What a concept: a public policy professor and his class at Hamilton College actually went back and checked 472 predictions by members of the chattering class to see how they turned out.
The results are in, and top dog in the prediction game is—drum roll, please—Paul Krugman.
More than half of the sages they studied made predictions that were no more reliable than a coin flip, including such luminaries as Tom Friedman and Andrea Mitchell.
Perhaps even more interesting, the results showed that liberal pundits have a much better track record than conservatives. The top five were all Democratic/liberal.
Draw your own conclusions. (I can hardly wait to see how the wingnuts try to spin this one.)