Republican Chris Lee (NY-26) has resigned from Congress following an adulterous beefcake photo scandal on Craigslist. Here is what you need to know about his former congressional district moving forward:
Where is the NY-26?
The NY-26 covers the area between Rochester and Buffalo in western New York State. Here’s a map:
To act like a blogger for a moment, I’ll note this happens to be the district where "my people" are from. Both my parents, and all four of my grandparents, were born and raised in the district. If you are looking for some folksy local flavor, then you should try the beef on weck. Coincidentally, I believe that’s also what Chris Lee said.
Is the NY-26 a Democratic or Republican district?
It’s a Republican district, with a Cook PVI of R+6. This means that on average Republicans score 6% better in this district than they do nationally, basically giving them a built-in 12% edge here. For example, John McCain scored 52% in this district in 2008, 6% better than his national average of 46%.
This makes the NY-26 a very difficult district for Democrats. Not impossible, but very, very difficult. During the height of Democratic electoral dominance in late 2009, the New York House delegation was a well-rounded 27-2 in favor of the blue guys. However, even then the NY-26 remained in red hands. Further, in 2006, then-NRCC chair Tom Reynolds held onto the seat despite becoming embroiled in the Mark Foley House page scandal. Perhaps most notably of all, Carl Paladino, who is from the neighboring NY-27, won the NY-26 quite handily in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Paladino lost by 27% statewide.
The district is also disappearing. New York will lose two congressional seats before the 2012 elections, mainly due to slow or negative population growth in the Upstate region. As such, the district will likely become more Democratic in 2012, as it will be combined with parts of one or more of the other Upstate districts. It will still lean Republican, however. It will also potentially pit the winner of the special election against another Upstate incumbent, which might scare off top-tier candidates on both sides.
What is the process to replace Lee?
This:
A special election! Under the Public Officers Law and Election Law, Gov. Andrew Cuomo has to formally call a special election to replace him, since this vacancy will occur so early in Lee’s term (less than 40, if my math is correct). Under the Election Law, the party candidates to succeed Lee are chosen not by a petitioning and primary process, but by a weighted vote of the county party chairs in the district. Lee’s district, the 26th, spans parts of Erie, Niagara and Monroe counties (nothern suburbs of Buffalo, western suburbs of Rochester) as well as the GLOW counties: Genesee, Livingston, Wyoming and Orleans.
With no fixed date for a special election, we are in a holding pattern that could last for a while. In 2010, then-Governor David Paterson allowed the nearby NY-29th to remain vacant for eight months following Eric Massa’s resignation from Congress.
No primary election, either. Party leaders will choose the candidate at a convention of sorts. This is going to be difficult for the less-than unified Democratic Party in the region. As an example of this division, one of the rumored Democratic candidates, Kathy Konst, was sued off the Democratic ballot line in her 2009 re-election campaign for Erie County legislature by the Erie County Democratic Committee.
Who are the possible candidates?
The biggest rumor going around right now is that Carl Paladino might run on the Republican ticket. Even though he lives in the NY-27, and not the NY-26, he would still be legally allowed to run. He might have a shot, too, given that he performed well in the district against Cuomo.
Other than Paladino, the list is lengthy, especially on the Republican side. Swing State Project:
- Erie Co. Exec. Chris Collins (who got a bit of gubernatorial buzz in 2010)
- state Sen. George Maziarz (can't see the GOP being happy with the possibility of risking losing their new state Senate majority, though)
- state Sen. Michael Ranzenhofer
- Assemblywoman Jane Corwin
- Assemblyman Jim Hayes
- Assemblyman and Monroe Co. GOP chair Bill Reilich
- Monroe Co. Exec. Maggie Brooks
- Ex-Assemblyman Jack Quinn (the son of the former Buffalo-area GOP Rep.)
- Ex-Rep. Tom Reynolds (one reporter says he's getting "antsy" as a lobbyist, and maybe the stench of l'affaire Mark Foley has worn off)
For the Dems:
- Erie Co. Comptroller Mark Poloncarz
- Eric Co. Clerk Kathy Hochul
Based on some quick conversations with locals, Poloncarz might be the potential Democratic candidate who the netroots / grassroots would find most attractive. However, he is almost certainly not going to run, while Hochul is at least considering. On the Republican side, Jane Corwin is probably the front-runner right now, due to her personal fortune and backing by the Chris Collins faction of the local GOP.
That’s the rundown. For local blogging on the NY-26, follow WNYMedia and Rochester Turning.
Update--Paladino not running: Paladino won't run. Also on the GOP side, Monroe County executive Maggie Brooks is out.
Update 2--Jon Powers mulling a run: Jon Powers, who lost the 2008 Democratic nomination for this seat, is apparently considering a run.