I like expressions that have a contradictory quality to them. E.g.,
1) The more things change, the more they stay the same.
2) Be the kind of person who takes supplements, but don't take supplements.
3) Nobody goes to this restaurant anymore. It's too busy.
Yet, once explained, these expressions make some sense. My interpretations:
1) This is referring to the observation that many superficial details can change, while the essential situation remains unaltered.
2) This is referring to the observation that studies show that supplements don't make people healthier, but the kind of people who take supplements are those that exercise and eat right which are practices that do confer health benefits.
3) This is referring to the observation that familiar people (e.g., family, friends, coworkers, etc) are avoiding the restaurant as a result of dissatisfying experiences attributed to the crowds (e.g., long wait times, little parking, too much noise, etc).
So, what does this expression mean:
4) It's a hopeless situation, but there's hope.
My interpretation is the subject of the rest of the diary. But here's the condensed version:
4) This is referring to the observation that there is no foreseeable way in which the situation can improve, but there is the possibility that beneficial events could happen that we have not yet imagined, that we regard as practically impossible, or that we estimate as very unlikely.
This reminds me of the following adage:
5) There's what you expect, there's what you don't expect, and then there's what happens.
My interpretation:
5) There are some events that you believe will happen; other events that you don't think will happen but you're well aware of their possibility; and then there are other events that you have scarcely imagined but with surprising frequency those kinds of events actually do occur.
It also reminds me of the idea called the "Black Swan", which was defined by Nassim Taleb and which is described by wikipedia as follows:
6) The event is a surprise (to the observer).
7) The event has a major impact.
8) After its first recording, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected (e.g., the relevant data were available but not accounted for).
In the following video, Taleb describes Black Swans as being events that have "low predictability, high consequence, and are retrospectively predictable."
Though people generally regard Black Swans as harmful events, Taleb tries to make clear that these events can be very positive. E.g., here is a selection from his book "The Black Swan":
Sir Francis Bacon commented that the most important advances are the least predictable ones, those "lying out of the path of the imagination." ... Take this dramatic example of a serendipitous discovery. Alexander Fleming was cleaning up his laboratory when he found that penicillium mold had contaminated one of his experiments. He thus happened upon the antibacterial properties of penicillin, the reason many of us are alive today ... True, Fleming was looking for "something," but the actual discovery was simply serendipitous. Furthermore, while in hindsight the discovery appears momentous, it took a very long time for health officials to realize the importance of what they had on their hands. Even Fleming lost faith in the idea before it was subsequently revived.
One interesting quality about positive Black Swans is that you can indirectly create them, even though they are random, unpredictable, and uncontrollable. Here are some ways:
9) Be active and seek variety (e.g., hobbies, experiences, places, people, books, etc).
10) Be aware of what you want, be observant, try to see opportunities, and then seize them. (i.e., "Chance favors the prepared mind." If you know what you want and are ready, you will recognize and seize an opportunity when it comes along.)
11) Be willing to try a lot and learn from "trial and error", but take measured risks.
12) Be involved in undertakings with huge upside potential but limited downside potential.
The above list is largely a distillation of Taleb's writing on positive Black Swans. Here are some quotes:
13) "Don't look for the precise and the local. Simply, do not be narrow-minded. The great discover Pasteur, who came up with the notion that chance favors the prepared, understood that you do not look for something particular every morning but work hard to let contingency enter your working life."
14) "Seize any opportunity or anything that looks like an opportunity. They are rare, much rarer than you think. Remember that positive Black Swans have a necessary first step: you need to be exposed to them. Many people do not realize that they are getting a lucky break in life when they get it. If a big publisher (or a big art dealer or a movie executive or a hotshot banker or a big thinker) suggests an appointment, cancel anything you have have planned: you may never see such a window open up again. I am sometimes shocked at how little people realize that these free opportunities do not grow on trees. ... Go to parties! If you're a scientist, you will chance upon a remark that might spark new research."
15) "Trial and error means trying a lot. ... We have psychological and intellectual difficulties with trial and error, and with accepting that series of small failures are necessary in life. ... You need to love to lose. ... In fact, the reason I felt immediately home in America is precisely because American culture encourages the process of failure, unlike the cultures of Europe and Asia where failure is met with stigma and embarrassment. America's specialty is to take these small risks for the rest of the world, which explains this country's disproportionate share in innovations."
16) "Learn to distinguish between those human undertakings in which the lack of predictability can be (or has been) extremely beneficial and those where the failure to understand the future caused harm. ... Aside from the movies, examples of positive-Black Swan business are: some segments of publishing, scientific research, and venture capital. In these business, you lose small to make big."
17) "Barbell Strategy of investing: You need to put a portion, say 85% to 90% in extremely safe instruments like Treasury Bills ... The remaining 10% to 15% you put in extremely speculative bets. (Make sure you have plenty of these small bets; avoid being blinded by the vividness of a single Black Swan. Have as many of these small bets as you can conceivably have.) ... [Take] maximum exposure to the positive Black Swans while remaining paranoid about the negative ones."
So, just to rejoin the original thread of this discussion, there is always hope in any situation, given that something could happen near or beyond the limits of our imagination, thereby giving us opportunities which can be seized to great benefit, if we are observant and prepared. We can even play a role in generating these unpredictable events that seem to come "out of the blue."
A close synonym for the positive Black Swan is "serendipity", which is defined as an instance of making a fortunate discovery via accident. Interestingly, I noticed one definition of the word is "the faculty of making fortunate discoveries by accident." In other words, some people have a faculty or ability to do this.
Also, the impression of hopelessness may result from too much focus on the negatives. For example, if you over-consume the daily news, it may give the impression that the course of history is a steadily downward trek into a dark abyss and we are currently on the lowest point and moving even lower. But in many ways, things are better than ever before and there's always much to be thankful for. Taleb writes, "Imagine a speck of dust next to a planet a billion times the size of the earth. The speck of dust represents the odds in favor of your being born; the huge planet would be the odds against it. So stop sweating the small stuff. Don't be like the ingrate who got a castle as a present and worried about the mildew in the bathroom. Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth - remember that you are a Black Swan."
So, count your blessings and keep an eye out for the positive Black Swans.