So, this is the new place, huh? Well, I brought some political and polling headlines from the week, and I solemnly promise not to put my feet on the furniture!
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL (FOX NEWS): Fox News has taken the intriguing step (and, it is rare for me to say this, but kudos to them) of changing their polling unit. They have gone to (as NBC has done for years) a pairing of a GOP and Democratic pollster to collaborate on their surveys. They also, for the first time, are including cell phone respondents to their sample. The results, at least in the first go-round, are enough to send any Fox News viewer screaming for the House of Ras. According to their first presidential poll in the new setup, Democratic President Barack Obama enjoys a lead ranging from 7-21 points over his most likely GOP challengers. As with other polls we have seen, Mitt Romney comes the closest (48-41), with Sarah Palin trailing by the most (56-35). Mike Huckabee (49-41) and Newt Gingrich (55-35) fall in-between. The new crew at Fox News also found President Obama with a reasonably affirmative 51/43 approval spread.
COLORADO (PPP): PPP, in its continuing tour of all of the potential swing states, heads to the Mountain West this week. The firm tested both Colorado and New Mexico, and find that their electoral votes would remain in the Democratic column if the election were held today. Colorado is the closer of the two, but Barack Obama still leads with a small measure of comfort here. The leads for Obama here range from six points (Mitt Romney) to 19 points (Sarah Palin). In a positive side note for Obama, the guys at PPP also tested him against the always formidable “Generic Republican”. Often, a generic opponent makes for a closer contest, because GOP voters can project their favored candidate into that position. However, in this survey, Obama maintained a solid 51-44 edge over the generic challenger.
NEW MEXICO (PPP): As they headed south into New Mexico, PPP found President Obama with a considerably more impressive lead, one reminiscent of his blowout win in the state in 2008. The traditional four GOP candidates were tested, and Obama emerged with leads ranging from 16-29 points over the field. To add a hometown flavor, PPP tested former New Mexico Governor (and flavor of the month for libertarian GOP fetishists) Gary Johnson. But he did scarcely better, trailing by a 51-36 margin. Some conservative political junkies (the National Review’s Jim Geraghty prominent among them) have criticized the poll for being a bit heavy on Democrats in the sample. Of course, that was a common refrain from Democrats in 2010. In other words, it is not always easy to tell what is a sampling bias and what is legitimate change in the electorate. Usually, as we happily learned in 2008 and unhappily learned in 2010, the party who is convinced the polling samples are screwing them is usually the one less happy about the electoral outcome.
IN OTHER NEWS…
- A few other pollsters took a shot at gauging President Obama’s job approval this week. Automated pollsters YouGov were the only ones to find the President underwater, with a 46/48 spread. Pew found the President at a net positive, albeit under 50% approval (49/42). Meanwhile, Ipsos/Reuters closely resembles the numbers for Fox News, giving the President a 51/46 spread on his approval.
- Alan Abramowitz looks back at history, and says that it is on President Obama’s side. His conclusion—the key stat is how many terms the incumbent’s party has held the White House. Only once in the past century (Jimmy Carter in 1980) have voters given up on a party who had held the WH for only a single four-year span of time.
- Would this be the 182nd or 183rd GOP officeholder or former officeholder contemplating a Presidential bid? Apparently, you can add the name of former Alabama Governor Bob Riley to the mix. One of his chief backers: Joe Scarborough, who seems to have shed that whole “No Labels” thing in time to talk up a challenger to President Obama.
- The nominally nonpartisan (but practically very Republican) Nebraska state legislature is likely to deny Barack Obama a single electoral vote by reverting to a winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes in the state. It is hardly a time-honored tradition (dating back only to the 1990s), but polls had shown that President Obama was doing very well in the Omaha-based 2nd district, even as he was getting thumped elsewhere in this red state.
THE RACE FOR THE SENATE
ARIZONA: No new data to report out of the Grand Canyon State, but the political events set off by the retirement of Republican Senator Jon Kyl have dominated the Senate-based political headlines this week. As the link above notes, a lot of the jockeying for this Senate seat (the first open Senate seat here in nearly two decades) is going to be enhanced by the redistricting which will break the state up into nine districts (instead of the current eight districts). Quirky Congressman Jeff Flake seems like a lock to run (with support from the Club For Growth), but he could be joined by several of his compatriots. Republican Trent Franks and Democrat Ed Pastor are being mentioned as possibilities, and the most intriguing prospect may well be the convalescing Gabrielle Giffords. Giffords’ name came up upon the late week revelation that she had discussed a bid if the seat came open before the assassination attempt on her in January. Meanwhile, a few other very intriguing names are in the mix on the GOP side, as apparently notorious Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio is flirting with a bid, and even former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner is seeing his name being bandied about. Two names took themselves out of the running, and at least one of them was a big surprise. Former Congressman John Shadegg declined to make a bid. Shadegg has a national profile with conservative activists, and would have been formidable in a primary. Also declining a bid, a bit more predictably, was Arizona Governor Jan Brewer.
NEW MEXICO (PPP): If longtime Democratic Senator Jeff Bingaman seeks another term in the Senate, he can expect to be re-elected. Such is the verdict from last week’s PPP poll in the Land of Enchantment, where Bingaman enjoys double-digit leads over any of the trio of high-profile Republicans tested. Bingaman leads former Governor Gary Johnson by 11 points (51-40), and is staked to larger leads over former Congresswoman Heather Wilson (56-37) and current Congressman Steven Pearce (57-34). Should Bingaman retire, the race gets infinitely more competitive, but ONLY if Johnson runs for the GOP. Against the more likely candidates (Wilson and Pearce), either of the state’s Democratic Congressmen (Martin Heinrich and Ben Ray Lujan) have leads of 8-15 points.
VIRGINIA: A handful of things have occurred since Wednesday, when the piece in the link was front-paged here at Daily Kos. One Democrat considered to be a likely entrant into the sweepstakes, recently defeated Congressman Glenn Nye, elected not to make a bid. All eyes are now on former Governor Tim Kaine, but it still seems to be a less than 50/50 prospect that Kaine will give up his perch as head of the Democratic National Committee to make a bid. There is an effort to “draft” Kaine, and there is also an alternative campaign to draft former Congressman Tom Perriello. Meanwhile, one Democratic player seems eager to draft himself into the race, as NoVa Congressman Gerry Connolly is talking himself up as a “viable candidate.” The state party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner is next weekend, and it will be interesting to see if the picture of who will emerge as the Democratic frontrunner will emerge before then.
IN OTHER NEWS…
- Let the teabagging begin! Local tea party activist Andrew Ian Dodge is in for a primary challenge to Maine Senator Olympia Snowe, and was making the rounds at CPAC this weekend. PPP may well poll this race next week, so we might have data about the viability of his primary challenge sooner than later.
- He is only considered a second-tier target for the GOP, but New Jersey freshman Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez can take solace in the fact that his poll numbers appear to be edging upward. Once underwater, he now holds a still modest-but-improving 44/36 spread in his job approval, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.
- With one Democratic retirement this week came a piece of news to suggest that another possible retiree might try stick around, after all. Ben Nelson has hired a campaign manager for the 2012 cycle, in the form of his 2006 manager, Paul Johnson. Nelson has an uphill fight to retain his seat in red Nebraska, with Attorney General Jon Bruning and Treasurer Don Stenberg both ramping up to make bids for the seat.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPS
CA-36: Much has changed since Monday, when the news broke that the first special election of the 2012 cycle would be necessitated by the pending resignation of longtime LA-area Congresswoman Jane Harman. Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn jumped in almost immediately, and has already amassed a number of endorsements from high-profile Democratic political players like LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Assembly Speaker John Perez. Popular Secretary of State Debra Bowen is taking a more contemplative approach, emailing supporters over the weekend to gauge support for a bid. Meanwhile, 2008/10 Harman primary challenger Marcy Winograd seems to be waiting to see what Bowen will do. If Bowen demurs from a bid (which is, admittedly, unlikely), Winograd would seem to be a lock. Winograd did not seem enamored with Hahn. On the GOP side, the two most-often mentioned names are 2010 GOP nominee Mattie Fein (who was defeated easily by Harman last year) and 2010 statewide nominee Damon Dunn, who was defeated (ironically) by Debra Bowen in his bid for Secretary of State. Another name getting some buzz was 2010 state legislative candidate Nathan Mintz, who is a local tea party leader who ran respectably, losing only 50-43 in a Dem-friendly Assembly district.
NY-26: In the wake of the almost comical chain of events that led to the resignation of Republican Congressman Christopher Lee, the field is slowly coming together in upstate New York. Most of the news thus far has been about who was not running, rather than who was actually running. For a fairly thorough assessment of the potential Democrats in the field, The Albany Project has a few offerings on the matter. One complicating factor regarding this seat is the fact that it might not exist past this year, as this seat is a probable target for contraction as the state of New York needs to shed seats in the redistricting process.