with it's new governor, who is wildly popular. I'd say this state is much more solidly Dem. today than in 2000.
----WI has thirty-thousand students in Madison. Generation Dean is already working there to get out the vote. Again, Dean's lack of NRA vulnerability makes a hunter-freindly state like WI a little easier. The straw poll earlier this year certainly showed a lot of support for Dean. At worst, WI is as much of a toss-up as it was in 2000.
----PA and MI are more firmly Dem. today than in 2000 for three reasons: job losses, job losses, job losses. While I am not happy saying that a Dem. is more likely to win when the economy sucks, it's a fact for this 2004 election. And if you think that the jobs are coming back, please examine this: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci9-8/ci9-8.html The conclusion is that the most recent recession resulted in 79% structural (permanent) job losses. Those jobs ain't coming back unless new industries pop-up. Dean's plan to provide $50b in grants for renewable and clean energy research just might spark that new industry needed to absorb the job losses.
Obviously, none of this is gospel, but clearly those who are already saying the sky is falling b/c Dean might get the nomination should reexamine the facts and work their ass off for Dean if he is the nominee, because it is readily apparent that, literally, a few thousand votes will be the difference between four more years of abotion bans, bibles in schools and crusades and four years of hope, peace and renewal.