this also appears as a comment under Schaller's McMahon as Sylvester post.
Gephardt's camp says a hard count of 35,000 will win it. I have heard two figures for Dean's hard count. The fist is 40,000 -- which is still more than Gephardt, and is one that I believe has been publiclys tated. The other is 50,000, which I presume was made in off the recorfd comments because I've only seen it I think twice.
So let's look st several levels of turnout. For each ;eve; of turnout I will give you what Gephardt ( G), Dean at 40,000 (D1) and Dean at 50,000 (D2) would have as a percentage. After each, I will make some comments.
100,000
G 35%
D1 40%
D2 50%
Not believable, even at the D1 figure -- I don't think any Deaniac in their wildest dreams believes Dean will take 50% or Gephardt 35%/
120,000
G 29.2%
D1 33.3%
D2 41.7%
possible, but unlikely, if for no other reason that I do not see gephardt at so high a percentage.
G 25.%
D1 28.6%
D2 35.7%
while possibly in the ball park, I'm not sure that I would see Gephardt quite that high. If we took the lower D1 number, that would mean these two would tother draw over 53% of the vote, and at the high D2 9which I think is possible) over 60% of vote, which I think quite unlikely. There is some movement towards the two Johns.
150,000
G 23.3%
D1 26.7%
D2 33.3%
this model makes some sense to me, because it put Gephadt about where I would expect him to come out, something of 20% but less than 25% I would in this model presume Dean someplace between D1 and D1 and note that 45,000 turnout = 30%, or just under a 7 point margin.
160,000
G 21.9
D1 25
D2 31.3
This seems to be the upper limit of possible turnout. Again, for sake of comparison, note that G and D1 = just under 47% of vote, which in theory makes it possible for one or more of the other candidates to slide in, particularly if there are larege undecideds and they break for K or E.
Final thoughts, however
1) I think G's hardcount of 35,000 is probably too high, and that he might be luckly to break 30,000 on first vote. If I give him 30,00- because of turnout, and assume that he will wind up with around 22% of vote, that yields a model of around 136,300 total votes. At that level, even the lower Dean number of 40,000 = 29.6% which is as far as I can tell pretty close to unbeatable.
So the questions remain
- what will be the total turnout
- assuming the Mcmahon and co are understating their numbers, how much above 40,000 is the turnout or Dean? Unless the turnout gets significantly above 160,000, I do not see how, even after redistribution of the non-viables, Dean can finish worse than second, assuming at least 40,000 Dean voters. And I think the number still favor him. I think the proclaimed and advertised clseness of the race is in fact liekly to increase his turnout at least as much as anyone else's, becuase now people will know that he needs their help.
Just a few random thoughts from a sickbed - otherwise I'd be in Falls Church at Virginia hdqtrs making phone calls to IA right now