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Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, "usual" Maine Republican primary voters, no trendlines):

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 43
Scott D'Amboise (R): 18
Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 10
Undecided: 28

Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 33
Republican Jesus (R): 58
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±4.7%)

I agree with Tom: These numbers are not good for Snowe, not at all. D'Amboise and Dodge are truly at Some Dude levels, with only 5% and 2% (two percent!) favorables respectively, and yet the incumbent manages to score only 43% of primary voters. Moreover, as Tom reminds us, "Lisa Murkowski's approval with Republicans in January of 2010 was 77/13 and Mike Castle's in March of 2009 at an identical point in the cycle was 69/24." As I've been saying all along, if the Tea Party Express or the Club for Growth throws down here, Snowe is in a heap of trouble. (By the way, "Republican Jesus" is the technical term for what PPP calls "a more conservative challenger.")

This is all very poignant for Snowe, because, look:

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/3-6, Maine voters, no trendlines):

Emily Cain (D): 20
Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 64
Undecided: 16

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 18
Olympia Snowe (R-inc): 66
Undecided: 17

Emily Cain (D): 33
Scott D'Amboise (R): 33
Undecided: 34

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 29
Scott D'Amboise (R): 36
Undecided: 35

Emily Cain (D): 32
Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 30
Undecided: 37

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 29
Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 33
Undecided: 38
(MoE: ±2.8%)

Those are some massive numbers for an incumbent in a swing state. And note the crossover appeal—Emily Cain, for instance, does 13 points better against the nobodies (fellow nobodies?) than she does against Snowe. Yet Snowe might not even get the chance to have this fight. But like Yoda said, there is another....

Emily Cain (D): 17
Scott D'Amboise (R): 21
Olympia Snowe (I): 54
Undecided: 7

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 15
Scott D'Amboise (R): 20
Olympia Snowe (I): 56
Undecided: 9

Emily Cain (D): 15
Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 19
Olympia Snowe (I): 56
Undecided: 10

Rosa Scarcelli (D): 13
Andrew Ian Dodge (R): 19
Olympia Snowe (I): 57
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±2.8%)

In this hypothetical scenario where Snowe runs as an independent, she also posts huge numbers, peeling from both sides. I'll turn it over to Tom once more to provide the closing words:

If Snowe continues on as a Republican this is a race that an ambitious Democrat who doesn't have a ton to lose should really look at. Obviously if Snowe emerges as the Republican nominee you're going to lose and you're going to lose by a lot. If Snowe ends up running as an independent you're probably going to lose and you're probably going to lose by a lot. But if Snowe stays the course and gets taken out you might become Chris Coons—a guy who was willing to throw his name in the hat when it looked impossible and ended up coasting to an easy general election victory.

For Snowe there's a hard route to reelection and an easy one—it'll be interesting to see if she sticks with the hard one.

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