Interesting:
Here’s what happened: [Florida] Attorney General Bill McCollum was the favorite in the GOP gubernatorial primary, with a moderate record on immigration and strong support from Latino Republicans. His opponent Rick Scott, a political newcomer and self-funded multi-millionaire, decided to make a name for himself by riding the wave of anti-immigrant sentiment so popular with a segment of the Republican base. He emphasized his strong support for an Arizona-like immigration law in Florida and painted McCollum as soft on illegal immigration. Still, once McCollum started attacking Scott as a shady businessman, he regained the lead and was expected to win.
In what proved to be the fatal move of his campaign, McCollum introduced his own version of an Arizona-type law less than two weeks before the primary. McCollum called on the Florida state legislature to enact it in September and bragged that the bill was tougher than Arizona’s.
Turns out, McCollum’s strategy of trying to outflank Scott on immigrant bashing backfired. McCollum rapidly lost support from Latino leaders, and faced a backlash in the press. On Tuesday, many Latinos in Miami-Dade County stayed home. Turnout in what was expected to be a McCollum stronghold was less than 17%, while statewide turnout was 21%. Scott raced over the finish line and pulled off the come-from-behind upset.
Remember, Florida has a large Latino Republican base, particularly the Cuban community in South Florida (reinforced by the smaller Nicaraguan crowd). The entire GOP has been propped up by these "anti-communist" Republican Latinos, both in terms of votes and in cash. The Cuban-American community is loaded, and they spend freely on politics.
But with the GOP turning hard-Right on immigration, these numbers spell serious trouble for Florida Republicans. Their base is demanding Arizona-style anti-immigrant hate, and the blowback in the South Florida Latino community could have serious electoral repercussions.
With Latinos comprising over 15 percent of the state’s voting population in 2008, as well as almost 50 percent of the recent population growth, it is dangerous and even fatal to underestimate the power of this growing voting bloc. According to a NALEO’s recent poll 55% of Florida Latinos said that the current immigration debate made them more likely to vote in the November 2010 elections and 60% of Florida Latinos said they were certain, very likely, or somewhat likely to vote against a political party or candidate who took a disagreeable position on immigration, even if they agreed with that candidate/party on most other issues.
Good news for Democrats!
Except, the Latino community is furious about the lack of progress on comprehensive immigration reform, or even the Dream Act (for students of undocumented parents), and Spanish-language media has been turning against Obama with a vengeance (and there's no one from the professional left in that world).
Republicans are making headway with Latinos by talking about Obama's broken promises. And while they may conveniently omit their role in blocking any such reform, fact is that Democrats never made a serious push for reform. Reid may whine about 60 votes, but even holding a vote and going down in defeat would've shown Latinos which party was fighting for them, and which one is standing in their way. Instead, Democrats are stuck with the worst of all worlds -- lack of progress, and the blame for the lack of progress.
For Latinos, a demographic that is already prone to staying home on election day, a sense of political helplessness is a recipe for lower turnout. And the lower the Latino turnout, the more seats we'll lose in November.