The 41 Canadian Election is only two weeks from now and some patterns are starting to emerge.
First, health care is becoming the number one issue, while talk of coalitions has now completely disappeared. There are signs the Green vote is being squeezed all over, which is not helped by the total absence of the environment as an election issue.
There are a number of youth mobs being organized, intending to show that young people are willing to make their voices heard. Voting by students is harder this time round than usual as the three days of advance polling are on Easter weekend (by law 10, 9 and 7 days before election day.)
The Conservative campaign has stalled and are now around 36-37%, very slightly down from last time. Their supporters are the most dedicated, but they have little cross-over appeal -- their candidates are skirting local debates. They are still hampered by the occasional fiasco, in particular a case of ballot box theft and a candidate in Toronto who asked for "ethnic costumes". Stephen Harper is now asking for a majority not just because of the economy, but also in the name of national unity (more below).
The Liberal campaign has also stalled at about 27%, and they did not get the bounce from the debates they were hoping for. They have begun calling for tactical voting and have bought out former PMs Martin and Chrétien. They have also released the most negative ads of the campaign so far.
The NDP has rebounded somewhat, as it usually does after the debates, and is somewhere between 18 and 25%. Their challenge is now to ensure the support gets into the ballot box -- NDP supporters are the most likely to change their minds. They no longer have to worry about a significant loss of seats, though.
More specifically, this means:
In Atlantic Canada the race is tight. The NDP is a clear third but that should not affect their four seats which are safe. The Conservatives will have a good bounce in Newfoundland as the factors that were present in 2008 no longer exist, but it might conceal difficulties in PEI, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. They put in a lot of well-known candidates to try to turn things in their favour. In terms of proportions, this is probably their most important region.
The Conservatives appear to have a slight lead in Ontario which suggests similar results to last time for all three parties. The same is true in the Prairies, although there are suggestions the Liberals are doing relatively well in Winnipeg and the NDP the same in Edmonton.
The race in B.C. is unpredictable, although there seems to be a swing away from the Conservatives to the NDP. The NDP was embroiled in a provincial leadership race up until yesterday. The Liberals are slightly higher here than last time, which represented rock-bottom.
In Québec, however, things are rather complicated. Everyone is down from last time except the NDP, which is up very significantly, to nearly a quarter of voter intentions. This has been assisted by a gloomy political climate within the province, their status as outsiders, and relatively friendly media treatment. This does not mean a quarter of the seats -- in fact it might mean as few as two, depending on how the vote spreads out. There are some signs they're doing rather better around Montréal.
For the Conservatives, they have given up for all intents and purposes here. They intended to pit Montréal against the régions, by providing goodies and voices in government to them. The public has definitely detected this, and with the NDP increase in Montréal it has even backfired -- Montréal tends to get short shrift in election campaigns as it traditionally has few seats in play. 17% would give them anything from 5 to 15 seats depending on vote distribution and in particular that of the Bloc (4 gains maximum). They seem disinterested, and Harper was for all intents and purposes out of the French leader's debate. The feeling is mutual -- a measurement of watcher's reactions done for La Presse showed 'irritation' as what was most felt when he spoke.
The Liberals' situation is unclear; they could still gain as many as 6 seats and not lose any. What they do have seems safe. Their French ads implicitly call for tactical voting.
The Bloc campaign is still weak and somnambular. while the Conservative and Liberal support is down 3-4 points, theirs is down anywhere from 3 to 11 points. They won't drop below 27%, yet even then could win a majority of the seats in the province. Questions about their very existence have reappeared unlike last time. They are worried by the NDP rise and have actually called for tactical voting, too. They need to channel the energy from their provincial cousin's PQ convention, and hope that their hard-core wing's motions (extending Bill 101 to CEGEPs and banning ALL English on signs) do not impact them.