Tonight we got more than Bin Laden. We got an enormous intel windfall. This means the end of Al Qaeda. No exaggeration.
Update I was right: http://www.politico.com/...
Quote: The assault force of Navy SEALs snatched a trove of computer drives and disks during their weekend raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound, yielding what a U.S. official called “the mother lode of intelligence.” More below.
According to news reports, the operation that killed Bin Laden included US Special Forces encircling his compound, and elite units (Delta, Seals) going into the compound and getting him.
Here are a few other things they would have gotten at the same time:
Prisoners who can be interrogated. Obama knows that torture doesn't work, and these will be the highest-value prisoners we have captured to date. They will almost certainly be handled using the tried and true smart interrogation methods that have worked even against the Nazis.
Maps and papers. Plenty of written material to read, all of it in cleartext, ready to hand directly to military linguists for immediate translation.
Computers with gigabytes of tasty goodies on their hard drives. Probably a good bit of it encrypted, but not for long. Those hard drives and other digital media will be rushed to NSA in Fort Meade, where everything that has ever been written to them will be read: including anything that was erased or overwritten by new material.
Most importantly: Crypto keys. Encryption/decryption key pairs. These will enable decryption of a decade or more's worth of Al Qaeda intercepts. As a result, we will have solid intel on Al Qaeda's operations to date, their command & control structure, all their franchised affiliates around the globe, and all of their plans. The importance of this can't be overstated: those crypto keys are the proverbial keys to the kingdom.
Yes, it's true that AQ is decentralized, its local branches have autonomy, and all that. But the central coordination is what gives them the capacity to carry out truly significant attacks. Any idiot can make a bomb, and plenty of idiots have tried and been caught. It takes more than a handful of locals to plan and undertake a major attack. That capability has now been shattered.
This operation sends another message:
The US was able to place HUMINT (human intelligence) operatives right into the midst of Bin Laden's inner circle. Whether by inserting them from the outside, or by recruiting them from the inside, the result was the same. Bin Laden's supremely paranoid and security-conscious inner circle was ultimately and fatally compromised.
The clear message is: you can run but you can't hide. Terrorist groups and cells will now be on paranoia overdrive, conducting internal witch hunts to try to figure out if/who among them is actually working for the CIA.
What happens next:
The AQ compound will be gone over with the thoroughness of an archaeological dig, until everything that might bear any information has been extracted and removed. Most of it will be packed up (much of it in large plastic trash bags) and flown to the US. Probably some of it is here already, and much more will follow just as fast as the transport planes can fly it over here.
A lot of people will be working double shifts at CIA, NSA, DIA, and possibly NRO and a few TLAs you've never heard of before.
They will piece together a complete and detailed picture of AQ, its leadership structure, its command/control/communications structure, its plans, affiliates, subsidiaries, and supporters.
Then one by one, AQ cells will be driven to ground and taken out.
The end of Bin Laden is also the beginning of the end of Al Qaeda.
There will be plenty more news in the months to come.
Updated by G2geek at Mon May 02, 2011 at 05:46 AM PDT
UPDATE: NY Times reports that there were military and intelligence personnel on the mission, there were four helicopters (of which one was destroyed though with no US casualties), and the firefight was over in 40 minutes. You can be quite sure that the intelligence personnel did the clean-sweep of the property after the fighting was over. NY Times also reports that there were prisoners taken. So for anyone who thinks my assessment is nonsense: keep reading the news, you'll see.
Update Monday 02 May at 7:25PM
I was right. The only thing I missed were the thumb drives. Quoting Politico below:
--- quote ---
http://www.politico.com/...
The assault force of Navy SEALs snatched a trove of computer drives and disks during their weekend raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound, yielding what a U.S. official called “the mother lode of intelligence.”
The special operations forces grabbed personal computers, thumb drives and electronic equipment during the lightning raid that killed bin Laden, officials told POLITICO.
“They cleaned it out,” one official said. “Can you imagine what’s on Osama bin Laden’s hard drive?”
--- end quote ---