So says the Washington Post:
Obama will not blaze a fresh path when he delivers a much-anticipated speech Wednesday afternoon at George Washington University. Instead, he is expected to offer support for the commission’s work and a related effort underway in the Senate to develop a strategy for curbing borrowing. Obama will frame the approach as a responsible alternative to the 2012 plan unveiled last week by House Republicans, according to people briefed by the White House.
It's unclear exactly what "offer[s) support" means. (See updates). If he backs S-B (BS?), he will be supporting cuts in Social Security. If I get a chance this afternoon, I'm going to dig into Simpson-Bowles and report back with what I find. For now, just a few things:
- Spending cuts outpace revenue increases 3 to 1.
- It assumes the implementation of the ACA and accelerates the bill's cost-saving measures.
- It calls for cuts in both Social Security and Medicare. Here is what it suggests for Medicare:
$400 Billion in Medicare and Medicaid cuts beyond those in the ACA over the next 10 years (see pg. 37-40). Some of these offset other spending suggested by the Commission. I think it is a ~$200 Billion net cut in Medicare and Medicaid over 10 years over current law (but complicated to determine exactly until it is put into legislative form).
As for Social Security:
The report (PDF) last December by the White House-appointed commission -- co-chaired by former Republican Sen. Alan Simpson (WY) and former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles -- proposed three major changes to Social Security, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: Increasing the retirement age in accordance with average life span, changing the benefit formula to cut payouts, and reducing cost-of-living adjustments based on inflation.
There are some good recommendations in Simpson-Bowles, like cuts in military spending, but chances are, of course, that they won't survive while the regressive cuts will.
Updated by david mizner at Tue Apr 12, 2011 at 09:44 AM PDT
I wanted to point out that the Washington Post's report notwithstanding, the President might well offer praise for Bowles-Simpson and the corresponding work of the Gang of 6 without endorsing it. I have trouble believing that Obama would go on record wanting to cut Social Security before the Republicans do, and in any case, a tentative approach would be more his style. We'll find out tomorrow.
UPDATE: I asked for Bruce Webb's take, which is somewhat encouraging.
Don't trust Lori Montgomery on anything related to Social Security. If you see her by-line in the WaPo it means you are just getting AEI/Hassett spin. My take is that Ezra got pwned here and swallowed Lori's hook whole.
Word dribbling out is that Obama is likely to just repeat his campaign proposal and lift the cap, though I wouldn't be surprised to see some damaging changes in the benefit formulas.
But I don"t expect it to be pure Bowles-Simpson.