Overall support for Obama in 2012 is very similar among those on the Left who do and do not think Obama is too conservative, although there are a few demographic differences between the two groups.
Over the past two months, 8.5% of voters polled in the DailyKos/PPP polls (weighted by age, n=8013) have said that Obama is too conservative.
Of those who said Obama is too conservative, 27% themselves identified as Conservatives or Republicans. Since we’re looking at opionon on the Left, we don’t want to include these people. (Just to be sure, I checked, and yes, these people were indeed, as a group, on the political right, for example on the issue of gay marriage.)
Of those on the left who said Obama is too conservative, 83% have a favorable opinion of Obama, and 78% approve of Obama’s job performance. 84% would vote for him in 2012. This is actually better than among those on the left who didn’t say Obama is too conservative; only 77% of them would vote for him in 2012.
Of those on the left who said Obama is too conservative and they would not vote for him in 2012, 54% said they would vote for the Republican.
So the maximum amount of people on the Left who think Obama is too conservative and may be planning to vote for a third-party candidate or not vote is 46% of 16% of 73% of 8.5% - or just under 0.5% of registered voters. This is probably an underestimate because the question in the poll did not explicitly ask about any third party candidates. Also, many people who are planning to vote may not end up voting in the end because of lack of enthusiasm.
In 2008, about 0.7% of votes went to Ralph Nader (Independent) or Cynthia McKinney (Green), for comparison.
Here’s the chart:
Who on the Left thinks Obama is too conservative?
Those on the Left who think Obama is too conservative are slightly younger, more white, more male, more from the West, and far more liberal than those on the Left who don’t think Obama is too conservative. Here’s a few comparisons:
Including moderates who lean Democratic with those on the left may be casting our net too wide though – let’s compare just Liberals who think Obama is too conservative with those who don’t. We still see pretty much the same differences, a little greater now, with a new twist in that Liberals who think Obama is too conservative are more likely to identify as Independents than Liberals who don’t think Obama is too conservative.
What are their political views?
Those who view Obama as too conservative are much more likely to disapprove of the job McConnell is doing as well. Those who do not view Obama as too conservative are much more likely to be unsure of their opinion of McConnell. To a lesser extent, the same is true of Reid. Among just Liberals, those who view Obama as too conservative are also a little more likely to disapprove of Obama and have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. Those who view Obama as too conservative are also a little more likely to support gay marriage. Here’s the comparisons:
Consequences
As we previewed in the intro, very few people say Obama is too conservative and are not willing to vote for Obama. But when we look at percents, we find that views of Obama’s ideology make a surprisingly small amount of difference in professed voting behavior.
Among those on the Left, those who find Obama too conservative are actually slightly more likely to vote for him than those who don’t. This is probably explained by the fact that far more of these people identify as Liberal, and they are more likely to disapprove of Republicans.
The reverse is true among just Liberals. Liberals who find Obama too conservative – being, perhaps, the most liberal of the Liberals – are slightly less likely to say they will vote for Obama. However, even among this group, an overwhelming majority say they will vote for Obama – 87%.
So Obama is not losing many votes among those who think he is too conservative, but what about enthusiasm? Again, we see differences that are surprisingly small. Among both the Left and Liberals, those who think Obama is too conservative are a little less likely to be ‘very enthusisatic’ about the 2012 Presidential election.
To repeat: Despite some demographic differences, overall voting behavior is very similar among those on the Left who do and do not think Obama is too conservative. Among those on the Left who think Obama is too conservative, the vast majority still approve of Obama, and are planning to vote for him in 2012, with enthusiasm.
Note: you may see a poll below this. That is an ad, not a diary poll.