A week ago (was it 2?), I drafted a diary that offered up my ideas for a farewell speech for Hosni Mubarak -- sort of a valedictory along the lines of Washington and Eisenhower, with important cautions from an outgoing leader, but full of optimism and hopeful directions. I saw it as a chance to go out with a statesmanlike flourish. I didn't post it because I thought it was ridiculously presumptuous and I certainly didn't have anything to add that more connected people didn't already say or think.
I had high hopes for Mubarak's speech tonight, even if it couldn't compare with what the millions of anxious and angry Egyptians felt. Like them, I am disappointed about the speech and gravely worried about what might follow for Egypt. I have nothing to say about his intransigence that they cannot say more forcefully. There would be no point in adding my voice to that chorus, but I think I do have something to say, even as a Jewish American watching these events from the comfort of home, thousands of miles away.
What I do want to say is that I think Mubarak has been transformed into an evil demagogue that is doing the opposite of what he hopes to accomplish. Like Nero, Mubarak is fiddling while Egypt is about to burn -- and, like Nero, he's striking the match and preparing to stoke the fires.
The regime has always justified its iron fist with the notion that it was needed to protect Egypt and its neighbors from the extremists within. If Mubarak's speech finds a favorable audience anywhere in Egypt, it will be with the types of extremists he claims to fear.
Instead of truly listening to and appreciating the demands of his own people for real democracy and his own departure, Mubarak has responded with a mind-boggling and contemptible level of demagoguery and xenophobia. Even at his worst, I had thought Mubarak was a patriot who believed he had Egypt's best interests in mind. At the very least, I believed that he believed he was protecting Egypt from the rise of extremism -- all in the interests of maintaining peace, a peace he inherited from Anwar Sadat.
He could say almost anything in defense of his continued rule and I wouldn't have reacted so viscerally. What Mubarak seems to believe is that he needs to convince Egyptians that the protesters are following the influences and direction of foreigners. I can't say whether he is sincere in believing this is about foreign influence and pressure, or whether he's simply reading from the authoritarian demagogue's playbook.
The real problem with this kind of talk is that it appeals to the very worst in the Egyptian character. He could have gone out as a real patriot and statesman, appealing to the better angels in the Egyptian character. He could have told Egyptians that they have nothing to fear from the outside world and that Egypt should open itself -- to democracy, to modernity, and to its neighbors. He could have laid out a hopeful vision for the future, embracing the protesters and the vision they offer. Instead, he offered a dark vision of the outside world, full of those who do not have Egypt's best interests in mind.
I know he's made himself almost impossibly rich as President -- helping himself to over $50 billion that properly belong to the Egyptian people. That isn't a lot of money in a country of 80 million -- not even $2,000 a person. On the other hand, if it were distributed to each Egyptian, it would more than double the annual income of that 40% that survives on $2 a day. Even still, I imagined he might also be a bit of a statesman -- one who shared Sadat's vision for an Egypt that lived in peace with its neighbors. I didn't think he was capable of offering the kind of xenophobic demagoguery he offered to his people tonight to justify his prideful obstinance.
Even now, I'm listening to the Vice-President Omar Suleiman, echo Mubarak's pleas to the youth to avoid the will of foreigners who threaten Egypt's best interests -- who want to weaken Egypt. These men have revealed themselves to be despicably evil and arrogant or certifiably insane. They've invited a civil war, and they must be hoping their brand of thuggery will prevail. I hope for all our sakes that they are wrong about that.
If Egypt's democracy is born in a cauldron of blood, the extremism the regime has fought to suppress cannot help but emerge in a more powerful way. Some of it will be religious zealotry. Some of it will be nationalistic extremism. They may reach an unholy alliance that can only make the Mideast an even more dangerous place. 'Outside foreign influence' is usually code for the Zionists and their allies. The greatest danger, beyond the risk of civil conflict in Egypt, is that nationalistic demagogues rise to power in Egypt and take the country back into conflict with Israel. I'd say Mubarak is doing his level best to move Egypt in that direction -- to endorse just that level of extreme nationalism.
As Mubarak himself said -- this isn't just about him. It's about what kind of country he will leave behind. He's made the wrong choice. For those who thought Mubarak was needed as a bulwark against extremism, this speech should totally undercut any continued theoretical validity for this line of argument.
If Hosni Mubarak wants to be immortalized, I've got the perfect place: It's called whatanasshole.org.