Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Missouri voters,
Dec. 2010 in parens):
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45 (45)
Sarah Steelman (R): 42 (44)
Undecided: 14 (12)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45
Todd Akin (R): 44
Undecided: 11
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46
Ed Martin (R): 40
Undecided: 14
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45
Ann Wagner (R): 36
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±4%)
Tom Jensen takes the words right out of my mouth:
Less noteworthy than the difference between McCaskill's single point lead against Akin and her nine point advantage against Wagner is that McCaskill's support shows no variation from 45-46% across the four match ups. The Republicans get varying levels of support pretty much directly in line with their name recognition: 44% know Akin, 44% know Steelman, 34% know Martin, and only 26% know Wagner. The GOP field is largely anonymous at this point.
McCaskill's leads, even as small as they are, shouldn't be particularly reassuring for her. There are at least twice as many undecided Republicans as Democrats in each match up, suggesting that once the GOP candidates become better known they will probably catch up to her pretty quickly.
One thing to note, though, is that the gathering field for the GOP represents something of a B-team, especially with Akin unlikely to get in. And while the group as a whole, as Tom notes, is mostly unknown, they all have negative favorables among those who do know them, except for Steelman, who doesn't fare much better with a flat even 22-22. I think a Steelman-Martin primary could be extremely toxic, and something McCaskill has to be rooting for.
If there's a silver lining here, it's that PPP has a 38D, 37R, 25I sample. That's a lot less Dem than the 40D-34R that the 2008 exit polls had it as, but a little better than the than the 39R-37D 2006 exit polls.