Following news that the U.S. military has killed Osama bin Laden, it is extremely likely that President Obama will receive a bump in his job approval ratings. During the era of public opinion surveys, Presidents have received an average bump of 13% for 22 weeks after similar events.
Looking at recent trends, President Obama was definitely in need of a bump. Here's the Pollster.com trendline on President Obama's job approval rating over the last eighteen months:
President Obama's job approval, November 1, 2009 to current, excluding Zogby Internet and Rasmussen polls
After a brief upward swing in his job approval in December and January, President Obama's approval rating had been trending downward. Likely factors include rising gas prices, increased fears over inflation, other continued economic woes, and general dislike of the process around D.C. spending fights. President Obama really needed something to change this trend, and it is likely this achievement will provide exactly what he needed.
To state the obvious, the forthcoming approval spike will not be a permanent improvement for President Obama. Two of the worst elections for Democrats in history came right after the country emerged victorious from World Wars under Democratic Presidents, in 1920 and 1946. George Bush Sr. lost re-election big despite sky-high approval ratings at the same point in his presidency. Also, Democrats eventually made enormous electoral gains despite Bush Jr.'s once seemingly indomitable job approval.
But to state the equally obvious, a massive approval spike never hurt any politician, and it won't hurt President Obama, either. The President will receive a respite from current trends, and thus also a chance to keep his approval rating in positive territory over the long-term. Killing bin Laden could put Obama on a stronger footing in the upcoming fight over the debt ceiling and the FY 2012 budget, both of which may seem a bit more ridiculous and petty in light of recent events. This dramatic achievement may even result in a small, though still important, segment of the electorate permanently viewing the President in a more favorable light.
First post-bin Laden Gallup job approvals will come out today at 1 pm eastern today. Thursday will bring the first Gallup poll consisting entirely of post-bin Laden interviews. Expect the upward trend to be steep. Also, check out Mark Blumenthal for more on this topic.
Update: ABC and Pew come in with the first poll, a one-day sample from last night of 654 adults (MoE 4.5). It shows President Obama at 56%, for a nine-point bump:
Overall, 56 percent of those polled say they approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president, an increase of nine percentage points over April polls by Post-ABC News and Pew. That is the highest approval rating for the president in either poll since 2009.
More to come.
Update 2: Gallup shows only the smallest of bumps, with President Obama's approve / disapprove numbers rising from 46%-45% to 47%-44%. However, two-thirds of the sample remain pre-bin Laden news.