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Photo caption: top left; Rahm Emanuel, top right; Gery Chico, bottom left; Carol Moseley Braun, and bottom right; Miguel del Valle.

Who'd have thunk it? That a guy named Gery Chico could even be competitive with a guy named Rahm Emanuel. In spite of the fact that Rahm Emanuel has the support of two of the most powerful Democrats alive today, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. And cash, gobs of it. Cash collected from all parts of this great land.

And what has Rahm Emanuel done with that cash. He uses the cash to produce ineffective and dull television commercials. Unmemorable commercials at that. Except for one.

But we will get to that later in the post.

On the bright side, Rahm Emanuel is helping the Chicago's economy by spending this cash here. The television stations and newspapers here love it.

And yet it seems this guy Rahm Emanuel cannot put away this guy Gery Chico with all his money, connections, and friends. The Huffington Post reported that NBC News reported Gery Chico's candidacy is surging and that Rahm Emanuel's campaign.

Not.

The latest internal polls of the campaigns of Gery Chico, Rahm Emanuel, and Carol Moseley Braun all state a very disturbing fact for Rahm Emanuel. On February 22nd Rahm Emanuel will not get the fifty percent plus one vote required to be the next mayor of Chicago.

It's official: Gery Chico has moved passed Carol Moseley Braun for second place in the Chicago mayor's race.

NBC reported last night that internal polling by the campaigns of Braun, Chico, and front-runner Rahm Emanuel all confirm the move, which comes after a week of aggressive television advertising by Chico. The Braun campaign still hasn't aired a television advertisement, as it struggles to raise funds.

Chico was the first candidate to "go negative" this week, releasing a spot targeted directly at Emanuel and his plan to add a sales tax to certain services. The so-called "Rahm Tax" has been an issue of contention between the two for weeks, with Chico arguing that a vast swath of everyday purchases will be taxed, and Emanuel countering that only purchases for the very rich will fall under the tax's purview.

Well me, of course. I thought that Gery Chico had a chance and my experience with this campaign has served to reinforce that notion. The Chico campaign knows what they are doing. As someone who watched up close and personal the 2004 United States Senate campaign of an obscure state senator by the name of Barack Obama. In that campaign, Obama was polling last in a very large and talented field of candidates. And he did all the little things so well that by March 16, 2004, Barack Obama shocked the local and national political scene by resoundingly defeating this talented field of candidates. One candidate, Blair Hull, even spent $40 million dollars of his own money in the 2004 race. For his effort Hull received 10.8% of the vote. Roughly $300 a vote.

I also watched up close and personal a candidate named Toni Preckwinkle, who was also polling poorly early on in the campaign, defeated a politically entrenched field and went on to become Cook County Board President. And a popular and effective one at that.

This race is no different.

And then Rahm Emanuel has a tax, called the "Rahm Tax" that he can't explain away. And Chico has been effectively exploiting that with commercials like this.

Chico effectively brands Emanuel with the "Rahm Tax" label. Awesome stuff.

And then Rahm Emanuel hurt himself very badly when he approved this message bashing all city workers and publicly scolding them for not doing their jobs. It motivated some unions that were on the fence, to not only come out for Chico, but send in ground troops to help him. Here is the unfortunate commercial.

A highly insulting ad not just to city workers, but all working people.

My initial thought was that Chico could win by forcing the race into a runoff.

But.

Gery Chico is surging so much at this point, he might just get the votes he needs to become mayor on February 22nd.

It's that kind of race.

John is the author of an award-winning book, the 2010 Winner of the USA National Best Book award for African-American studies, published by The Elevator Group Mr. and Mrs. Grassroots: How Barack Obama, Two Bookstore Owners, and 300 Volunteers did it. Also available an eBook on Amazon. John is also a member of the Society of Midland Authors and is a book reviewer of political books for the New York Journal of Books

Originally posted to Mr. Grassroots on Tue Feb 08, 2011 at 11:16 AM PST.

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Is Gery Chico's candidacy for Mayor of Chicago surging?

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