Egypt continues to be an important place to watch in the mosaic of political upheavals that are sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa. It managed to navigate through a mass movement that resulted in the removal of a long standing autocratic regime to a transitional political structure with a fairly low level of violence. That stands in stark contrast to its neighbor Libya that is locked in a bloody civil war with foreign military intervention.
While quieter, Egypt's present circumstances are by no means trouble free. Strikes over wages and working conditions have become wide spread with the decline in political repression and the economy has been significantly impacted. The senior military figures who are in control of the government also control major sectors of the economy. They have proposed the adoption of new measures which would prohibit strikes and demonstrations.
As a first step in the transition to a new system of government the military council held a national referendum which partially amended the existing constitution. It passed by a very substantial majority. The campaign leading up to the election presented an interesting alliance of political forces. The referendum was supported by the remnants of Mubarak's NDP party and the Muslim Brotherhood. For these two groups that had been traditional antagonists to find themselves on the same side of the political blanket was decidedly ironic. It was opposed by a variety of groups made up of the younger secularly oriented activists who were credited with being the main organizing force the revolutionary movement. They were afraid that rushing the process leading to new elections would confer an advantage on the two older more established organizations.
It now appears that the political deck is being reshuffled. New demonstrations are planned for this Friday to oppose the new prohibitions on strikes and demonstrations. The Muslim Brotherhood is once again trimming it sails.
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood to Rejoin Protests
After two months of working closely with Egypt's new military rulers, the country's most powerful Islamist group said it will join demonstrations this Friday—a move that could reinvigorate a revolutionary movement damped since protesters ousted the country's president in February.
Muslim Brotherhood members have said the group will throw its official weight behind demonstrations against the country's provisional military leadership, which many youth protest leaders complain has been too slow to purge and prosecute lingering elements of the former regime.
In January when the revolutionary movement was gathering force the Muslim Brotherhood held back from active participation in it. As it began to look more and more like a winning movement they decided to climb on the bandwagon. Their participation has caused some people to raise concerns about the prospects of the Egyptian revolution turning into an Islamist revolution. There are other smaller Islamic parties that are considerably more radical than they are. The Brotherhood does appear to have significant political support, particularly outside of urban areas.
Meanwhile other revolutionary groups are attempting to organize a more coherent political coalition.
Egypt’s revolution groups to unite to back candidates
A meeting on Tuesday between 23 new political groups may not only be a beginning of another revolution coalition but also their answer to Egypt’s very uni-dimensional political scene: with political weight still only in the hands of groups who had power before Egypt’s 25 January revolution, an assembly of many of the current movements hoping for the prospect of a coalition may be just what the forces of change need to influence the future political map of Egypt.
The linked article provides a brief description of these groups.
There was wide spread support for getting rid of Mubarak and his immediate associates. Beyond that there is not a guarantee of national consensus. There is an urban movement that appears to be oriented toward western political and economic structures to some extent. The rural areas seem to have a more traditional orientation. It is probably not wise to try to read to much into the vote on the constitutional referendum in terms of trying to position the country on this political continuum. It is plausible that the large vote in favor may have been expressing a desire for stability. The upcoming parliamentary elections will be more significant. Should they follow a more conservative course, that will raise serious questions about what happens next. Will the youthful revolutionaries be willing to follow an evolutionary path or will they attempt to regain control of the revolution by more aggressive means?