The Eyes on Egypt and the Region group is providing breaking news and discussion of present events of the revolutionary conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East in its diary series Witnessing Revolution. Along with that initiative we are also providing background and analysis on the region to provide a context for the daily news. The two previous diaries in this background series are:
A Region in Protest and Revolt
Will Arab Nationalism Shape the Course of the Reviolutions?
This diary focuses on Saudi Arabia, which for a number of reasons, is one of the major linchpins in the region.
The Arabian peninsula has been controlled by various tribes and empires at different times in history. In 1932 the bulk of the geographic territory was consolidated into the present day Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It is a nation state often described as an absolute Islamic monarchy. What makes it a significant geopolitical player is that it has the world's largest oil reserves and is the world's largest oil producer.
So far there have not been the sort of public demonstrations and protests in Saudi Arabia that have occurred in a number of other countries in the region. Activities of Saudis who are attempting to organize such protests have been limited to social media. However, even in the absence of open protests Saudi Arabia exerts a strong force on events in the region.
The government of Saudi Arabia is under the absolute control of the royal family of the House of Saud and the Islamic clerics of the Ulema. The royal family is comprised of the descendants of King Abdul Aziz. There seems to be no clear agreement on how many people qualify as such but they number in the many thousands. In practice there are about 200 male descendants who exercise political power. The country has a population of 25 million people. They have no political voice in the conduct of the government.
Oil reserves were discovered on the east coast in 1938. They attained a level of full production by the late 40s. Along with the sudden flow of money this brought the first major culture shock. The western oil companies brought in a significant number of foreigners to what was a decidedly xenophobic place. The governing royals were quick to adopt lavish new lifestyles. The familial relationships of the royal family have often taken on Byzantine plotting and intrigue with the occasional assassination.
In 1973 Saudi Arabia and other middle eastern oil producers initiated the Arab oil boycott in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to pressure the US to withhold support for Israel. The rise of the Islamic revival/revolution during the 1970s had major repercussions for Saudi society. Saudi Arabia is a majority Sunni country, but has a significant Shia minority in the Easter Province where most of the oil is. That is in turn connected to Bahrain which has a Shia majority but a Sunni monarchy. SA's Sunni Islam is of the Wahhabi branch which has a fundamentalist and militant disposition.
The new militant Islamic spirit fueled a drive against what they saw as western culture that was corrupting the values of Islam. These protests culminated in an attack on the Grand Mosque in Mecca. The royal family responded to this threat by instituting a stricter enforcement of Islamic practices and giving the Ulema (the council of Muslim scholars) a greater role in the law and its enforcement.
Despite periodic tensions over issues about Israel and arm sales, SA has maintained close diplomatic relations with the US since the 1940s. It has made common cause with the US in opposition to the regimes in Iran and Iraq. During the 1991 Gulf War they allowed the US forces to base their attacks against Iraqi occupied Kuwait in their territory and continued to allow US bases following the war. The presence of these foreign forces was an issue of contention with militant Islamists. However, they opposed the US led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
The government of SA has long relied on its vast financial resources to pacify a population that is completely without political and civil rights as we think of them in the west. About 30% of the 25 M people are foreign nationals who are there in the status of guest workers. Most of them are from South Asia and perform the types of menial chores that Saudis don't want to do. However, the economy is heavily under government control and the availability of well paying government jobs has not kept pace with a growing population. The same population growth has created a housing shortage. In the face of the mounting regional tensions the King has followed the traditional response to trouble by announcing a $15B housing program.
SA has declared the Koran and Islamic law as the basis of its constitution. The legal system prescribes capital punishment or corporal punishment.Theft can be punished by amputation of the hand, although it is rarely prescribed for a first offense. The courts may impose other harsh punishments, such as floggings, for less serious crimes against public morality such as drunkenness. Murder, accidental death and bodily harm are open to punishment from the victim's family. Retribution may be sought in kind or through blood money. The freedom of women is seriously restricted in Saudi Arabia. Women are not allowed to travel without the permission of their closest male relative, who may be a son or a younger brother. Women who are divorced, return under their father's authority and like any other adult woman is denied the right to live on her own and to marry of her free will. Furthermore, the Saudi government considers filial "disobedience" as a crime for which women have been imprisoned or have lost custody of their child. Saudi Arabia is the only country in the world where women are banned from driving in major cities and towns.
There are numerous sources of tension within Saudi society. There are the conflicts between the various Islamic sects that were described above. Tribal society still plays an important role in the less urban areas and there are conflicts within and among tribes. There is a faction of liberal pro-democracy advocates some of whom have been educated in the west. The Islamic activist have committed a number of acts of violent protest in the country. It has also been an export to the rest of the world with Osama bin Laden and his merry band being the best known examples.
The SA regime has been attempting to provide support and if necessary refuge to their fellow autocrats in neighboring countries. The fires of revolution are burning closer. There are recurring violent clashes in their immediate neighbors of Yemen, Oman and Bahrain. It seems increasingly unlikely that they will be able to keep the lid on tight. If they are faced with the kind of mass protests that have occurred elsewhere it seems reasonable to expect the government to resort to vicious and violent response. They have a very well equipped modern military with the latest gadgets purchased from the US of A. Were Saudi Arabia to erupt in revolutionary chaos it would raise the possibility of geopolitical destabilization. The world's great powers can sit back nervously and watch what happens in less critical locations. It is really difficult to conceive of international detachment if faced with the fall of the House of Saud.