On the hottest day in the history of Los Angeles (113 degrees--even 105 degrees on the coast), the Wrap must soldier on. While praying for a breeze (and sweating while typing, for crying out loud), there is a deluge of data that greets us at the opening of the week.
A total of 33 polls kick off the week, and they run the gamut from optimistic to fatalistic about Democratic prospects...and occasionally do so in the same race!
However, there is some new bits of information in races we haven't seen much data from. One vulnerable House Democrat looks to be in excellent shape, for example, and the Senate landscape sure seems to be changing, as well.
All that (and more) as we kick off the week with a heat exhausted Monday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: Mason Dixon latest poll to confirm Crist swoon in FL
Confirming a trend that has been building since the start of the month, the latest Mason Dixon poll confirmed over the weekend that Republican Marco Rubio has forged a double-digit lead over both Independent Charlie Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek. With Meek and Crist cancelling each other out, Rubio is in a solid position despite notching just 40% of the vote. He easily leads both Crist (28%) and Meek (23%).
IA-Sen: DMR poll puts Grassley at a two-to-one advantage
The Des Moines Register poll, done by Ann Selzer, has a pretty solid track record in Iowa. Democrats have to hope, given the DMR poll's results this weekend, that the pollster is just off their game this cycle. That's because the DMR poll gives Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley a daunting lead over Democrat Roxanne Conlin (61-30). According to the poll, Grassley even nets positive approval from Democrats in the state (46/39).
KY-Sen: Conway pulls close, according to once-pessimistic SurveyUSA
Conservatives crowed a month ago, when SurveyUSA put Republican Rand Paul up fifteen points on Democrat Jack Conway in the Kentucky Senate race. Their love affair with SUSA in Kentucky might have come to an abrupt end, given that SurveyUSA's newest poll puts the race at a pure coin-flip. Once a 55-40 Rand Paul lead in the eyes of SUSA, the race now sits at just two points (49-47), well within the margin of error.
NH-Sen: ARG! Erratic pollster says GOP a double-digit favorite
American Research Group (or...in honor of the recently passed "Talk Like A Pirate Day"...ARG) has a long established rep for ping-pongy numbers that tend to frustrate folks that put a lot of stock in polls. We'll see how their numbers in New Hampshire (a frequent ARG polling target) hold up this cycle. In one of their first polls in the cycle, however, they put Republican Kelly Ayotte up 14 points on Democratic rival Paul Hodes (46-32). Just 2% of the voters lean towards a third party candidate, leaving one-in-five voters undecided. Driving the Ayotte lead, in ARG's opinion, is a vast lead among Independent voters.
NC-Sen: Clarification on last week's Civitas poll
Late last week, I missed a great catch by my brother in polling junkie-hood, Crisitunity over at Swing State Project. He noted that Civitas, the North Carolina organization that frequently polls the Tar Heel State, has changed pollsters. Once getting their data from Tel Opinion Research, they now get their nums from National Research, which is a firm most often associated with GOP internal polling. That might explain the sudden widening of the race (although, in fairness to Civitas, Rasmussen and SUSA found the same spread in the race).
OH-Sen: Enquirer poll gives Portman a double-digit edge
A new poll for the Cincinnati Enquirer, released this weekend, shows that Democratic nominee Lee Fisher has a pretty high mountain to climb in order to catch Republican frontrunner Rob Portman. Portman holds a fifteen-point lead, according to the survey (55-40). The problem for Fisher--he is getting absolutely destroyed in southwest Ohio, Portman's base (66-28). Meanwhile, Fisher is leading in his home base, but by a much narrower margin (49-47).
PA-Sen: Two polls confirm modest Toomey lead in Keystone State
Republican Patrick Toomey holds a lead over Democrat Joe Sestak, but it is not an insurmountable lead. Such is the verdict of a pair of polls released today, one public and one partisan. The public poll (PDF file) comes from Muhlenberg College, and gives Toomey a seven-point lead over Sestak (46-39). In a reversal from most polls, this had more undecided voters hailing for the GOP than the Democrats. Meanwhile, the prolific partisans at Magellan chime in as well, giving Toomey a 49-41 lead over Sestak in their survey.
THE U.S. HOUSE
FL-24: Democratic internal projects major turnaround in close race
Freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas has long been considered among the most vulnerable Democrats in America. A new poll out from her campaign from Hamilton Campaigns, however, hints that Kosmas might have reclaimed the momentum (PDF file). The poll shows Kosmas, who even trailed in her internal polling earlier in the year, leading Republican Sandy Adams by a pair of points (45-43). While this is an improvement, it is hard to pop champagne corks yet, given that this partisan internal still only has the incumbent up two.
KY-06: Is vulnerable Dem looking bulletproof? New poll says "yes"
There is little doubt that Republicans clearly had designs on this GOP-friendly district in Kentucky. There is even less doubt that this district is getting away from them. A new Braun Research poll (conducted for local website CN|2) puts Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler up fourteen points (51-37) over Republican Andy Barr. This confirms several polls (including a Barr internal) showing Chandler out in front.
MS-04: Is Conservadem Taylor in trouble? GOP internal says "yes"
Well, apparently being a "me, too" conservative Democrat isn't the automatic immunity from electoral pain that many pundits have alleged this cycle. The Tarrance Group polled the 4th district for GOP challenger Steven Palazzo, and finds the challenger within four points of longtime Democratic incumbent Gene Taylor (45-41). The poll also claims that among those who know both candidates, Palazzo actually leads (always a somewhat dubious point, since partisans are more likely to recognize their own little known candidate than Independents and those in the other party).
NH-01/NH-02: ARG poll claims two GOP pickups in Granite State
If the American Research Group is correct, the GOP will pick up two of the forty seats they need for Congress in one shot, with two pickups in New Hampshire. In the 1st district, the pollster sees a ten-point advantage for Republican Frank Guinta over Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (50-40). Meanwhile, the Dems might actually take a little solace in the numbers from the neighboring 2nd district, where Democrat Ann Kuster only trails former Congressman Charlie Bass by two points (38-36). Given Bass' status as the district's representative in Congress for over a decade, a two-point lead has to be seen as something of a sign of weakness, especially in this environment.
PA-08: Dem-friendly pollster says Murphy still leads Fitzpatrick
Confronted with a public poll last week (by Franklin and Marshall) showing GOP challenger Mike Fitzpatrick up ten points in their rematch, advocates for Democratic incumbent Patrick Murphy unveiled a poll of their own, showing Murphy in the lead. The Harstad Research poll sees a three-point lead for Murphy. Counterintuitively, the poll shows an even wider lead among "definite voters", despite the conventional wisdom that the most enthusiastic voters are leaning to the GOP this cycle.
PA-10: Dueling polls put Carney up eight...or down four
A pair of polls are out to open the week in the GOP-leaning 10th district, where sophomore Democratic Rep. Chris Carney either leads by eight points or trails by four points, depending on the pollster. An internal poll for the Carney campaign, conducted by Momentum Analysis, gives the Democrat an eight-point lead (46-38) over Republican Tom Marino. This contradicts a public poll from Critical Insights (on behalf of the Wilkes Barre Times-Leader), which came out over the weekend and gave Marino a four-point lead over Carney (40-36). Worth noting, however: the Critical Insights poll has an abnormally small sample size (margin of error closing in on 7%).
PA-11: Critical Insights poll gives GOP challenger huge lead
Another small sample Critical Insights poll for the Times Leader claims that Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski is in deep trouble. The poll says that Republican Lou Barletta, who came within five points of Kanjorski in 2008, now leads by eleven (42-31) over the incumbent. Kanjorski's team jumped on the poll, pointing out that the sample's partisan ID breakdown was even (42-42), while the district has a 57-31 Democratic registration advantage.
SD-AL: Dem internal poll shows double-digit lead for Herseth-Sandlin
Once considered an extremely vulnerable incumbent (largely propelled by frequent polling from Rasmussen), it looks like Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin has solidified her position. The incumbent released a new internal poll, from Bennett Pitts Northington, showing her leading Republican challenger Kristi Noem by a thirteen point margin (51-38). Both candidates have been on the air for a couple of weeks now, showing that Noem's entrance to the air war does not appear to have changed the calculus in the race yet.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
AL-Gov: Sparks campaign hails poll...showing them down double digits?!
As the Wrap has often stated, you need a damned good reason to flog a poll showing your candidate trailing. Among the acceptable reasons, of course, is to counteract a popular perception of a race. Why, then, is the campaign for Ron Sparks so eager to promote this poll, conducted for the Alabama Education Association, showing Republican Robert Bentley leading Sparks by thirteen points (52-39). The rationale, in this case, is that this is an improvement of nine points from a late July AEA survey. Um...okay...but does that mean that by late November, the margin will be down to four points?!
IA-Gov: DMR poll shows Culver trailing badly to Branstad
As mentioned earlier, the Selzer/Des Moines Register is unrelentingly ugly this month for the Democrats, and that does not change with their assessment of the gubernatorial election. The poll puts former GOP Governor Terry Branstad in commanding position against incumbent Democrat Chet Culver. The poll has Culver trailing Branstad by nineteen points (52-33). Culver is limping along with 35% job approval, which has to improve for him to have any chance of holding his job in November.
MA-Gov: Pair of polls put Patrick in lead, but is there GOP surge?
While one poll out of the Bay State this weekend essentially reiterated every Massachusetts gubernatorial poll over the past eight weeks, another one has to be sounding alarms inside the campaign of incumbent Democrat Deval Patrick. The "holy crap" poll comes from the the Boston Globe, which has Patrick clinging to a statistically insignificant lead of a single point (35-34) over Republican Charlie Baker. Dem-turned-Indie Tim Cahill trails badly with just 11% of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein sits at 4%. The other poll of the weekend, from Western New England College, upholds the status quo, with Patrick staked to a six-point lead (39-33) over the Republican. The key difference might be Cahill, who does incrementally better in this poll (16%). Stein trails well behind at 3%.
MN-Gov: Dayton pulls out to modest lead over Emmer, Horner surging
A new poll for the Minneapolis Star-Tribune counters recent Rasmussen polling showing a tossup. The poll gives Democrat Mark Dayton a respectable advantage over Republican Tom Emmer, with the Democrat up by nine points (39-30). The other big move in the Trib poll is Indie candidate Tom Horner, who moves up from 13% to 18% in the latest survey.
NH-Gov: Lynch says ARG! after latest poll in gubernatorial race
Everyone's favorite pirate pollster hit all of the Granite State races today, and we close it out with their numbers in the (according to ARG) surprisingly close gubernatorial contest in the state. The pollster has incumbent Democrat John Lynch leading Republican John Stephen by just two points (42-40), with Libertarian John Babiarz sitting at 4% of the vote. While Lynch is virtually guaranteed to have his closest contest in cycles, the actual lead for the Democratic incumbent has fluctuated wildly in recent polling.
NM-Gov: Second Dem internal is as many weeks calls it a tie
After having a different pollster assess the state of the race last week, the campaign of Democrat Diane Denish heads back into the breech with a new pollster, and finds the race to be a coin flip. That is the verdict of Third Eye Strategies, which has both Denish and Republican nominee Susana Martinez sitting at 46% among likely voters. This counters a pair of polls last week, including another Denish internal which had Martinez out in front by five points.
OH-Gov: Enquirer poll hints at Strickland comeback?
It is rare that an incumbent might celebrate a poll where his challenger leads him by four. But it is hard not to presume that the campaign of incumbent Governor Ted Strickland welcomes the news that the latest Cincinnati Enquirer poll shows Strickland has drawn within four points (49-45) against Republican frontrunner John Kasich. Especially given the ugly recent polling in the race, much of which had Strickland trailing by double digits. Furthermore, with the wide margin in the Senate race, it is tough to impeach this poll as the result of an overly optimistic Democratic sample.
PA-Gov: Pair of polls have Corbett holding onto modest lead
Two new polls came out today in Pennsylvania, and both of them seem to counter recent polling showing Republican Tom Corbett pulling away from Democrat Dan Onorato in the state's open-seat gubernatorial race. That said, both polls confirm that Corbett still holds solid leads over his Democratic rival. The Muhlenberg College (PDF file) poll puts the race at single digits, with Corbett owning a nine-point advantage over Onorato (46-37). Republican pollster Magellan widens the margin slightly, giving Corbett an edge of twelve points (50-38).
TX-Gov: Perry up seven, under 50%, according to new poll
New numbers came out this weekend in the Lone Star State, and while the margin is a little wider than some other surveys are hinted, ample undecideds make this race still very competitive. The poll, coming from Blum and Welprin for the Dallas Morning News, gives Republican Governor Rick Perry a seven-point edge over Democrat Bill White (46-39). Given that nearly half of the voters still don't have a strong opinion of the challenger, it is apparent that White still has a great deal of upside.
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
The House of Ras becomes the first pollster to examine a write-in bid for Mike Castle. According to the Ras-sies, Castle doesn't draw a lot of votes, but what votes he does draw moves right-winger Christine O'Donnell within single digits of Democrat Chris Coons. And that fact, not the fact that a Castle write-in is clearly a nonstarter, was their big headline on this poll.
How very Rasmussen of them.
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Linda McMahon (R) 45%
DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Christine O'Donnell (R) 40%, Mike Castle (W/I) 5%
GA-Sen: Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) 52%, Michael Thurmond (D) 36%
IA-Gov: Terry Branstad (R) 55%, Gov. Chet Culver (D) 37%
OK-Sen: Sen. Tom Coburn (R) 68%, Jim Rogers (D) 26%
SC-Sen: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 64%, Alvin Greene (D) 21%