Opinion Research Corporation for CNN. 1/21-23. Republican primary voters. MoE 4.5%
Although CNN's numbers are a bit stale -- they just released them today but the survey was completed on January 23 -- they do give us a some trendlines to observe as the GOP primary field begins to take shape.
As you can see, the field continues to be dominated by the big three potential candidates -- Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul comprise the second tier in polling and everybody else trails far behind in the third tier.
Of the top three candidates, only Romney has made it absolutely clear he's running, but he's fallen behind both Huckabee and Palin despite having been atop the field one year ago. Given that neither of his rivals have made a decision about running, Romney can't be thrilled with those numbers.
Aside from the big three dominating the field and Romney's slow slide, Newt Gingrich is the other big name who may seriously think he's got a shot at the nomination (sorry Ron Paul folks, but he ain't running to win if he runs at all). Gingrich had himself a little boomlet last year, but interest in his candidacy seems to have waned.
That leaves us with a bunched up bottom tier out of which nobody has yet emerged and probably won't until the Huckabee and Palin situations are resolved, particularly the latter. All we can do is guess at this point, but the more I think about, the more I think Jake was onto something in his inaugural GOP 2012 Cattle Call "she's got to run to feed the beast." Unless Rupert offers her $20 million to stay out, it sure does make sense for to get in the race. Here's to hoping!