This is my first update to the Senate diaries.
I know it's only April, 2011, but it's time to start looking to 2012. Many House races are in flux due to redistricting, but the Senate doesn't have that problem. So I'm going to start looking at Senate races.
There are races in 33 states, 10 are currently R, 21 are D, 2 are I (CT and VT, with VT really more D than D):
AZ, CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IN, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OH, PA, RI, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, and WY
Here is my very early and based on not much view:
4 Safe R: MS, TX, UT, WY
5 Likely R AZ, IN. ME, MA, TN,
1 R in danger NV
5 D in danger: MO, MT, NE, ND, VA, WV
8 Likely D FL, HI, MI, NM, OH, PA, WA, WI
6 Safe D CA, CT (was I), DE, MD, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VT (I)
Which isn't good. But it is early, and I am being kind of pessimistic.
More below the fold
For each race I have the following
State:
State Demographics: source = census via Almanac of American Politics
% White
% Black
% Asian
% Other race
% Latino
Median income
% below poverty
State Politics: source for presidential elections: Dave Leip's site: for 2008, Almanac of American Politics for earlier
Obama vs. McCain these are given as the Democratic edge (D % - R%)
Bush vs. Kerry
Bush vs. Gore
Incumbent:
VoteView rank (1 = most liberal, 107 = most conservative; there are more than 100 because Obama is listed and some states had replacements and Specter is listed as both D and
R)
Progressive Punch rating: source (I give rating on crucial votes, lifetime).
First elected
2006 result
COH source (these numbers are old .... I need a more recent source. The FEC doesn't seem to have this organized yet)
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes:
The stuff about the races and the candidate lists and so on are mostly speculation, with some info from Wikipedia. I have started including possible candidates based on diaries by David Nir and Steve Singiser and any others I see. Polling data is starting to come in as well.
State: Arizona
State Demographics:
% White 63.5
% Black 2.9
% Asian 1.7
% Other race 4.7
% Latino 25.3
Median income $40,558
% below poverty 13.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -8
Bush vs. Kerry: -11
Bush vs. Gore -6
Incumbent: Jon Kyl (R) retiring
VoteView rank 105
Progressive Punch rating 2.42
First elected 1994
2006 result 53-43 over Jim Pederson
COH N/A
Race:
Democrats: Ed Pastor
Republicans: Jeff Flake; Trent Frank is apparently out
Poll results
Notes: Arizona, of late, has been home of some of the craziest politicians in America. Kyl, who is retiring, was arguable the most conservative senator. Gov. Brewer is bat-shit crazy, e.g. refusing to grant clemency to people whom the DA says should be released and supporting racist policies on a regular basis. It's tempting to just write this off. Yet .... Obama lost by only 8 points, and to a native son. Raul Grijalva, one of the most liberal people in the House, wins. And the two Republicans who have announced are both RWNJs (per VoteView, Flake is the MOST conservative person in the House and Franks is very close), while Pastor is a relatively moderate Democrat. Then there's the very faint possibility that Gabby Giffords could recover enough to run; and, even if she only runs for her House seat, that's gotta be a great story. Who knows? It's possible.
State: California
State Demographics:
% White: 46.7
% Black 6.4
% Asian 10.8
% Other race 3.7
% Latino 32.4
Median income $47,493
% below poverty 14.2
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +24
Bush vs. Kerry +10
Bush vs. Gore +11
Incumbent: Diane Feinstein (D)
VoteView rank 46
Progressive Punch rating 78.9
First elected 1992
2006 result 59-35 over Dick Mountjoy
COH $3.6 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: This should be easy.
State: Connecticut
State Demographics:
% White 77.5
% Black 8.7
% Asian 2.4
% Other race 3.4
% Latino 9.4
Median income $53,935
% below poverty 7.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +23
Bush vs. Kerry +10
Bush vs. Gore +18
Incumbent: Joseph Lieberman (I) retiring
VoteView rank 54
Progressive Punch rating 70.2
First elected 1988
2006 result 50-40 (D)-10 (R) over Lamont and Schlesinger
COH N/A
Race:
Democrats: Chris Murphy, Susan Bysiewicz, probably others
Republicans: possibly Mark Boughton, Michael Fedele, Scott Franz, Linda McMahon
Poll results in a 3/21 poll, Murphy beat all the above Republicans handily, Bysiewicz beat them all, by not quite as much
Notes: Go Joe go! With you out of the way, there's no reason CT can't elect a real Democrat. Murphy is rather moderate, but CT-05, his district, is the most Republican in the state.
State: Delaware
State Demographics:
% White 72.5
% Black 18.9
% Asian 2.1
% Other race 1.7
% Latino 4.8
Median income $47.381
% below poverty 9.2
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +15
Bush vs. Kerry +7
Bush vs. Gore +13
Incumbent: Tom Carper (D)
VoteView rank 61
Progressive Punch rating 70.4
First elected 2000
2006 result 70-29 over Jan Ting
COH: $936K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: This should be easy.
State: Florida
State Demographics:
% White 65.4
% Black 14.2
% Asian 1.6
% Other race 2.0
% Latino 16.8
Median income $38,819
% below poverty 12.5
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +3
Bush vs. Kerry -5
Bush vs. Gore famously 0
Incumbent: Nelson (D)
VoteView rank 60
Progressive Punch rating 77.6
First elected 2000
2006 result 60-38 over Katherine Harris
COH $2.7 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Mike McAlister, Mike Haridopolos (who seems to have trouble filling out his taxes), NOT Connie Mack; probably George LeMieux; maybe Adam Hasner;
Poll results: A poll at the end of March has Nelson comfortably ahead of a a bunch of possible challengers; another poll in April is also positive, as is one in midApril.
Notes: Nelson seemed vulnerable but his numbers so far are quite good.
State: Hawaii
State Demographics:
% White 22.9
% Black 1.7
% Asian 40.8
% Other race 27.5
% Latino 7.2
Median income $49,820
% below poverty 10.7
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +45
Bush vs. Kerry +9
Bush vs. Gore +19
Incumbent: Daniel Akaka (D) retiring
VoteView rank 14
Progressive Punch rating 89.4
First elected (appointed) 1990
2006 result 61-37 over Cynthia Thielen
COH N/A
Race:
Democrats: Mazie Hirono and Colleen Hanabusa are considering it. Ed Case is running.
Republicans: Possibly Charles Djou, possibly Linda Lingle (Djou is waiting for Lingle to decide)
Poll results
Notes: This OUGHT to be easy, especially with Obama running and presumably getting a big turnout.
State: Indiana
State Demographics:
% White 85.8
% Black 8.3
% Asian 1.0
% Other race 1.3
% Latino 3.5
Median income $41,567
% below poverty 9.5
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +1
Bush vs. Kerry -21
Bush vs. Gore -16
Incumbent: Richard Lugar (R)
VoteView rank 73
Progressive Punch rating 7.2
First elected 1976
2006 result 87-13 over Steve Osborne of the libertarian party
COH $2.3 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Probably Joe Donnelly
Poll results
Notes: Lugar is likely to draw a Teahadist primary opponent. One possibility is George Mourdock, another is Chris Chocola. And that is very good news. Indiana is not a right wing state. For a long time its other senator was a very moderate Democrat (Bayh). And the union stuff in Wisconsin has to play well here.
State: Maine
State Demographics:
% White 96.5
% Black 0.5
% Asian 0.7
% Other race 1.5
% Latino 0.7
Median income $37,240
% below poverty 10.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +17
Bush vs. Kerry +10
Bush vs. Gore +5
Incumbent: Snowe (R)
VoteView rank 66
Progressive Punch rating 29.6
First elected 1994
2006 result 74-24 over Jean Bright
COH $1.1 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Republican primary: Scott D'Amboise, Andrew Ian Dodge
Poll results
Notes: It's all about Olympia and the Teahadists. Will there be a serious RWNJ challenge (the two so far are little known)? Snowe is likely to lose in the primary. But would she switch to independent? Or even Democratic? Or would she stay with her party? The only way Dems win this, I think, is if Snowe runs as a D, or runs as an R and loses. In either of those cases, this is a likely pickup.
State: Maryland
State Demographics:
% White 62.1
% Black 27.7
% Asian 4.0
% Other race 2.1
% Latino 4.3
Median income $52,868
% below poverty 8.5
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +25
Bush vs. Kerry +13
Bush vs. Gore +17
Incumbent: Ben Cardin (D)
VoteView rank 30
Progressive Punch rating 93.6
First elected 2006
2006 result 54-44 over Michael Steele
COH $380 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Dean Ahmad, Charles Lollar, Michael Steele, Eric Wargotz
Poll results
Notes: This should be easy.
State: Massachusetts
State Demographics:
% White 81.9
% Black 5.0
% Asian 3.7
% Other race 2.6
% Latino 6.8
Median income $50,502
% below poverty 9.3
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +26
Bush vs. Kerry +25
Bush vs. Gore +27
Incumbent: Scott Brown (R)
VoteView rank 68
Progressive Punch rating 11.5
First elected 2010 (replacing Kennedy)
2006 result 2010: - 52- 47 over Martha Coakley
COH $6.0 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor): Possibly Gerry Kavanaugh
Poll results: A poll in late March/early April showed Brown with very high popularity (73%)
Notes: Brown won on a fluke. In one of the best Republican years, and facing a monumentally incompetent campaign by Coakley. But he is popular now, and has a lot of cash. The key will be getting a good Democrat to run. It's not clear who will run at this point. Brown has called the Republican budget cuts irresponsible.
State: Michigan
State Demographics:
% White 78.6
% Black 14.1
% Asian 1.8
% Other race 2.2
% Latino 3.3
Median income $44,667
% below poverty 10.5
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +16
Bush vs. Kerry +3
Bush vs. Gore +5
Incumbent: Debbie Stabenow (D)
VoteView rank 32
Progressive Punch rating 87.7
First elected 2000
2006 result 57-41 over Mike Bouchard
COH $1.4 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Chad Dewey, Scotty Boman, Terry Lynn Land, Saul Anuzis
Poll results: PPP poll in mid March shows Stabenow with leads of 10 to 20 points over a variety of opps. A late March poll of the Repub. primary showed Hoekstra with clear lead, but he has announced that he will not run.
Notes:
State: Minnesota
State Demographics:
% White 88.2
% Black 3.4
% Asian 2.9
% Other race 2.6
% Latino 2.9
Median income $47,111
% below poverty 7.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +10
Bush vs. Kerry +3
Bush vs. Gore +2
Incumbent: Amy Klobuchar (D)
VoteView rank 48
Progressive Punch rating 82.1
First elected 2006
2006 result 58-38 over Mark Kennedy
COH $1.3 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor): Possibly Dan Severson
Poll results
Notes: This should be easy. Klobuchar is quite popular, Minnesota is increasingly Democratic. They elected Franken, who is to the left of Klobuchar.
State: Mississippi
State Demographics:
% White 60.7
% Black 36.2
% Asian 0.6
% Other race 1.0
% Latino 1.4
Median income $31,330
% below poverty 19.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -13
Bush vs. Kerry -19
Bush vs. Gore -17
Incumbent: Roger Wicker (R)
VoteView rank 83
Progressive Punch rating 1.9
First elected (appointed in 2007 to replace Trent Lott)
2006 result NA
COH $402 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: Nothing to see here
State: Missouri
State Demographics:
% White 83.8
% Black 11.2
% Asian 1.1
% Other race 1.9
% Latino 2.1
Median income $37,934
% below poverty 11.7
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -0
Bush vs. Kerry -7
Bush vs. Gore -3
Incumbent: Claire McCaskill (D)
VoteView rank 58
Progressive Punch rating 71.0
First elected 2006
2006 result 50-47 over Jim Talent
COH $793 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Sarah Steelman, Ed Martin, probably Todd Akin, possibly Blaine Luetkemeyer, maybe John Brunner.
Poll results: A poll showed McCaskill beating Steelman by only 1%
Notes: McCaskill is vulnerable.
State: Montana
State Demographics:
% White 89.5
% Black 0.3
% Asian 0.5
% Other race 7.6
% Latino 2.0
Median income $33,024
% below poverty 14.6
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -2
Bush vs. Kerry -20
Bush vs. Gore -25
Incumbent: Jon Tester (D)
VoteView rank 43
Progressive Punch rating 74.8
First elected 2006
2006 result 49-48 over Conrad Burns
COH $501 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Steve Daines has announced, Denny Rehberg will probably run
Poll results: A 3/20 poll has Tester up by 1 over Rehberg
Notes: Tester is vulnerable
State: Nebraska
State Demographics:
% White 87.3
% Black 3.9
% Asian 1.3
% Other race 1.9
% Latino 5.5
Median income $39,250
% below poverty 9.7
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -15
Bush vs. Kerry -33
Bush vs. Gore -29
Incumbent: Ben Nelson (D)
VoteView rank 64
Progressive Punch rating 44.0
First elected 2000
2006 result 64-36 over Pete Ricketts
COH $1.2 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Jon Bruning
Poll results
Notes:
State: Nevada
State Demographics:
% White 65.2
% Black 6.6
% Asian 4.4
% Other race 4.1
% Latino 19.7
Median income $44,581
% below poverty 10.5
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +12
Bush vs. Kerry -2
Bush vs. Gore -4
Incumbent: John Ensign (R) resigned
VoteView rank 101
Progressive Punch rating 5.3
First elected 2000
2006 result 55-41 over Jack Carter
COH N/A
Race:
Democrats: Shelley Berkley
Republicans: Probably Dean Heller
Poll results: A partisan poll in late March showed Berkley beating Heller 42-38.
Notes:
State: New Jersey
State Demographics:
% White 66.0
% Black 13.0
% Asian 5.7
% Other race 1.9
% Latino 13.3
Median income $55,146
% below poverty 8.5
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +15
Bush vs. Kerry +7
Bush vs. Gore +16
Incumbent: Robert Menendez (D)
VoteView rank 20
Progressive Punch rating 92.9
First elected (appointed 2006)
2006 result 53-44 over Tom Kean
COH $2.0 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: This should be easy.
State: New Mexico
State Demographics:
% White 44.7
% Black 1.7
% Asian 1.0
% Other race 10.6
% Latino 42.1
Median income $34,133
% below poverty 18.4
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +15
Bush vs. Kerry +1
Bush vs. Gore +0
Incumbent: Jeff Bingaman (D) retiring
VoteView rank 45
Progressive Punch rating 77.5
First elected 1982
2006 result 71-29 over Allen McCulloch
COH N/A
Race:
Democrats:
Republicans: Maybe Lt. Gov. John Sanchez
Poll results
Notes:
State: New York
State Demographics:
% White 62.0
% Black 14.8
% Asian 5.5
% Other race 2.7
% Latino 15.1
Median income $43,393
% below poverty 14.6
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +27
Bush vs. Kerry +18
Bush vs. Gore +25
Incumbent: Gillibrand (D)
VoteView rank 39
Progressive Punch rating 93.1
First elected (appointed 2009)
2010 result - 62-36 over Joe Dioguardia
COH N/A from that source
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Maybe Betsy McGaughey
Poll results
Notes: Gillibrand has been a huge and positive surprise. She should cruise.
State: North Dakota
State Demographics:
% White 91.7
% Black 0.6
% Asian 4.8
% Other race 5.8
% Latino 1.2
Median income $34,604
% below poverty 11.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -9
Bush vs. Kerry -28
Bush vs. Gore -28
Incumbent: Kent Conrad (D) retiring
VoteView rank 37
Progressive Punch rating 74.2
First elected 1986
2006 result 69-30 over Dwight Grothberg
COH N/A
Race:
Democrats:
Republicans:
Poll results
Notes:
State: Ohio
State Demographics:
% White 84.0
% Black 11.4
% Asian 1.2
% Other race 1.5
% Latino 1.9
Median income $40.956
% below poverty 10.6
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +5
Bush vs. Kerry -2
Bush vs. Gore -4
Incumbent: Sherrod Brown (D)
VoteView rank 11
Progressive Punch rating 96.8
First elected 2006
2006 result 56-44 over Mike DeWine
COH $1.4 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) A lot of possibilities named in this poll. Pat Tibieri is not running. Josh Mandel is.
Poll results: In late March, Brown "generic R" 45-29.
Notes:
State: Pennsylvania
State Demographics:
% White 84.1
% Black 9.8
% Asian 1.8
% Other race 2.8
% Latino 3.2
Median income $40,106
% below poverty 11.0
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +10
Bush vs. Kerry +3
Bush vs. Gore +5
Incumbent: Robert Casey (D)
VoteView rank 29
Progressive Punch rating 86.7
First elected 2006
2006 result 59-41 over Rick Santorum
COH $876 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Mike Scaringi, possibly Ed Stack, Sam Rohrer
Poll results: A mid April poll shows Casey leading all contenders easily.
Notes:
State: Rhode Island
State Demographics:
% White 81.9
% Black 4.0
% Asian 2.2
% Other race 3.2
% Latino 8.7
Median income $42,090
% below poverty 11.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +28
Bush vs. Kerry +20
Bush vs. Gore +29
Incumbent: Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
VoteView rank 8
Progressive Punch rating 95.9
First elected 2006
2006 result 54-46 over Lincoln Chafee
COH $589 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Barry Hinckley
Poll results
Notes: This should be easy. Whitehouse beat one of the most popular politicians in RI, and he won't have any trouble with whoever the Repubs throw up.
State: Tennessee
State Demographics:
% White 79.2
% Black 16.3
% Asian 1.0
% Other race 1.3
% Latino 2.2
Median income $36,380
% below poverty 13.5
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -15
Bush vs. Kerry -14
Bush vs. Gore -4
Incumbent: Bob Corker (R)
VoteView rank 80
Progressive Punch rating 2.3
First elected 2006
2006 result 51-48 over Harold Ford
COH $786 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: Although I don't know of any challengers, this looks like a possible D pickup.
State: Texas
State Demographics:
% White 52.4
% Black 11.3
% Asian 2.7
% Other race 1.6
% Latino 32.0
Median income $39,927
% below poverty 15.4
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -12
Bush vs. Kerry -23
Bush vs. Gore -21
Incumbent: Kay Hutchison (R) retiring
VoteView rank 79
Progressive Punch rating 3.8
First elected 1993
2006 result 62-36 over Barbara Radnofsky
COH N/A
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: Nothing to see here.
State: Utah
State Demographics:
% White 85.3
% Black 0.7
% Asian 1.6
% Other race 3.4
% Latino 9.0
Median income $45,726
% below poverty 9.4
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -28
Bush vs. Kerry -46
Bush vs. Gore -41
Incumbent: Orrin Hatch (R)
VoteView rank 82
Progressive Punch rating 3.2
First elected 1976
2006 result 63-31 over Pete Ashdown
COH $2.3 million
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Hatch will draw some Republican challengers
Poll results
Notes: This is Utah, and any Republican is going to be a strong favorite
State: Vermont
State Demographics:
% White 96.2
% Black 0.5
% Asian 0.8
% Other race 1.6
% Latino 0.9
Median income $40,856
% below poverty 9.4
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +37
Bush vs. Kerry +20
Bush vs. Gore +10
Incumbent: Bernie Sanders (I)
VoteView rank 6
Progressive Punch rating 95.6
First elected 2006
2006 result 65-32 over Richard Tarrant
COH $141 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: This should be easy
State: Virginia
State Demographics:
% White 70.2
% Black 19.4
% Asian 3.7
% Other race 2.1
% Latino 4.7
Median income $46,667
% below poverty 9.6
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +6
Bush vs. Kerry -11
Bush vs. Gore -8
Incumbent: Jim Webb (D) retiring
VoteView rank 57
Progressive Punch rating 75.7
First elected 2006
2006 result 50-49 over George Allen
COH N/A
Race:
Democrats: Tim Kaine is in. Maybe Bobby Scott
Republicans: George Allen, possibly Tim Donner
Poll results
Notes: This looks wide open to me.
State: Washington
State Demographics:
% White 78.9
% Black 3.1
% Asian 5.4
% Other race 5.0
% Latino 7.5
Median income $45,776
% below poverty 10.6
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +17
Bush vs. Kerry +7
Bush vs. Gore +5
Incumbent: Maria Cantwell (D)
VoteView rank 38
Progressive Punch rating 85.2
First elected 2000
2006 result 57-40 over Mike McGavick
COH $316 K (self funded)
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results: Some polls last summer showed Cantwell leading potential opponents by about 5.
Notes:
State: West Virginia
State Demographics:
% White 94.6
% Black 3.1
% Asian 0.5
% Other race 1.1
% Latino 0.7
Median income $29,696
% below poverty 17.9
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -13
Bush vs. Kerry -13
Bush vs. Gore -6
Incumbent: Manchin (D)
VoteView rank 59
Progressive Punch rating 60.0
First elected (appointed 2010)
2006 result 2010 54-43 over John Raese
COH N/A from that source
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes:
State: Wisconsin
State Demographics:
% White 87.3
% Black 5.6
% Asian 1.6
% Other race 1.9
% Latino 3.6
Median income $43,791
% below poverty 8.7
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain +14
Bush vs. Kerry +1
Bush vs. Gore +0
Incumbent: Herb Kohl (D) May retire
VoteView rank 44
Progressive Punch rating 78.5
First elected 1988
2006 result 67-29 over Robert Lorge
COH $15 K (self funds)
Race:
Challenger (and rumor) Mark Neumann is considering a run.
Poll results
Notes: Kohl should be OK if he runs.
State: Wyoming
State Demographics:
% White 88.9
% Black 0.7
% Asian 0.5
% Other race 3.5
% Latino 6.4
Median income $37,892
% below poverty 11.4
State Politics:
Obama vs. McCain -32
Bush vs. Kerry -40
Bush vs. Gore -41
Incumbent: John Barrasso (R)
VoteView rank 104
Progressive Punch rating 1.1
First elected appointed 2007
2006 result
COH $555 K
Race:
Challenger (and rumor)
Poll results
Notes: