Anyone who has not been reading Chris Bowers's series of diaries on the prospects for Wisconsin recalls has been missing some of the shrewdest and most adept netroots political planning in memory. Chris, using David Nir's collections of stats, has identified six districts where Republican State Senators who are liable to recall can be recalled: Kapanke, Hopper, Darling, Harsdorf, Olsen, and Cowles. (He reports today that the early polling is already in on Kapanke and Hopper, and both are in deep gravy -- and this was before the Ash Wednesday Ashcanning of Labor.)
That's all well and good, but I find my eyes drifting longingly down the page, to Senate District 20. Glenn Grothman.
Glenn "[protesters are] a bunch of slobs taking up the building" Grothman. Glenn "re-elected in 2008 and therefore eligible for recall" Grothman. Glenn "got 60.6% of the vote and his district went for McCain with 63%" Grothman. Glenn "thinks he's safe" Grothman.
I would like to see Glenn Grothman out of politics. I want it real bad. But how?
Here's how.
It looks like Democrats can muster about 35% of the vote (surely much of it including independents) when they're aroused, as they were in 2008 (and are in 2011.) That's not enough to win a recall. Where can we find that other 15%?
Well, I ask you: is it possible that one out of four Republicans in Grothman's district is not rabid? Is it possible that they are shaking their head right now and thinking that some cooperation in the legislature would be helpful, that maybe gutting unions is a bit too far?
Is it possible that 25% of SD-20 Republicans do not feel well-represented by Grothman's statement about why he thought the protesters would remain non-violent:
"They're loud, they'll give you the finger, and they yell at you, but I really think deep down inside they're just mostly college kids having fun, just like they're having fun sleeping with their girlfriends on air mattresses. That's the guts of that crowd."
Yes, all of that is possible.
Is it possible -- is it possible -- that these people with thus vote for a Democrat?
Quit dreaming. No, it is not possible.
What these voters might be willing to do, though, is to "take their party back."
Don't kid yourself: some Republicans are better than other Republicans. Dale Schultz, the State Senator in SD-17, is better than most Republicans in Wisconsin. You can tell, because he was the "1" in the 18-1 vote for this union busting bill.
We may disagree with some such Republicans 90% of the time -- but we can (or should be able to) imagine working with them in an atmosphere of mutual respect and support for basic rights like collective bargaining.
Can we use this to beat Grothman in a recall? Yes, we can. How?
Don't run a Democrat in the race.
Let the word go forth, from Sheboygan to Fond du Loc to the very bowels of West Bend: we Democrats know that this is going to be a Republican district. We concede that this district will remain Republican for now. All we want -- all we want -- is to see it represented by a Republican who, while no doubt usually voting Republican, will be reasonable and constructive.
Grothman is neither, we point out. He has got to go.
So is there any ambitious "moderate" (or even conservative but not crazy and mean) Republican out there who might want to become a State Senator? Anyone who thinks he or she can pick off a quarter of the electorate while the Democrats band together gleefully to throw out Senator Slob? Maybe so.
Maybe not yet, though. All in time, my pretties, all in time.
Here's something important to keep in mind about recalls: they don't all have to be done at once. Hell, we know that Walker himself can't be recalled until November or January. The process will have to play out. Soft targets first, then harder ones.
I do not suggest adding Senator Slob to the initial list of recall targets. I suggest that it be announced that we will aim for his recall on or about ... Labor Day!
Labor Day, where students will be in school, but they may have spent some of the summer helping to organize SD-20.
Some of you may be familiar with a particular kind of horrible psycho-killer-horror-terror drama, where the extremely evil villain tells the real target of his wrath, who is held together with friends or family, "I'm gonna kill you last." The idea is to make the person suffer.
Well, I don't go in for that sort of thing myself, but in this case, it offers a useful guideline.
Right now, we may not be able to imagine a Republican coming forward and saying "I am a conservative but I will run to be a conciliator." But after a Wisconsin State Senator or two is recalled, that thinking may change. After six of them are, it almost surely will.
The thing that would prevent a recall being successful is if people thought that Grothman would be replaced by a Democrat. So: don't run a Democrat. Just invite someone sane in, someone who may help the Republicans drain the nut juice out of their party. Let them run as the Republican they are. We'll vote for them, just this once.
As much as people may enjoy their own recalls, the notion that if successful they get to have Grothman ejected from the Senate for dessert will be a fantastic motivator. Picture it: months of Grothman grawing his fingers down to the third knuckle as he sees his colleagues being picked off and realizes that people in his party don't ... really ... like him anymore.
Picture Grothman spending most of the summer knowing that the jackals are prowling around him in the night.
Recall him after the others. Let this be a preview of the recall against Walker. Walker will have to come out and support him strongly, after all. And Grothman will surely be good for some great sound-bites, with the spotlight open, that can be hung around Walker's neck in the following months.
I ask you: does this make you feel good? Does this make you feel like working harder? Like giving more money? We're not just going to take back control of the Senate -- we're going to make Grothman himself pay for being such a butt boil!
He thought he was safe ... but he's not safe!
Announce soon, my friends from Wisconsin, that Grothman is in our sights. He thought that he was safe -- but he is not safe from Republican fratricide as the party's milk sours over the course of the year. He will not be in office by the equinox.
It means voting for a Republican -- but one whom we can more or less choose as our reasonable opposition. You will never enjoy voting for a Republican more in your entire life.