Today the first even half-way plausible candidate for President announced: the incumbent. How crazy is it that the incumbent beat all of his possible opponents to the punch? I mean, by this time in the last election cycle, Joe Biden's ill-fated campaign had already begun and essentially ended (though he did stay in the race long enough to give us this immortal gem about Rudy Guiliani "a noun, a verb, and 9/11"). Anyway, to the announcement!
Today, we are filing papers to launch our 2012 campaign.
We're doing this now because the politics we believe in does not start with expensive TV ads or extravaganzas, but with you -- with people organizing block-by-block, talking to neighbors, co-workers, and friends. And that kind of campaign takes time to build.
So even though I'm focused on the job you elected me to do, and the race may not reach full speed for a year or more, the work of laying the foundation for our campaign must start today.
We've always known that lasting change wouldn't come quickly or easily. It never does. But as my administration and folks across the country fight to protect the progress we've made -- and make more -- we also need to begin mobilizing for 2012, long before the time comes for me to begin campaigning in earnest.
Look, this is not a "ra-ra, go team" kinda post. Three years ago, it would have been. But there have been far too many disappointments, far too many missed opportunities and squandered promise for me to jump in with both feet like I did three years ago. Most of the criticisms of Obama that have been aired in this DK community have been valid ones. Although I hoped and believed I was electing a man who would fight for a whole loaf of change but might be willing to settle for at least half a loaf, we ended up with a president who starts out only asking for half a loaf, if that wouldn't be too much of a bother, but lets it be known he'd settle for just a few crumbs of change. It's a sobering thought that those few crumbs of change, those few diluted hopes and dreams of '08 that we've realized over the last two years collectively constitute by far the largest amount of progressive change that has made its way through our broken political system in almost half a century. Taking the long view, those few crumbs of change shouldn't send us into despair and resignation, but only whet our appetite and strengthen our determination to keep fighting for that full loaf, for equality, peace, a just and equitable prosperity, investments in our nation's future, etc.
It also doesn't hurt that the other party is letting the lunatics run the asylum. The GOP "leaders" and all those who appear to be toying with the idea of "exploring" whether to launch a campaign are all either certified Lunatics or demagogues who know their only shot at winning the GOP nomination is to pander to the Lunatics as much as possible. The enemy of the good is the perfect, as my engineer friends say.
I guess, to answer Obama's question in the sidebar, I'm In. Not simply because the other side is far far worse or because I personally like Obama, but because I still believe that Barack Obama can fulfill his incredible promise, that like FDR, he agrees with us, he wants to do it, but it is up to us to Make Him Do It. We can sit here on DK and FDL and other like-minded blogs and bitch about how we shouldn't have to make him do it, but it is what it is and our bitching and longing for a President Bartlett or Feingold can't change that. Our anger and frustration can however be channeled into productive uses, such as reelecting Obama and ensuring that as many genuinely progressive Congresspeople as possible are in office from Day 1 of Obama's second term. Also into recalling as many union-busting Walkerites as we can in Wisconsin and across this great land. It may not be quite the Change We Believed In, but it's a start.
And So It Begins, the long, grueling, hellish-but-also-strangely-rewarding marathon that will determine the next occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.... Wait, this just in:
House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wisconsin, will unveil a highly anticipated 2012 Republican budget next week that proposes dramatic changes to political lightning rods: entitlements.
The plan, to be released Tuesday, calls for a controversial overhaul of Medicare, the health care program for seniors, and imposes deep cuts in Medicaid, which provides health benefits to low-income Americans, according to House Republican sources with knowledge of the proposal.
Starting 10 years from now, in 2021, Americans would no longer enroll in the Medicare program, but instead receive vouchers for private insurance, according to the GOP sources... On Medicaid, Ryan's plan calls for deep cuts, as much as $1 trillion. The program would also fundamentally change -- the federal share of the Medicaid system would become block grants to the states.
And So It Ends, on the same day it began. That's it folks, it's over. The fat lady has sung. As of April 4, 2011, we can now officially project that Barack Obama will be reelected in November 2012 (assuming the world doesn't end this May, of course). Analysts say the near certain projected victory was due to numerous factors, but the GOP assault on Medicare and Medicaid played a crucial role in reducing support for the Republican party among seniors, independents, moderate Republicans, youth, and other Sane-ish Americans.
Like the addict that just can't help himself, the Party of Goldwater is once again grasping the fourth rail of American politics (entitlement reform) with both hands. The party that is reflexively anti-government is on a collision course with a general public which is VERY attached to "Big Government Entitlement programs." I wonder how long we'll have to wait for Tea Baggers to start picketing Ryan's events yelling "keep your government hands off my Medicare"?
But wait, there's more!
The budget would also cut the corporate tax rate, but at the same time do away with tax loopholes for corporations.
Ryan's plan also provides for a permanent extension of all the Bush-era tax cuts, which under a compromise with President Barack Obama were extended last year through 2012.
Stick a fork in em, folks! The GOP is done! Abolishing Medicare and severely slashing Medicaid were already destined to elicit howls of protest from millions of middle-class Americans. But to couple cuts to seniors and the poor with massive tax breaks for Fortune 500 companies and the top 1% of Americans should form the perfect storm. Any halfway-competent Democrat would take that juxtaposition and repeat it ad nauseum all the way to Election Day.
Whenever Republicans finally enter the presidential race, they should be forced to answer whether they support Paul Ryan's plan (and go down to defeat in the general) or oppose it (and go down to defeat in the GOP primary). Obama might be the master of 11-dimensional chess, but the simplest explanation here is that the Republicans once again just checkmated themselves. It's all over but the campaigning. Once more unto the breach, dear friends...
Updated by unrepentantnewdealer at Mon Apr 04, 2011 at 01:01 PM PDT
I just came across Blue Ardvark's post making essentially the same point (Obama's got this shit on lock), albeit using an entirely different (and probably more scientific) argument. It's definitely worth a read.