During the week of August 27, 2012, the Republican National Convention will convene in Tampa, Florida. Its mission? To nominate the next President of the United States.
Here come experienced pros, untested newcomers, villains, heroes and novices, the battered and bruised. Be forewarned, this is an opinion piece more suitable for drinkers of Fair Trade coffee than tea.
In alphabetical order by their best-known first names ...
1. Christopher James “Chris” Christie
Governor of New Jersey (2009 to the present). Full-throated advocate for the conservative agenda: lower taxes, slash budgets, claim public school teachers are overpaid. Kill participation in expensive infrastructure, in this case, a proposed rail tunnel to New York. Burly bumptious Jersey guy who relishes confrontation. Candidacy forecast chiefly by northeastern media outlets who see him in action. A run is possible but he can’t wait too long for field-testing as a nationally viable candidate in 2012.
2. Donald John Trump
Real estate baron, TV personality and accomplished self-help motivational speaker who thrives on celebrity. With bluster, perm and panache, The Donald cannot resist promoting himself as a political contender. As political lightweight newcomer, he’d have to self-finance his campaign. Odds on likely to get Fired early.
3. Haley Barbour
Governor of Mississippi (2004-present; term-limited this year). As RNC chairman (1993-97), credited with producing big winning years for Congressional Republicans. Successful, too, says Politico, as a “mega-lobbyist.” He is a favorite of political insiders, admired and respected even by wizened Democrats. Smart and With It, he speaks plainly and compellingly. Screwed up big time last December, though, when he nostalgically praised local White Citizens Councils in the south for not being as bad as the KKK during the 60’s. He can play the part of a good ol’ boy but don’t kid yourself, this man has more political mojo than most.
One of the few Republicans capable of goin’ good in head-to-head debate with Barack Obama. Needs to attract a lot of money and attention outside the south … and he hasn’t so far. Despite the love from pols and pundits inside-the-beltway, they are discounting his chances. We shouldn’t.
4. John Ellis “Jeb” Bush
Former governor of Florida (1999-2007). An engaging guy. On most issues, he’s conservative and surely comfortable at a Tea Party with a lump or two of moderation. Worst characteristic: he suffers from a family name that remains toxic to many voters. Jeb has said “the door is closed” on running for President in 2012. We should take him at his word. Should 2012 turn out to be a Republican debacle, he may well take a different look at 2016.
5. John Huntsman
Who?, you ask. Former Utah governor (2005-09) who announced his resignation as the Obama-appointed US Ambassador to China in January 2011. Even with his nominating speech for Sarah Palin at the 2008 convention, he is regarded as a moderate for his positions on many social issues and the stimulus. It's just possible some might see him as a vice-presidential running mate who could appeal to independents while the GOP’s presidential aspirant goes out and excites The Base. Still, that could be too close to the throne for the Hard Right.
6. Lindsey Olin Graham
US Senator from South Carolina (2003-current). Bright guy. Usually outspokenly conservative but can occasionally sidle up to moderates. One of the “Gang of 14” who engineered the compromise to sidestep Democratic filibuster threats and “the nuclear option” in 2005. It is said he was a friend of IL Senator Barack Obama, though neither seems to be playing that up now. Being any kind of friend of this President would be enough to chill Graham’s chances in his party. (It might not helping President Obama much, either.) On the list, yes, but he’d probably have to be surer of winning before he’d deal himself in.
7. Michele Marie Bachmann
Creates a spotlight wherever she stands. Seemingly effortlessly able to attract media attention with memorable sound bites that bite in every sense of the word. Excels at saying-absolutely-outlandish-things-and-not-stopping-to-breathe. Proves that a seemingly well-educated person (two law degrees!) can come across as vacuous. An Almost for leadership in this Congress, but Boehner & Co. declined to raise her to a top post in the House in 2011. Her consolation prize was to chair the new House Tea Party Caucus. She is gifted at evading fact-checking, aided in this endeavor by the reporters who cover her. Among her notable achievements was introducing The Light Bulb Freedom of Choice Act. As one commentator observed, that made her pro-choice on bulbs. (You cannot make this stuff up!)
Her historically conservative district sits like a dark and menacing cloud over the enlightened district to its south, Minneapolis and environs, which stunned the world (and not just a few Minnesota DFLers) when it elected Democrat Keith Ellison as the first African-American to represent Minnesota in the House, Congress’s first Muslim.
More light deserves to be shed on Michele's ultra-outré views. Pour her forth, Tea Partyists everywhere, and a good time will be had by all!
8. Michael Dale “Mike” Huckebee
Another former Arkansas governor (1996-2007) born in Hope. Won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 but dropped in primaries that followed and couldn’t attract enough money to stay in. Smart, personable, witty, he has an engaging smile, thinks on his feet and is the quintessential campaign speaker in front of crowds and cameras. He could do gigs with Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, tape a couple cameos for MSNBC, then go standup as an SNL host – all in the same night – and give a good account of himself.
But he is fallible. Item: his protracted plodge on a recent radio show. “What I know is troubling enough. And one thing that I do know is [Obama's] having grown up in Kenya …” Huck went on to tell us how Obama’s views were shaped by growing up in Kenya with a Kenyan father and grandfather, influenced by Mau Maus, etc. This deluded confabulation was quickly compounded by his spokesman who dismissed it: “He simply misspoke.” Uh, uh, not credible.
As a Baptist minister, he must believe in redemption and ought to recover from this one. But whatever propelled him to say it might still be in him; another like it could be his last Huzzah. That said, Huckabee could be one of the most challenging nominees in 2012.
9. Mitchell Elias “Mitch” Daniel
Governor of Indiana (2005-present). Midwestern solid, well regarded and not fellow Indianan Dan Quayle. A former corporate businessman (Eli Lilly), he cuts, caps and privatizes, and when revenues drop, he declares a crisis. So far he’s managed this game plan with some rancor, but less visibility outstate compared to the brutish heavy-handedness in Wisconsin. He is not known as a social conservative hawk, making him someone adult Republicans could consider to take the heat off those electorally volatile issues and concentrate it on taxes, spending and personal freedom.
He seems to be romancing with the possibility of running in 2012. Is he willing to undergo the pain of leaving a safe chair and a good life to raise potloads of campign stash from the money crowd, take advice from too many consultants, make appearances everywhere all of the time, put up with naysayers in the backwaters and edgy questioners in the bigger outlets, etc.? As he surveys the field so far, quite possibly. Take his potential seriously.
10. Willard Mitt Romney
Ex-governor of Massachusetts (2003-07). Previously, a highly successful businessman (Chairman of Bain & Company and Bain Capital) and wealthy because of it. Captured attention with his wonderful certainty that Seamus, his Irish Setter, actually enjoyed his 12 hour ride tearing down the highways strapped outside the family station wagon. (As I recall, years after the fact, Mitt lost the adulation of conservative voice Tucker Carlson with that explanation.) Nevertheless, this candidate, already running hard, looks made-for-TV Presidential, much as Ronald Reagan did. We know where that image got us.
Romney’s triumph is what has been termed “near universal health insurance coverage” in Massachusetts. It was the right thing to do, it seems to be going well enough, it has been copied and it was his high point as a moderate Republican governor. This kind of reform was too little for Progressives and too much, much too much, for Conservatives. So today, his rivals refer to it endlessly as they try to dig his demise deeper. In addition – did you notice? – he’s Mormon, a fact that should not make any difference in a country as diverse as ours, but he has to court a party with a goodly number of Christian Evangelicals. Push will almost certainly come to shove Mitt out as it did before.
11. Newton Leroy “Newt” Gingrich
Loves politics and the political prominence he once enjoyed as author and champion of the Contract for America and Speaker of the House (1995-99). Highly critical of ethical lapses in others, he became the first Speaker to be disciplined on ethics charges (on a 325-98 vote in 1997). He also had to shoulder blame for some big Republican election losses. Has become a prolific writer and irrepressible speaker.
Waffled on running in 2008, then apparently couldn’t raise enough money and returned to chairing a grassroots group he had helped to form. Once again, he is teasing out pre-announcements of his candidacy to us almost daily. So far, there’s nothing to think the outcome will be different than it was for him in 2008.
12. Dr. Randal Howard “Rand” Paul
Former opthamologist who became a visionary Libertarian. His first public office was in 2011 as freshman senator from Kentucky with vigorous Tea Party backing. The main lesson his candidacy teaches is never to let your ego or your scheduler get you into an interview where you have to explain your retro views to a persistent interviewer like, hhmm, Rachel Maddow, who will surely probe your Ayn Rand absolutism. Tea Party Goers, if you could team him up with Sarah or Michele, the chemistry would add a new element to the known universe.
13. Richard John “Rick” Santorum
Uber-arch outspoken Conservative. Smooth, articulate, handsome. Even farther out than most others on this list. Resoundingly defeated for a third term in 2008 (41% to 51%) despite support from the Arkansas territory of Pennsylvania. Resonates with the social conservative base on positions that would ensure a huge moderate/ independent/ undecided voter turnoff.
Election returns in the state that knows him best should be sufficient to convince the party’s elders (of whom there seem to be so many these days) not to stake their futures on him.
14. Dr. Ronald Ernest “Ron” Paul
Ex-flight surgeon drawn to seek public office on that fateful day in 1971 when Richard Nixon took the US off the gold standard. (Now that sure was a last straw, a day to remember!) A purist. Despite that he represents a chunk of Texas’ Gulf coastline and much of his district is farmland, his principles brought him to oppose Federal flood insurance coverage and farm subsidies. His ideas seem outer-space unrealistic, perfect for the annual CPAC conclave in DC of true believers who are more eager than ever to see Ron run in 2012.
Carping aside, this man is an honest, earnest, knowledgeable speaker who can light up serious debates. Far outside the mainstream as his views are, he has the rare and refreshing ability to set audiences to thinking. One of a kind.
15. Rudolph William Louis “Rudy” Guiliani
The right Mayor for worst crisis in recent New York history. That was then. Passed over as a presidential candidate in 2008. Not a chance in 2012, despite grudging support and a tough prosecutor image, and he knows it. Besides, he can make far more money as a New York lawyer, lobbyist and public speaker. Not to be discounted, however, as a possible VP candidate?
16. Sarah Louise Palin
Dear Sarah,
You have so much more experience than a mere elitist community organizer: attended four or five colleges before graduating; spent months as a sportscaster and reporter; elected to the City Council of Wasila and then its mayor; held state-wide posts; rose to Governor of Alaska (2006-09), a state uniquely reliant on Federal largesse. You distinguished yourself as a proud champion of that Bridge to Nowhere, an earmark project which a US Republican Senate, atypically embarrassed by ridicule, ultimately reneged on financing. (In fairness, we note that Alaska still kept the Federal funds for use on other vital projects. Way to go, political pro!)
And you had the grace to resign the governorship before completing your first term, despite your strong and successful defense of irksome ethics charges because, among other reasons, you could help the state more when you were out of office. No argument there.
Phoenix-like, you reinvented yourself as the media's darling, transfixing passionate viewers who now breathlessly hang on your every twitter and tweet. Appealing and photogenic, you are the Person We Want to Live Next Door. (Again, in fairness, there are some Americans who do not want the person next door to be President.)
You have a firm lock on, what?, approximately 27.4% of the vote. An enviable start! Your next challenge will be to deal with political pros of all stripes on major complex issues requiring more than 140 characters including spaces. You’ll need to sit for briefings by even more egotistical people. You’ll have to absorb what you’re hearing so well that you can repeat it back with accurate variations, sometimes without notes. You must become more receptive to interviews with journalists, at least a determined few of whom will ask questions while their cameras keep running. If you can be reborn again and thereby erase our memories and the videos of who you used to be ...
... we beg you to Run, Baby, Run! As of now, you are our best chance in 2012.
17. Scott Kevin Walker
Talk about a meteoric rise ... and a fall that could resemble Icarus. Until recently unknown outside his state, he rose from Assemblyman to Milwaukee County Executive to Governor on January 3, 2011. Within weeks, this prodigy grabbed the Republican playbook full of board-certified, hard-core, damn-the-torpedos revisionist ideology and ran with it, and the rest is history.
With OJT, he mastered question-ducking, subject-shifting, talking-point reiterating, and putting blame on others. But then along came a silly and ill-advised 20-minute conversation with a faux-David Koch. Every day the protests continue, he gets more and more beleaguered by reactions from his constituents, by Republican legislators who have to co-exist with their Democratic colleagues, by professional office holders from elsewhere who are slyly disassociating themselves from his tactics if not his agenda. And now, by a groundswell of interest in recall petitions, too soon under the law to reach him but timely for many of his Republican followers already in marginal districts put at risk by the governor’s unyielding stance.
For he violated a Cardinal Rule of Politics: Always take a position from which you can gracefully recede. He rested his “Budget Repair” plan on busting unions in a state that historically made labor causes a priority, a state under a siege that WI Democratic Senator Jon Erpenbach termed “a hostile corporate takeover.”
Walker is becoming a household word. Several such words in fact, many of them uncomplimentary.
18. Timothy James “Tim” Pawlenty
Former Governor of Minnesota (2003-2011). Hats off to thee! Doing his best not to join a long line of MN governors no one hears much from afterwards. Elected by an extraordinarily thin margin; narrowly re-elected; apparently on the short list for running mate to John McCain; did not stand for a reelection as governor. America does, indeed, like Midwestern nice, but Garrison Keilor has captured that image.
Good guy, he may be, but anyone who jabbers on the campaign trail about his “red-hot smokin’ wife” “who genuinely loves to fish” – “genuinely! – might be thought to be a wuss, albeit an envied one on both counts. Do Iowans like Minnesotans? Can T-Paw shed a persistently dark horse image every time his name gets mentioned? Will he pledge that if he's victorious in Iowa, ethanol would be his liquid of choice? Only time will tell.
19. Someone Else
Anyone? Anyone?