As I sit down to write this article, History is in the making and no one knows how it will play out in Egypt or in the rest of the Middle East. All it took was a small successful demonstration in Tunisia earlier this month to prove that the strong arm governments of the Middle East are ready to topple. Some attribute it to the social network of the 21st Century. Others would claim that time had run out with these governments. In the meantime, the linchpin of the United States’ Middle East policy has depended upon our relations with Egypt for the past 40 years. All that now is in jeopardy.
The Egyptian Army has been in control of Egypt since officers of the Army, led by Lt. Col. Gamal Abdel Nasser overthrew King Farouk on July 23, 1952. Among those officers was Anwar el-Sedat, who became President after the death of Nasser in 1971. On October 6, 1981, President Sadat was assassinated and his Vice President, Hosni Mubarak took over and was elected President a month later. Mubarak had been a commander in the Egyptian Air Force, making a name for himself in the 1973 War with Israel. He has ruled Egypt ever since, being elected 6 times under the National Democratic Party, which as been the party in power for the Egyptian Army. Under their rule, there has been very little action in opposition parties, with the exception of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been illegal as Egyptian law forbids political parties tied to religious movements. The Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna, is actually the seed of Islamic Fundamentalism, as it was founded in response once Turkey became a secular state in 1923. It has given birth to nearly every Fundamentalist movement in Islam. Today, the organization has been operating behind the scenes as it has elected members as Independents into the Egyptian Parliament and sought to control and assist organizations such as al-Jihad in Egypt and Hamas in Palestine.
Right now, no one knows what will happen in Egypt. The one common thread throughout modern Egyptian history is that the Egyptian Army has been in control and whatever happens in Egypt over the next days, weeks or months will be dictated by them. At the present, we have seen the Army called out, but it has failed to may any attempt to put down the demonstrators, unlike the Egyptian Police Force, who supports Mubarak. Their only action has been to protect public buildings and try to regulate the flow of protesters. In recent days, they have tried to separate the pro-Bubarak forces, who have inflamed the situation with violence Mubarak has placed former Army General and head of Egyptian Intelligence Omar Sulieman as Vice President. He is the first Vice President under the Mubarak regime. Mubarak has replaced his Prime Minister with former air force commander Ahmed Shafik. President Mubarak has announced that he will no longer seek office after his term expires this fall. None of these moves has placated the protesters as they continue to demand that Mubarak must leave Egypt immediately. The only voice so far for the protesters is Mohamed ElBaradei, former Director General of the International Atomic Agency for the UN and recipient of the 2005 Nobel Peace for preventing atomic energy from being used for military purposes and ensuring that it is used for peaceful purposes. He had succeeded Hans Blix of Sweden, who had opposed our military strike in Iraq. ElBaradei is better known outside of Egypt than inside and has no real political power. Although elected as by the protesting opposition, he is suspect by the Muslim Brotherhood as well as the Army.
One possibility is that Mubarak will announce his leave of the Presidency and will turn the Presidency over to Omar Sulieman. Sulieman will announce new elections within the next six months and announce that he will not run as well. The Army will have to find someone in their ranks that will retain control and institute major changes and implementation of the Egyptian Constitution, as well as re-writing its flaws allowing this situation to develop. What happens is anyone’s guess. The United States must be careful as to its role in this, although we need a strong Egypt to help control of the spread of Fundamental Islam, the continued peace with Israel and keeping the Suez Canal operating. We cannot, in any way, be seen as a major participant in the "new" Egypt, as we have supported the brutal reign of Mubarak. We send $1,500,000,000 in Foreign Aid to Egypt. Most of that aid has been for their military and Egypt needs US support to keep their armed forces moving, as well as the aid for domestic use. If you look at our record for Foreign Aid in the past ten years, Israel is first and Egypt is second. Whoever wins in their next election will have the support of the Egyptian Army. Anything else will result in bloodshed!
Tom C.
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