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Senate:

MA-Sen: I'm sure in polite circles it's unacceptable to criticize Scott Brown over something like this, but I think his request to do his annual National Guard training in Afghanistan is really insulting to his fellow servicemembers. As the Globe notes at the very end of this article, Brown's request "could create additional risk for the troops serving with him" because he's a "high-value target." No kidding. But Brown is a clever, cynical politician, and this move will almost certainly generate good press for him.

MO-Sen: PPP will have new MO-Sen numbers out tomorrow, but from Tom's teaser on Twitter, it sounds like little has changed.

PA-Sen: It'd be pretty surprising if either Reps. Tim Murphy or Charlie Dent got into the Republican primary, but given the weakness of the GOP field, I can understand why both men are still refusing to rule out a race against Sen. Bob Casey, according to this new AP report.

Gubernatorial:

IN-Gov: Mike Pence just got utterly pwned by the news cycle. The Republican congressman was all set to announce a gubernatorial run yesterday, but a little something intervened… what was it? Anyhow, Pence says he'll reschedule his conference call (what a lame way to announce, huh?) for "later this week."

House:

NV-02: This got lost in the shuffle last week, but 2006 and 2008 Dem candidate Jill Derby, who I believe is now over 70, said she'll run in the special election to replace Dean Heller. The AP also says that 2010's sacrificial lamb, a former regent named Nancy Price, will also seek the seat again, but notes that she "did not actively campaign last year." Hopefully both of these candidates will clear the way for Treasurer Kate Marshall, since our only hope here is to present a united front.

Other Races:

NJ-St. Sen.: A New Jersey appellate court affirmed SoS Kim Guadagno's ruling which denied Carl Lewis a spot on the ballot for failing to meet residency requirements. Lewis says he will appeal to the state Supreme Court.

Wisconsin Recall: No surprises: Organizers fell short of collecting enough signatures to recall Republicans Glenn Grothman and Mary Lazich, both of whom sit in very red districts. This means that there's only one active signature drive left, against Dem Julie Lassa.

Redistricting Roundup:

Arizona: Arizona is holding a redistricting contest. Click the link for their online app. More details here.

Florida: Not long ago, we discussed some proposed Republican-sponsored legislation in Florida that would split the state Supreme Court into separate civil and criminal divisions, a move which would create a much more conservative civil branch. In theory, this would help the GOP if redistricting litigation ever reached the high court. Fortunately, it looks like the state Senate doesn't have enough votes to pass the bill (which would require putting a constitutional amendment on the ballot), so this idea is dead for now.

Michigan: Michigan is holding a redistricting contest. Click the link for their online app and more info.

Missouri: It seems like I read Jay Nixon's move incorrectly. Yesterday, I theorized he was boxing the GOP in with a quick veto, but state Democrats are actually quite pissed at him for acting in such haste. Unnamed sources tell the Hotline they think Nixon only vetoed the Republican map so as to appear only as minimally partisan as necessary—enough to look like he tried to stop the GOP, but giving the opposition enough time to over-ride his veto and take this issue off the table so that he doesn't have to go to the mat later.

This is just really disappointing. And it's no conspiracy theory, either. For evidence of Nixon's bad faith, he instructed a staffer to stick around his office last Wednesday to wait for the Republican map, which they didn't deliver until 10pm. Had he not taken delivery until the next day, an over-ride vote would have gotten kicked to September at the earliest. Even though I had thought an over-ride would have been difficult, the Hotline says (citing no one in particular) that "most expect" such a vote to succeed. This seems to sum things up:

One said that when Russ Carnahan's father Mel was head of the party as governor and senator, "We wouldn't take a bullet for each other but we'd take a few stab wounds for the greater good." Nixon, the Democrat said, "isn't even willing to even take a paper cut."

Sigh. Anyhow, Dave Catanese works up three other theories of what happened here, two of which don't really square with the first (which falls along the lines of what I've outlined above). The second is that Nixon's top donor and supporter, Tom Green, is a Russ Carnahan ally and didn't want to see this map screw over his buddy. The third is that Nixon himself is worried about a primary challenge from Carnahan, which would only happen if Carnahan is left seat-less. I'll just say I'm skeptical about both.

Site News:

Welcome! The Swing State Project has officially become Daily Kos Elections. We'll have a more detailed post on the transition a little later this morning.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue May 03, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Thanks (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, filby, pollbuster

    will follow DK Elections

  •  Sorry to start off with a nitpick, but ain't it (4+ / 0-)

    5/3 and not 5/2?

    Congrats on the new site.  Looking forward to it.

  •  Do Republicans really have the votes... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG, BarackStarObama, tietack

    To override a veto? Last I heard, it sounded like Democrats were closing ranks behind the governor in the legislature and the prognosticators were suggesting the courts will have to take up the maps.

    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 05:11:39 AM PDT

  •  Missouri (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Goobergunch, tietack

    I've added Missouri back into my calculations:

    2000s: 21-32-8
    2010s: 18-32-10

    This count includes states that do not redistrict (At Large: Alaska and Wyoming as Republican; Delaware and Vermont as Democratic; Montana and the Dakotas as swing), states that have de jure finished (Arkansas 1-2-1, Iowa 2-1-1, Louisiana 1-5-0), states that have de facto finished (Indiana 2-5-2, Missouri 2-5-1, and Oklahoma 1-4-0), and states which cannot change their seats' partisan leanings (Idaho and Nebraska as all Republican; Hawaii, Maine, and Rhode Island as all Democratic; Mississippi as 1-3-0).

    As always, if you have any suggestions or comments feel free to reply or message me.  

    21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 05:23:16 AM PDT

    •  What do these numbers mean? (0+ / 0-)
      2000s: 21-32-8
      2010s: 18-32-10
      •  It's his way of keeping track (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Goobergunch, tietack

        of redistricting.

        What it means is that under these states' old maps in 2000, there were a total of 21 safe Dem seats, 32 safe Rep seats, and 8 swing states.

        Now, with the states' new maps, there's a total of 18 safe Dem seats, 32 safe Rep seats, and 10 swing seats.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:01:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ah (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Goobergunch, JonathanMN, tietack

        I've been keeping a running tally on the partisan leanings of the new districts.

        For the states that have a) finished redistricting either de facto or de jure, b) are at-large, and c) cannot change the partisan leanings of their districts no matter where the lines are drawn, I have classified them (with the advice and consent of this community, typically discussed per state in a thread devoted to the new map) as Democratic, Republican, and Swing.

        I've also used the general classifications of the current seats as a comparison so that we can see who has benefited from the redistricting.

        The total numbers may not add up because of states losing a district or gaining a district.

        The format of the numbers is D-R-S.

        So, for the current districts (of the states listed in the comment) the breakdown is 21D-32R-8S. For the new district lines, the anticipated breakdown is 18D-32R-10S.

        The Democrats have certainly lost so far, Republicans have stayed about the same, and there are more swing districts than there used to be.

        21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:05:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Comments on the Switch (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, David Nir, tietack

    1) Love the banner, but it'd be better if it were a tad smaller.
    2) One more indention between each section? Pwetty Pwease?
    3) Seems to have gone off so far without a hitch.
    4) Love it.

    21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 05:30:38 AM PDT

  •  IN-Gov (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, drmah, itskevin, tietack

    Sucks to be Pence right now. If this ideologue wins next year, I'm seriously quitting this state. Hopefully Gregg or Simpson show some real teeth next Nov.

    Welcome DKE! I have the slightly updated sig to show off :)

    23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

    by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 05:40:37 AM PDT

  •  is nixon risking a primary? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack

    recall that McCaskill primaried bob holden in 2004, so even in conservative MO there's precedent. although McCaskill primaying "one term bob" was probably more akin to the bill halter blanche lincoln election than anything.

  •  Thoughts.... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, davybaby, tietack

    First congrats on the move Dave and all!

    Mass- Hmm...

    MO- It is good to see that the flight story did not have that much of an effect. I still do not feel that confident about this one though.

    PA- I think Casey gets second tier opposition at best. He is the perfect fit for the state.

    IN- Can't blame him, he wants his announcement to get all the news and had he announced yesterday it would have been vastly overlooked.

    NV-2- This is stupid. We have to get Derby and the 10' nominee out of this race ASAP. Reid needs to start making calls and deals. With a free for all we actually stand a chance as long as we unite around Marshall. Derby is a former state party chair right? Surely she wants to see us win! Come on, lets not screw this one up.

    NJ- What are his chance at the SC? I was thrilled to hear him announce a run. The SoS is obviously a partisan source.

    WI- Shaping up nicely. I'm not worried about Lassa, she carried her own district last year during her congressional run, she should be safe.

    AZ- cool.

    FL- Wow, they will really go all out to make sure they gerrymander the heck out of it, won't they? Pathetic.

    MI- Also cool, not much of a map drawer myself though.

    MO- Well that sucks.....

     

  •  Kucinich (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    davybaby, Kretzy, flhiii88, LordMike, tietack

    O.M.G. I'm dying on the inside.

    Perhaps this is a clue as to what the Republicans in Ohio are thinking?

    Kucinish is thinking of not running for reelection in Ohio, but for the new district in Washington.

    21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:16:42 AM PDT

    •  Shameless carpetbagging (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      davybaby, karenc, flhiii88, tietack, jncca

      What in hell could Kucinich offer Washingtonians?

      23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

      by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:28:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  . (6+ / 0-)

        This is worse than just carpetbagging. This is carpetbagging and pure political self-interest.

        I cannot imagine a worse person to represent Washington.

        21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

        by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:30:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  A chance to vote against him... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        davybaby, flhiii88, sawolf, tietack, jncca

        In something other than one of his vanity runs at the presidency?

        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

        by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:37:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What's the deal with Kucinich? Why is he so (0+ / 0-)

          disliked?  I get tin cup emails from him regularly.

          "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

          by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:49:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  . (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            flhiii88, tietack

            Because he isn't exactly electable anywhere besides his own district and he doesn't play well with independents.

            21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

            by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:50:33 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's it? I've read about Kucinich's egomania (0+ / 0-)

              elsewhere, but that trait goes with the territory.  More on that comment about not playing well with independents?  I'm not up on Kucinich, good or bad.  He never seemed like a power player to me, just a politician with a liberal seeming bent and a gift for generating publicity.

              "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

              by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:58:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  He's perceived as being a self-serving douche (8+ / 0-)

            He regularly grandstands on ideological grounds, even when it makes his party and his president look bad. His constituent service is reportedly abysmal. His head is in the clouds; I can't remember the last time he was actually involved in sponsoring or critically supporting a viable, productive bill. And he seems more focused on running for president every four years than he does on representing Cleveland or working for the common good of either the Democratic Party or the progressive movement.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

            by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:54:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  About constituent service. I agree it's part of (0+ / 0-)

              representing.  But former(thank god) Senator Pothole, D'Amato, that is, was reportedly great on constituent service and otherwise an abomination.  His constituent service is probably a large part of what kept him in office so long, three, eighteen years, terms long.  He was replaced by Schumer, of whom Hillary Clinton once joked, "He doesn't see why we need two senators from New York."

              "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

              by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:07:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Dennis had great constituent service... (0+ / 0-)

              In fact, he'd help anyone from anywhere in the state who needed help.  I realize that national folks think he's a joke, but even local republican leaders respect the guy 'cos he's true to himself and cannot be bought at any price.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:01:45 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Why don't you move here and run against him? (0+ / 0-)

              And be the next corporate- and Republican- backed "Democrat" to be trounced in the primary by the constituents that he doesn't serve,know it all from Bumfuck?Golly,who is it that's trying to eliminate his district,you New Zealander that knows oh so fucking much about what goes on here in Kucinich's district?

              •  Calm Down (0+ / 0-)

                Can you please be nice?

                21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Wed May 04, 2011 at 04:24:47 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Calm,nice,Conservative.Plannng on working for Oba- (1+ / 1-)
                  Recommended by:
                  cville townie
                  Hidden by:
                  twohundertseventy

                  ma,right?

                  •  We welcome reasonable conservatives here too (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wwmiv, SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem, jncca

                    http://www.dailykos.com/...!

                    The most crucial thing to know about DKE is that our mantra is politics not policy. That is to say, we stay laser-focused on the process and outcome of the electoral horserace, and we avoid debates about policy issues. This isn't to say policy questions never come up, but when they do, it's in the context of how they'll affect what happens on the campaign trail.

                    To take a classic example, when the healthcare fight was being waged on Capitol Hill, many Democrats disagreed as to whether the final legislation should include a public insurance option. At our predecessor site, we steered clear of this question and instead asked a more specific one: What would the electoral consequences be if the bill did—or did not—include a public option? In other words, the electoral implications of various policy choices are fair game.

                    We also try hard to separate out our personal preferences from our analysis. DKE is a progressive, Democratic site, and we never hide our partisan leanings. But while we root for Team Blue, we aren't cheerleaders: If the news is bad for us or good for the other side, we won't hesitate to report on it, and we'll give clear-eyed analysis no matter what.

                    I hope; therefore, I can live.

                    by tietack on Wed May 04, 2011 at 06:30:40 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Hey there, asshole. (0+ / 0-)

                    Put the booze away and enjoy a donut instead.

                    •  Appreciate the sentiment (0+ / 0-)

                      And the donut was warranted, but I'd prefer if we didn't sling insults in return.

                      Political Director, Daily Kos

                      by David Nir on Wed May 04, 2011 at 09:39:14 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Oh, so this is different on DKE too? (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        tietack

                        Because I'm not that new here, and this is how trolls are dealt with on the main page.

                        •  I think David is pushing a higher standard (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          wwmiv

                          And I think it's appropriate until bumps in the transition are addressed. Nevertheless, I think it's great that SSPers are all helping defend each other.

                          I hope; therefore, I can live.

                          by tietack on Thu May 05, 2011 at 07:02:56 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  I'd rather we give donuts where appropriate (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          BeloitDem

                          But avoid calling people "assholes" or whatnot.

                          Political Director, Daily Kos

                          by David Nir on Thu May 05, 2011 at 08:12:03 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  . (0+ / 0-)

                            What is a donut? Should it be added to the terms glossary?

                            21, Nice Calm Burkean Post-Modern Gay Democrat, NM-2 (Childhood), TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                            by wwmiv on Thu May 05, 2011 at 08:38:03 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Good call (0+ / 0-)

                            So, a donut is the same as giving a comment a "Hide" rating. The origin of the name is that many years ago, there was a comment rating system that went from 0 to 4. (Originally it went to five!) No one ever really used 2 or 3 (except for one weird guy named Carl Nyberg who was banned long ago). But "zeroes" were the equivalent of today's "Hide" ratings and were called "Troll" ratings. (We changed the name because the term was too fraught, and we wanted to make it clearer what the intent of the button was.)

                            So a zero of course resembles a donut. I have no idea who initially named it that way, but people started calling them "donuts," and it's stuck, long after zeroes went away. Kind of like "dailing" a phone!

                            Political Director, Daily Kos

                            by David Nir on Thu May 05, 2011 at 09:20:35 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

              •  I think you're going to find that your tone... (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv, BeloitDem, David Nir, jncca

                Is unwelcome here. I'd also encourage you to apologize to wwmiv, who has shared quite candidly his ideology, background, and obstacles he has faced with this community, of which he is an established and well-respected member. You, on the other hand, are not.

                As for Rep. Kucinich, because Ohio has to eliminate two districts in this round of redistricting, it's considered tremendously likely that he will be deathmatched with Rep. Sutton. A few months ago, I would have said that race was anyone's game; I think Kucinich really scored a major own goal with his comments about impeaching President Obama, and I expect Sutton will get the backing of the Democratic establishment if Kucinich tries to primary her. In my opinion, good riddance.

                As for being from "Bumfuck", I am happy to report that the population of Portland, Oregon, my hometown, is almost 200,000 people larger than Cleveland. We may not be a standalone city in AP datelines, but I really do worry if you haven't heard of it. (Auckland, if you're curious, has a population of 1.35 million.)

                Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

                by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 04, 2011 at 04:26:01 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Heheh (7+ / 0-)

            Of course we get this on our first day at DKE. :)

            I'm just teasing. I think the main objection to Kucinich is that he seems to put his personal pet issues ahead of consensus-building and actually working for change - that he's driven by ego rather than a desire to get things done. He's never been a team player and has few friends in the party. He also seems to be something of an opportunist, swapping out his life-long anti-choice record for supposedly pro-choice views just before he sought the presidency in 2004. Convenient!

            Some people admire him for his lonely crusades, but I think a lot of people wish he'd find a way to accomplish real goals rather than (just) grandstand. Maybe it's unjust that we live in a world where ideas like a Department of Peace are greeted with instant scorn, but that's just reality, and Kucinich making that a signature issue of his isn't going to change that reality. If politics is the art of the possible, Kucinich seems interested in the art of the impossible, and that's a turn off to people who want to solve real problems.

            I really hope we can avoid a pro-Kuchinich/anti-Kucinich flame war on our very first day, though! Pretty please? :)

            Political Director, Daily Kos

            by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:56:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Count me anti (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico

              but only since the whole "Libya Impeachment" bullshit. Before that I was generally pro. I think we'll find, though, that the super-pro-Kucinich folks are mostly the same group as the super-anti-Obama folks, so this flame war could be, well, super. He is precisely the kind of "leader" they have been demanding that the President should be. Earnest to a fault, loudly opinionated, and utterly useless at getting anything done, because nothing's ever good enough.

              The President exemplifies a diametrically opposite approach. Pragmatic to a fault, quietly subtle, and happy to get 80% and give up another 20% on top of that, because even 60% is 10% better than 50%, and if you can do that often enough, you hit 110% pretty quickly, it turns out.

              •  Completely agreed (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                the tmax

                I found Rep. Kucinich to be somewhat amusing, albeit frequently over-the-top and generally ineffectual, up until March.

                You don't call for the leader of your party to be impeached for joining a UN mandate to prevent a massacre.

                Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

                by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:09:33 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Why is Kucinich so disliked? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            Because he's a fucking asshole?

            •  I'd prefer we avoid rhetoric like this (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              RoIn, Goobergunch, gabjoh, jncca

              I think Carolin was asking a genuine question, and I don't think this helps answer that question, especially if the asker really isn't especially familiar with Kucinich.

              I asked that we avoid a flame war about Kucinich, so I would appreciate your help with that. Thanks.

              Political Director, Daily Kos

              by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:01:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  OK. I'll play nice! (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                David Nir, gabjoh, tietack, jncca
              •  Thanx, David. I am asking. For specifics. There (0+ / 0-)

                are, I'm sorry to say, fucking assholes I might vote for anyway, because I've come to understand that anyone who runs for office, at any level of government, and stays in office has personal issues.  Huge ego, impenetrably know-it-all, entitlement, that sort of thing.  I've seen that at the boro council level, for heaven's sake.  

                You really have to regard politicians as useful or not useful.  Take Rob Andrews, for instance, my Rep.  Quiet guy, never seems to appear in the media unless it's something innocuous.  Answers every inquiry and comment.  Constituent service?  Couldn't prove it by me, and I've tried his local office a couple of times.  Legislation?  You're kidding, right?  The hard charging legislator in NJ is 89 year old Lautenberg.  Menendez isn't much on that ball, either.  Andrews personally is unreachable.  Seen any footage of Andrews at a town hall?  No, I haven't, either.  And you won't.  The guy is walled off, but he gets re-elected by substantial margins every time and he's been in office since 1990.  He's damn clever at keeping the image clean and low-key, which is how he stays out of trouble and in  office.  Oh, and he doesn't get along with the other NJ delegates.  He's disliked and distrusted.  I don't vote for him, anymore.  Tough finding other people to vote for, however.

                "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:29:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Andrews a quiet guy? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  karenc

                  I'd never have thought of him that way - at least, not on account of his ridiculous primary challenge to Sen. Lautenberg in 2008. Useless, though, definitely. (Though there was an article on him in one of the Hill publications not long ago saying that he'd somehow found a way to become a team player and work his way into Nancy Pelosi's good graces.)

                  Political Director, Daily Kos

                  by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:37:42 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think there was a Lifetime movie about that (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    karenc, tietack

                    And I'm pretty sure the adverts for it used "Salisbury Hill" as the soundtrack.

                    "Running With the Pack: The True Story of How a New Jersey Politician Got a New Lease on Life."

                    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:46:07 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Yeah, I read that, too. Funny, what? He is quiet (0+ / 0-)

                    in office.  Couldn't maintain that head down posture in a campaign for an office he hadn't held before and which is state-wide. Ran for governor a while back and lost that, too.  You ought to look at his House campaigns.  Let me know what you find, will you, because I'm in his district and I don't see much.  Andrews is another of those "fixtures" who has figured out how to appear to be doing a good job.  He's a very good politician, IOW.

                    Andrews is a cipher.  I think that's how he stays in office.  It's possible that if voters knew more about him, he'd stay in office, anyway, but he doesn't take that chance.  I'm just amazed at how personally inaccessible he is, and remains popular at the polls.

                    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                    by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:54:43 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                •  Not to mention he unsuccessfully primaried (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  David Nir, tietack, jncca

                  Lautenberg, who saved NJ Democrats from either having to vote for Torrecelli when it was clear he was corrupt.

                  I did see Andrews speak once at a Morris County picnic after Lautenberg. The more dynamic person was Lautenberg, who was very very good - especially when speaking off the cuff about his youth in Patterson, where his dad worked in the unhealthly silk mills. He spoke of how his dad spoke of the filaments in the air they breathed and how that formed the basis of his support for unions and OSHA.  (A woman there spoke of her grandmother having known his family there - which started the incredible story.)  Andrews sounded like any articulate, well prepared middle manager or many politicians. I can't remember anything he said.

                  •  I recently heard Jim Florio speak and he was (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    karenc

                    terrific.  He was right on point:  same old, same old isn't cutting it.  Time for new people with new ideas.  Didn't name any names, but didn't except anybody, either.  Being out of office is good for some people.

                    Amazing, isn't it, how someone can talk for 15 or 20 minutes and sound articulate while not saying anything of substance?  Honestly, are there classes for that?  In the Capitol basement?

                    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                    by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:34:41 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I have to say this. Lautenberg doesn't look as (0+ / 0-)

                    good when you look at his votes.  Painful but true.  

                    I really wonder about those surveys that purport to rate politicians on a right to left spectrum.  First off, I don't know how each survey compiles and categorizes and tabulates.  Methodology is everything.  Then someone like Andrews, speaking of, when he's asked to answer questions on policy, gives "ratings" from various advocacy groups.  Which means he slides right past the "state your opinion" part.  What the hell does a number from NARAL mean?  Or the Audubon Society?  Some organizations are known to be inept or ineffective or even co-opted.  I want Andrews OPINIONS.  But his opinions aren't there, just 100% from this org and 100% from that org.  Oh, sure, I'll take their word for it.

                    What I think happens is that politicians--sit down, please, this is going to shock you--have learned to game the ratings systems.  In an unweighted system, giving away some liberal goodies on small issues might rate the same as taking away on big issues, so you could skew the rating to drive your numbers one way or the other by voting for small deals here and there while thumping big issues on your real agenda.

                    The point is, you really have to unpack the votes to see how a politician leans and what his agenda is.  And that, I can tell you, is a lot of work, which is why most people just take the politician's word for it.  Here's another shock:  they lie.

                    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

                    by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 01:31:51 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

    •  He would need to resign first (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tietack

      Then relocate and campaign in Washington state. Even in the remote chance that he won he would start out with zero seniority.

      •  Wrong (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, James Allen, gabjoh, tietack

        if this story is even true, Kucinich would most likely retain his seniority if he won. Returning members of Congress (like Bass, Fitzpatrick and Chabot in 2010) got credit for their previous tenure when it came to seniority.

        23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

        by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:18:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Seniority (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          Quoted from Wikipedia, with the standard proviso about its reliability inserted:

          "Representatives who return to the House after having previously served in the House are credited with service equal to one less than the number of terms they served."

          •  And should this happen (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            tietack

            Kucinich wouldn't even be a "returning" member of congress, his tenure would be unbroken.

            23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

            by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:29:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  . (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              tietack

              I'm not sure how this would work. It might be considered previous service just by virtue of being from a different state. However, it might be considered continual service as if he was simply redistricted to a different number within the same state.

              To my knowledge, this exact scenario has not happened within the past half century.

              21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

              by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:34:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Diaz-Balart (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                tietack

                Mario switched districts in 2010 and I believe his seniority was untouched. He remained in Florida though. I can't imagine they'd negate any seniority Kucinch had gained just because he moved, he'd be a member of Congress continuously since '97

                23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

                by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:39:42 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  . (0+ / 0-)

                  That was within state. I'm talking wholesale move to a different state immediately and win the election to that new state's district.

                  21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                  by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:41:33 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I did mention that. (0+ / 0-)

                    "He remained in Florida though."

                    That was just the only example I could think of.

                    23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

                    by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:45:49 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't see there would be much of an (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    tietack

                    important difference between changing states or not.  You are still changing the legal title of the Representative of OH-10, OH-13, or WA-10; all different, regardless of state.  And if we look to redistricting changes where representatives change districts all over the place while maintaing seniority, Kucinich should be fine seniority wise.  The seniority lies more in the person rather than the district they represent.

                    And just as an overall comment to this story; dumb.  Who moves across the country to maintain a Congressional seat?  The article mentions him receiving letters of support to run in roughly 20 different districts.  Ok, that sounds like national fans saying "try running here because you're fantastic and blah blah blah."  I'm sure when push comes to shove, the respective party apparatus of each state will say, ha, you're joking right?, and it'll turn out he'll have an easier shot in OH.  And he doesn't even do that well in his own district so he'd probably lose a new WA-10, anyway.

                    (Just changed "the Dems" to "us" because I'm at DKE.  Fantastic.)

                •  And for him (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  SaoMagnifico

                  They didn't even have to change the signs on the door. Still read "Diaz-Balart." :)

                  Political Director, Daily Kos

                  by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:41:46 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I don't think we need to worry too hard (0+ / 0-)

                About what would happen if this happened... cuz it ain't gonna happen!

                Political Director, Daily Kos

                by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:40:34 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Well, if Rep. Kucinich perfects the technology... (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  gabjoh, tietack, jncca

                  He can always pull his part of the Cleve up from out of the ground, fly it across the country with his Airship of Dreams, and drop it down into the Strait of Juan de Fuca somewhere. I'm sure he can make it fit.

                  Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

                  by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:55:35 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

            •  For that to happen he would have to be a resident (0+ / 0-)

              of both places on election day - and likely before. I don't think someone can run without being a resident - nor do I think that he could continue representing a district after he changed his residence.

              •  He could pull a Lugar or a Bono Mack (0+ / 0-)

                And list a Cleveland residence while not actually living there.

                23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

                by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:30:51 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Lugar? (0+ / 0-)

                  The difference is that he is declaring his residency to be two places.

                  What you are saying Lugar and Bono Mach did was to declare an address in their state where they really were not living. (Wasn't that an issue with Santorum as well?)

                  •  My bad (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    karenc

                    Lugar claiming his residence as a family farm while only staying hotels when in state is a bad press day, but not on the same level as Bono Mack living in Florida with her fellow congressman husband.

                    23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college); Swingnut

                    by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:09:55 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Bono Mack really is a complex situation (0+ / 0-)

                      There have been other marriages - including the parents of Chelsea Clinton's husband's parents ( I can't remember the names).

                      In her case, I assume she keeps an apartment or something in her district. It does mean that they likely rarely see their congresswoman and she likely has progressively less contact with people there. One would think,at some point, that they may vote her out.

                      •  Mezvinsky (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        jncca

                        Marjorie Margolies Mezvinsky was a rep. from PA that lost in '94 because she cast the decisive vote for Clinton's budget. Her husband Edward Mezvinsky was a rep. from Iowa.

                        21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                        by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:21:28 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

        •  Lautenberg didn't (0+ / 0-)

          - and in his case the caucus owed him big time - as he came in in the last minute to save the state from possibly getting a Republican if Torrecelli's problems expanded more.

      •  New Washinton Distrct (7+ / 0-)

        So the state of Washington gains a seat in Congress and all the people who have been involved with the party in the sate are supposed to take a pass at running for this seat so that Kucinich can waltz in from Ohio and have it?  

        I'm not up on the intricacies of Washington state politics, but I can't imagine that happening.

    •  Doesn't your district or state (0+ / 0-)

      have to lean very heavily to one side and/or don't you have to be a pretty big star in order for this to work? I don't think either of those would apply to this situation with Kucinich, so I am kind of baffled about what he's thinking.

  •  I don't think anyone seriously believes (0+ / 0-)

    that Russ Carnahan could beat Nixon in a primary. No doubt there are other Carnahans who would give him a real race, though.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:41:35 AM PDT

  •  As a Jersey resident--you guessed, right?--I'd (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    support Guadagno's ruling if there were any evidence this administration is simply applying the law evenhandedly.  Ha, ha.  Not a chance.  Unfortunately, because laws governing elections are way too casually stepped over and around way too frequently.  Guadagno is as abrasively and entirely partisan as Christie.

    There is a case to be made that Lewis doesn't meet the residency requirement.  The argument  that the requirement is unconstitutional is for another court, altho I've heard, on "Reporters' Roundtable," that issue was litigated and settled previously, ruled unconstitutional.  Not my area of expertise.  Anyone?

    "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

    by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:45:54 AM PDT

    •  I think this is exactly right (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      It would be nuts to trust Guadagno at all. She's just Christie's henchman. As for this:

      I've heard, on "Reporters' Roundtable," that issue was litigated and settled previously, ruled unconstitutional.  Not my area of expertise.  Anyone?

      I had heard this, too, but the court of appeals seems to think that other precedents or rules must apply. I guess we'll find out what the state Supreme Court (long known as a very liberal body, though Christie's doing his best to change that, of course) says soon.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 06:50:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Christie's playing an old game here, working the (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Nir, gabjoh

        refs.  He's extremely aggressive and abrasive, threatening, and he's effective.  The court really doesn't want to get into a brawl with the governor and Christie knows that.  He wants all the power, every last little bit, in his hands to do with as he pleases.  Personally pleases, there's no impersonal with Christie.  It's an indictment of the system that he's a lawyer.  Christie doesn't give a shit about The Law, he wants to be The Law, whatever suits him at the moment.

        "The worst that can happen to any group of people working to unseat an existing power base is their failure to imagine the lengths to which those in power will go to keep it." Cognitive Dissonance at Zero Hedge

        by CarolinNJ on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:26:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I like Mark Dayton's approach (0+ / 0-)

          The GOP come up with something that has broad support but a few annoying things for liberals, so he just signs an executive order with all the things that are agreeable.  This kills their legislation and gives him all the credit for what was their idea and what they worked to get in to the press.  He knows how to stretch his powers so that he doesn't have to work with a GOP legislature all without looking a dick.

          Yup, Mark Dayton played us all as he really does know his shit.  He can make Time's top governors in a few years, no doubt.  (Although I still think having Margaret-Anderson Kelliher as Governor would've been better because her at the top of the ticket could've saved us several suburban seats and the majorities in both chambers.)

  •  For cranky SSP readers (0+ / 0-)

    Martin Solveig, "Hello" (short version), inspired by hearing it last night on terrestrial radio. Will wonders never cease?

    Yes, this is also a blog that can attract records.

  •  Regarding Scott Brown (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    karenc, gabjoh

    as one wag put it: "Send in the Lawyers!"

    It's getting exactly that kind of play here: "stunt", "engandering fellow real soldiers", "special treatment", etc.

    He really is an ass.

    •  So it's actually biting him? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, gabjoh

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:51:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think so... (0+ / 0-)

        judging from comments that were left on the Boston.com (The Globe's website).  His supporters usually rally to his defense on The Globe's site especially, and my casual observation is that they had little to say.

        In a casual conversation at my town's annual town meeting last night (my town voted for Brown),  there were a few people that tried to defend his going, but even they laughed at some of the jokes about his quest for a campaign ribbon for lawyering.

        •  Huh (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          Well, this heartens me. (And I like your use of the Boston.com comments section as a temperature gauge - but wow, you must have a seriously cast-iron stomach to look at all that!) I figured noble Scott Brown's noble service was too noble to ever be questioned... but it's nice to be proven wrong about something like this.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:30:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  The comments section of my paper (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            David Nir

            makes me want to cry, laugh, and punch a wall all at once.  I'd go with cast-diamond stomach.

            And I always can't help but wonder; if they read the newspaper, why can't they respond to it intelligently?  Are they even reading it?  I mean, you need to have a whole name and password to get to comment, that should be enough of a filter for people who just check one article once a month.  It's a paradox.

            •  My (conspiracy) theory (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, lalo456987

              is that some conservative groups are targeting sites--not like this one, but more general ones like Politico--as a way to shape opinion. Having an actual human write all of those comments might be time consuming and pointless, but why can't some Koch Brother-like shadow group use a Ron Paul-like spambot program to comment every time Jon Tester or Claire McCaskill is brought up, if the technology allows this to happen? If it shapes the narrative even slightly, it'd probably be worth it, in their minds at least.

              I've told you something along these lines before, but every so often, I think it might actually be true.

      •  If people are really as cynical about all things (0+ / 0-)

        politics. Then this seems like the perfect thing to be cynical about. He's a a freaking sitting United States Senator.

        19, Chairman of the SSP Gay Caucus, male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:15:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think this is, yet, but (0+ / 0-)

        the LWV is running a very effective ad highlighting Brown's vote against the EPA's clean air and water standards.

        Brown's party-line support for pro-business, anti-everyone else Republican causes will hurt him a lot more than the Afghanistan posting.

    •  His timing was also unbelievably tone deaf (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      4jkb4ia

      The story first came out yesterday morning when the story of the day (week ?) was Obama getting OBL.

      The first mention was a Boston Globe article, where he was so coy with the reporter that it was not clear if he had deployment orders or if it was even a mission.  They later rewrote the article when he put out his statement that he was REQUESTING to go to Afghanistan for his training.

      Here was a quote I posted elsewhere from the original article:

      Senator Scott Brown said this morning that he is being sent to Afghanistan, but the member of the Massachusetts National Guard would not say if he is being formally deployed.

      “I will put out a statement later about my involvement," Brown told The Boston Globe in a brief telephone interview. "I’m going to be going over at some point to do some missions.”

      Asked if he were being deployed, the Army lieutenant colonel said, "I didn't say that."

      Here is the link to the updated article - http://www.boston.com/...=

      My reaction as a partisan was that this was completely weird and not thought out.  In addition to the impact on the people he would join, it is not clear what he is trying to do. As a Senator, it is just as impossible for him to really experience what a member f the guard deployed there does.

      In the first place he is there for just two weeks. In the second place, he will not be treated as a regular person, he will be protected and will have access to Afghan leaders and US and NATO military people - even though he will not be there officially as a Senator.

      This kind of would make him neither fish or fowl. It would make far more sense for him to go to Afghanistan with more experienced Senators as part of a Congressional delegation for either the Armed Services Committee or the Homeland Security committee (  under which he took a one man trip to Israel.)

      I also think that if he tries to use those 2 weeks by saying he experienced combat, there will be blow back. With the Boston Globe's help, he has had HUGE coverage as a 30 plus year MA NG officer. He has often spoken of "military experience". He clearly runs the risk of having people say that he exaggerated - as  Kirk (and Blumenthal) did.  (Particularly in a state where some Republicans still claim that a highly decorated vet, who actually rarely spoke of medals - just serving has been attacked  as exaggerating. )

      I suspect this makes Brown look silly, opportunistic, and incredibly self obsessed.

      I think the timing was that he reacted to what likely was a huge increase in the likelihood that Obama will win Massachusetts in a huge landslide possibly pulling in a Democrat on his coattails.

      Oddly, this and the over the top anger that the League of Women Voters's ad on his supporting McConnell's amendment to stop the EPA from regulating greenhouse gases might destroy the view of him as a nice, down to earth guy - because he is certainly not acting like one.

    •  I cant fault Brown for wanting to serve.... (0+ / 0-)

      after all so many don't.

      Brown was in the National Guard long before he won his senate seat so its not like he joined for the politics of it.

      IMHO he's really in a no win situation here.

      The Globe is critizing him for going to Afghanistan for political benefit, but if he asked not to go to Afghanistan because he's a senator and "could create additional risk for the troops serving with him" he would be criticized for shirking his duty and getting preferential treatment as a Senator.

      In the  end I think this line of attack against Scott Brown will meet with as much success as Coakley's criticism of him for  wasting his time standing outside Fenway Park, in the cold, shaking hands! In as strong a Blue state as MA is its better to stick to the issues when going after Brown. If 2012 becomes a personality contest again Brown will get re-elected easily.

      Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info: http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com/refer/getfreestuff

      by izengabe on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:01:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He requested to go to Afghanistan. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        They were not going to send him there for training nor should they. Lindsey Graham did the same thing in 2008. It's not a safe situations for the troops that are around these high profile politicians.

        19, Chairman DKElections Gay Caucus, male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:29:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Iggy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Goobergunch, LordMike, gabjoh

    steps down as Liberal leader after the drubbing the party took last night. (Oh and congratulations on the move, still miss SSP though....)

    http://www.cbc.ca/...

    •  The best move he's made all year (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      Now Liberals are free to choose a new terrible, divisive leader who will continue to shepherd a once great party into twilight.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:06:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  In all seriousness though... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      The leadership battle should be very interesting. The result could tell us a lot about whether a coalition or merger on the left is something that is a real possibility (as opposed to being the Canadian equivalent of "Beltway gossip") or something that is a pie in the sky.

      As others have pointed out, though, a splintered left wing and a unified right wing in a FPTP parliamentary system is a recipe for Conservative dominance in both the short and long term, even in a country that is naturally left-of-center. Reminds me of the old Franklin cartoon a bit.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:09:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Denver mayoral election today... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, gabjoh

    Because of the number of candidates running there will almost certainly be a runoff election between the two top candidates.  Still today is worth watching, as the big money and Republican support is going to the DINO Democrat Chris Romer (to my knowledge all the candidates are Democrats, and this is a non-partisan at large election).  If James Mejia and Michael Hancock get the top two slots (Romer, Mejia and Hancock were the top 3 in a poll), that would be the best result IMO.

    Tidbit: Chris Romer is former Governor Roy Romer's son.

    No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

    by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 07:58:05 AM PDT

    •  Romer (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Magster

      Romer is probably the most electable statewide. Given that Denver is a huge springboard to higher office in Colorado, I'd prefer that someone electable statewide win. However, it really doesn't matter to me.

      21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:01:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I dunno. Hickenlooper wasn't a strong candidate... (0+ / 0-)

        in the awful 2010 political climate until his competition turned into Dan Maes and Tom Tancredo.

        Any unblemished Dem could have won the governor's race in CO last year.

        No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

        by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:12:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hickenlooper (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Kretzy, gabjoh

          Was an exceptionally strong Democrat last year, even when considering the fact that he faced a fractured Republican vote.

          He did, after all, win a majority of the vote in a state which is ancestrally Republican in the most Republican cycle in our lifetimes. If that isn't strong, I don't know what it.

          21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

          by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:14:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oops. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Magster

            "I don't know what it" is.

            21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

            by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:15:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  We agree to disagree. I like Hickenlooper (0+ / 0-)

              but he adopted some weenie-Dem talking points and I don't think a Dem has to be a "centrist" to win Colorado. Especially if the Republican nominees for state wide offices continue to be totally f'ing insane.

              No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

              by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:19:23 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  . (0+ / 0-)

                Name one non-centrist (and not conservative either) Democrat that has won statewide election in Colorado ever.

                21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:23:20 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  . (0+ / 0-)

                  ... this was a dumb question. The answer is staring me in the face: Bill Ritter.

                  :)

                  21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                  by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:26:32 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                •  "Boulder liberal Mark Udall" and Obama (0+ / 0-)

                  they turned into centrists once elected, but their reputations weren't seen as centrists during the election.

                  Tim Wirth was pretty liberal back in the day.  Gary Hart.  

                  No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

                  by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:29:21 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  ... (0+ / 0-)

                    All centrists in the grand scheme of things. Udall is definitely a centrist. Gary Hart was centrist, which is why he didn't get the nomination in '84. Tim Wirth was known as a bipartisan process man... centrist.

                    21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

                    by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:32:39 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  I don't see Gov. Hickenlooper... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Magster

                    As being any more conservative than Sen. Mark Udall. I think he's less high-profile on the issues, but I think if their roles were switched, Hick's voting record would be virtually identical to Udall's, and Udall's governing policies would be virtually identical to Hick's.

                    Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:49:33 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Another thing often forgotten (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Magster

                      Is that Ken Salazar almost came back to run for Governor, since he's a Coloradan at heart and people were pining for him. His record might have been more conservative than Hick's, but Hick's genial centrism probably made Salazar feel good about staying out of the race because someone close enough to him in policy was about to become governor.

                      24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

                      by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:56:15 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I had almost forgotten about that (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        Magster, gabjoh

                        I'll spare y'all my personal thoughts about Secy. Salazar, but suffice to say I'm very glad Gov. Hickenlooper was the candidate and that he beat that festering racist piece of shit Tom Tancredo last year.

                        Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

                        by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:00:09 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                    •  The difference to me is that Udall strikes me.... (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      SaoMagnifico, Kretzy, drobertson

                      .... as a politician, going centrist when he wasn't pandering to the Boulder base.  While Hickenlooper seems sincere.  I don't agree with Hickenlooper all the time, but I naively think that he believes he's right. I dunno...

                      Hickenlooper got the light-rail going when no one else could.  I will always appreciate him for that.

                      No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

                      by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:56:39 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Two points (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Magster

                1) I don't necessarily think him being more centrist makes him a bad candidate. It makes him less-optimal on a policy level (for some), but it doesn't make him a poor choice for the election.

                2) Many "unblemished" Dems lost their respective races, including Treasurer Kennedy and Secretary of State Buescher.

                24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

                by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:26:02 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Regardless of his ideology (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem

                He was an exceptionally strong candidate.  There was never any real doubt in his election, which is remarkable for a swing state in a tidal year for the other side.

                http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/13/21516/201/804/660248

                by tommypaine on Tue May 03, 2011 at 02:40:50 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I have to disagree (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, HoosierD42, Magster, LordMike

          Hickenlooper, for his flaws (inability to actually take a stand on issues, for instance), was a VERY good candidate. Having him and Bennet at the top of the ticket was crucial to CO Dems holding the State Senate, and denying Republicans too many electoral victories in such an awful climate.

          24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

          by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:20:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Magster, LordMike

            I like Gov. Hickenlooper. He strikes me as a fair kind of guy, not a scheming politico or a power-tripping bully like some other governors (Republican and Democrat, past and present) I can think of.

            And I think running as a "regular ordinary guy" and positioning himself against all the negative campaigning that Maes and Tancredo lobbed at each other and at Hick really served him well. The "shower" ad was one of the most memorable (for me) of last cycle. I liked it so much I even showed it to some of my friends, making it part of an elite cadre with Dale Peterson's "thugs and criminals!" ad and Carly Fiorina's "demon sheep" ad - only in a good way.

            Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

            by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:33:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Can't recall (0+ / 0-)

      There was a discussion about in SSP a while back, what are Meija and Hancock's claims to fame?

      23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

      by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:02:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Both have held a few different positions (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Magster

        Mejia served in a few administrations, was an at-large School Board Member, and directed the Denver Preschool Program.

        Hancock is a several term city councilman, who served as President of the Council.

        24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

        by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:09:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Which one is more progressive? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, Magster, izengabe

          We all know Denver is becoming a communist sinkhole from the bike-sharing program anyway.

          23, liberal democrat, DKE Gay Caucus Majority Whip, IN-02 (home), IN-03 (birth), SC-03 (early childhood), IN-09 (college)

          by HoosierD42 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:15:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Mejia is probably the progressive favorite (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Magster

            With Linkhart a close second (current councilman, consistently running 4th in most polls).

            24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

            by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:18:53 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Mejia and Hickenlooper were pretty tight (0+ / 0-)

              so Mejia being progressive isn't necessarily a certainty.  But like I said before, the unions have gravitated towards him.

              No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

              by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:24:56 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Hick is known for having a very disparate group (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Magster

                under him. His COS after Bennet was a Republican, but then folks like Mejia, who's had union support since before his run for School Board, as well.

                I will say it is unlikely any of them will be progressive, but Mejia will probably be closest of the three who have a shot at winning.

                24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

                by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:31:23 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Mejia was in charge... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kretzy

        ... of Denver's pre-school program for a while (Denver voters voted to fund free public PK) and he managed the construction of a mega Justice Center/Courthouse "on time and under budget" according to his commercials.  He also has union endorsements.

        Hancock has been a solid likeable City Councilman. (I've supported Mejia but I like Hancock too).

        No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

        by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:10:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  From my friends on the ground (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Magster

      It's actually quite possible that Romer completely misses the runoff, and Hancock-Mejia becomes the race.

      Even if he makes the runoff, it's pyrrhic; he can't beat either Mejia or Hancock one-on-one.

      24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

      by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:33:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm watching this and throwing $ into it from.... (0+ / 0-)

        the suburbs and a little more detached from it, so I'm not "in the know".  Are your friends on the ground working for a particular campaign?

        No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

        by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:43:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Some (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Magster

          A lot work in/around the state house, and are supporting various candidates. I'd say half are for Hancock, most of the rest Mejia, and only a handful for Romer.

          I sent in my ballot for Colorado Springs mayor today, though. Can't believe a relative progressive made the runoff (Richard Skorman) and has a chance at beating the conservative developer (Steve Bach).  

          24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

          by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:48:50 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That whole story of CO Springs infrastructure (0+ / 0-)

            and parks being unkept was really an embarrassment. Maybe the local citizenry decided that funding basic municipal services might not be that bad a thing after all.

            No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

            by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:52:37 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Skorman is an institution as well (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Magster

              His "Poor Richard's" shop was my favorite hangout while in undergrad.

              He's a registered Indy, and Democrats clearing the field (not necessarily easy to do, EVEN in Colo. Springs) for him was a smart move. I'm hopeful he's got the momentum to take the whole thing, now that the city has moved to a strong-mayor government.

              24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

              by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:58:19 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  There's a Poor Richard's bookstore here in Parker (0+ / 0-)

                Is that the same guy?  I called our Parker store inquiring about a book, and the lady there said he was attending to business until Wednesday.  

                No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

                by Magster on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:03:48 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  One more crazy race in Denver (2+ / 0-)

      Is the race for Carla Madison's now-vacant City Council seat (as Madison passed away from cancer a few weeks ago, and was running unopposed).

      There are 35+ registered write-in candidates for the seat, and Denver election law doesn't force a runoff in City Council races. Someone could feasibly (and will likely) be elected to the City Council with about 12-15% of the vote.

      24, DKElections Gay Caucus Policy Chair; CA-14 (law school), CO-05 (home)

      by Kretzy on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:51:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Please..Not Pence (6+ / 0-)

    The thought of Mike Pence becoming governor in Indiana is horrible enough to make me wish Daniels could run for another term. Pence makes Daniels look positively moderate, if not progressive.

  •  MO-Sen: McCaskill at 46/47 approval (0+ / 0-)

    http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/...

    She's down 1 to Akin and up 3, 7 over Steelman and Martin. However, Jensen seems to suggest that most undecideds are Republicans who don't know enough about the GOP field.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:31:51 AM PDT

    •  No. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, itskevin

      She's up one on Akin at 46-45.

      21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:42:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, that's not good (0+ / 0-)

      Still, Sen. McCaskill has room to grow among Democrats, and she's a good campaigner. This is a tossup race, and it's hard to tell how things shake out.

      It's just rough in the Ozark, Appalachian, and Gulf states, because the Southern realignment is basically finishing up there after a generation or two and the minority and urban populations just aren't big enough there to keep them competitive on a statewide level in most cycles. In Virginia, North Carolina, and I think increasingly we'll see Georgia and even South Carolina, there are enough minority, urban, and educated voters to put those states in play for savvy Democrats. But Democrats are really eating the demographic shift in states like Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana.

      Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

      by SaoMagnifico on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:46:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  All MoE stuff (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      Everyone made a big fuss of her poor indie numbers last time. Though the toplines are pretty much the same she has majority approval with unaffiliateds in this poll and beats all Republicans with those same voters.

      •  I stand vindicated, as does David's original take (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NMLib, itskevin

        I always said the plane business wouldn't matter to voters.  And this proves it.  They're shrugging it off.  Yes they have doubts about McCaskill, but those doubts are entirely and solely political ones, not ethical ones.

        In a time of war, is that really the time to be asking whether we should be at war?...When it is over we should ask whether we should leave. -- Stephen Colbert

        by DCCyclone on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:02:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Of the independents who have an opinion (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, itskevin

      of Todd Akin, they dislike him by a 2-1 ratio.

      (ah, I miss the longer subject lines!)

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:46:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Commenting is more fluid here, but it looks (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, Magster, NMLib, gabjoh, itskevin

    like you kept the bulk of your traffic.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:41:49 AM PDT

  •  Alabama (0+ / 0-)

    This is not going to play well at all.

    21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

    by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 08:42:55 AM PDT

  •  CA-03: Lungren gets primary challenge (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.calaverasenterprise.com/...

    The challenger, freshman Calaveras County Supervisor Darren Spellman, announced at Lungren's own town hall.  That's one of the more direct announcements I've seen...

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:42:11 AM PDT

    •  Oh My God (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      How brazen.

      21, Conservative Gay Democrat, TX-23 (School), TX-10 (Home); SSP: wmayes

      by wwmiv on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:48:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't really make a difference (0+ / 0-)

      with top-two.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:57:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Unless the guy gets more votes than Lungren (0+ / 0-)

        Don't really see it happening but it wouldn't be the strangest thing to ever occur.  Besides, Lungren isn't the strongest incumbent.  At the very least a primary from the right could move Lungren into more rightwing territory, which could be bad for him if his new district has territory that doesn't know him well.

        21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

        by Jeff Singer on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:13:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  True (0+ / 0-)

          with the top-two system being so new, it's kind of hard to predict how it will play out. I don't know if there's ever been an analogous election in WA. I think the SacCo suburbs have lots of Indys, so Lungren might try to play up his fauxderate credentials, especially because the general will be tough for him.

          21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

          by sapelcovits on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:35:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Wait...what? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh
      “The people that have approached me, they are not concerned. It’s kind of a grassroots movement of people who are in the middle, not to the far right or far left – a lot of libertarians, a lot of Green Party, those types of people as well as more conservative Constitutionalists.”

      “These people are kind of really pragmatic – looking for true representation.”


      Did he just describe Greens, Libertarians, and Constitution Partiers as moderate and pragmatic? Never thought I would hear that.

      Male, VA-08, -6.00, -9.13 SwingStateProject expat

      by drobertson on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:23:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nothing say pragmatic like losing every election! (0+ / 0-)

        I missed that quote.  Wow...

        21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

        by Jeff Singer on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:31:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, "pragmatic" is not the best word there (0+ / 0-)

          I mean, I admire their commitment, I suppose. But I don't really know what's "pragmatic" about staking out a position on the fringe and voting for parties that are too small and weak to ever come into power.

          I'm actually curious as to what the stats are for left-wing third-partiers voting Democratic and right-wing third-partiers voting Republican in federal elections, FWIW...

          Independent, Auckland Central resident, MD-05 voter, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life.

          by SaoMagnifico on Wed May 04, 2011 at 04:31:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Bounce (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin, DCCyclone

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Whereby I give limited ratings for the story since they breathlessly report no improvement in economic approval. Well, of course not you idiots!

    SurveyUSA says 46-42. Rasmussen claims a minor improvement in his "index" but nothing more. I suspect it will take several days to shake itself out. Not that I expect it to go very high or last very long. I don't think the president will get the same kind of credit Bush would have got.

  •  FL-11(?) (0+ / 0-)
    State Sen. Mike Bennett, R-Bradenton, is leaving no doubt about his plans to run for Congress in 2012.

    ...

    But Bennett is counting on the 11th District to be redrawn to include more of Manatee County and less of Hillsborough as part of the congressional redistricting process. Bennett said, because of how big Manatee and Sarasota counties have become, the Legislature will likely have to take more of Manatee County out of Buchanan's 13th District and put those voters into the 11th District.

    http://www.heraldtribune.com/...

  •  Arizona (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Goobergunch, NMLib, itskevin

    Obama job approval 46-50. Romney leads 48-44 but the president leads Huckabee 46-44, Gingrich 47-40, Palin 49-38, and Trump 48-36.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

  •  Harsdorf Gets an Opponent (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Nir, itskevin, Goobergunch

    http://hudson-wi.patch.com/...

    I have no idea who Shelly Moore is, so I cannot fully comment on her quality.  However, I feel that she is not in the league of Shilling, King, Clark, or Pasch in that they already have won elections and have established bases of support.  I would have wanted Ann Hraychuck to run, but if the Dems up there are satisfied with Moore, that is fine by me.

    In total, the Dems have five of the six candidates they need, with Cowles outstanding (understandable since that recall was the last to file and there is not much of a Dem bench outside of Tom Nelson).  On the Republican side, the strongest opponent against Wirch, Samantha Kerkman, is not running.  

    •  Did Pasch (0+ / 0-)

      Already announce?

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 11:12:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A google search suggests not (0+ / 0-)

        but apparently those close to her have confirmed she is running.

        21, male, RI-01 (voting)/IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

        by sapelcovits on Tue May 03, 2011 at 11:15:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not officially (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        David Nir, itskevin

        An announcement will be come on Thursday, but it is likely she is the candidate.

        The Recall Darling facebook group posted this story on their wall, which suggests she is the candidate:
        http://shorewood.patch.com/...

        This story has some more information:
        http://www.milwaukeelabor.org/...
         Key Part from the article:
        "one of the Democrats’ brightest stars in the Assembly would be taking on Alberta Darling in that crucial District 8 recall election. A formal announcement of the actual candidate was planned for later in the week

        One of her fellow legislator spilled the beans Sunday before 500 listeners at the Bay View Tragedy -- Rep. Sandy Pasch would be the Democratic standard bearer against Darling, news that drowned Pasch in unexpected cheers of support. Sources also have told Labor Press that this contest may be a bit like a “two-fer” (two for the price of one in Broadway ticket terms) since physician Sheldon Wasserman, a former member of the Assembly who almost beat Darling in 2008, was also eager to run and will certainly be an active supporter if not participant in this race.

        Both Pasch and Wasserman attended the Saturday Democratic dinner without revealing the news, but insiders then told Labor Press that Pasch had scored strongly in surveys of voters, and that she is a new candidate for Darling who now has to scramble to focus that costly GOP opposition research on her."

        This is good news as I believe she is the stronger opponent.

      •  I'm pretty sure I saw somewhere (0+ / 0-)

        that she's waiting until the weekend.

        But I suspect it's all but official now.

    •  Not the best news in the world (0+ / 0-)

      The only good thing about this is that it gets a candidate out there so that she can start fundraising. I was really hoping that gpack was wrong about Hraychuck not running, but it seems he was right.

      Still this race is probably still a tossup. Despite having never held elected office, being a teacher is probably a good biography point in this election, and the union experience says that she probably isn't politically clueless. Here's to hoping she turns out to be a good candidate, despite being relatively untested.

      •  It is an intriguing candidacy (0+ / 0-)

        She was actually profiled in the MJS in a story about how the budget battle has affected teachers:
        http://www.jsonline.com/...

        "Shelly Moore is a third-generation Wisconsin public school teacher. At age 37, she's working in the small rural district of Ellsworth, about 20 minutes from the Minnesota border. It's a pastoral community where downtown is two blocks long and "the cows got out" is an acceptable excuse from children arriving late to school.

        An English and drama teacher of 13 years, Moore just finished turning Ellsworth Community High School's production of Shakespeare's "As You Like It" into a musical featuring songs from the '80s. She's nationally board certified, the only Advanced Placement teacher in the school, and participates in a national, independent commission on effective teachers and teaching.

        She received her layoff notice earlier this year.

        A reduction in staffing will help the district meet an expected $1.1 million shortfall next year. Moore thinks she might get recalled, at which point she calculates she'll lose about $6,000 per year under Walker's plans.

        Her salary without benefits is less than $50,000, and she can't increase her pay with any more education credits, she said.

        "So I pay $6,000 just to keep my job, and I have less people around me and more students in my classes," Moore said. "There comes a time when there's a tipping point in this, and the caliber of person who you want to do this job is just not going to be there."

        Moore adores teaching. But she's smart and single, which makes it easier to switch careers or seek a job in another state. Everything she's applied for since getting her layoff notice has been outside the field of teaching.

        "I think it'd be fun to work in a bank," she said. "I've thought about going to law school, and I applied for a job with the Minnesota Arts Board."'

        While this candidacy is different from the other four, she has an interesting story to tell.  In her position as a teacher, she will be directly affected by Walker's and Harsdorf's actions not just about collective bargaining but about the entirety of the education cuts.  While her involvement in WEAC makes it even more likely that she will be painted as a "teacher's union lackey" (as if any Democrat is not painted as a union lackey), I think her career as an educator allows to speak with an honesty about the impact of Walker's and Harsdorf's plans that the other candidates, as electeds, cannot, which can be an asset. It certainly would be different than selecting Hraychuck and it is more risky, but it can be very powerful based on her biography.  In addition, she is only 37, so if she is successful, she could turn into a very desirable Congressional or Statewide candidate.  King is also quite young, so this can turn into a very neat bench-building election.
        So maybe I should qualify my earlier comments and say that it is a different candidate than the rest, but based on her career as an educator at this time in Wisconsin, it can nevertheless be a strong candidacy.  

        •  I agree that it's a potentially powerful candidacy (0+ / 0-)

          Nothing says "republicans are fucking over the state," like "I'm a teacher, I just lost my job."

          Still, it's a high risk proposition. I a reasonable level of faith that they didn't just pick some gladfly, but you can never tell how a candidate who's never run for office before is going to respond to the pressure of the campaign trail, and this race will receive a lot more attention and money than your average State Senate race.

  •  I'm all for denouncing Scott Brown (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kretzy, jncca

    and any other Rethug whenever possible, and I'm sure he has political motives for wanting to do service in Afghanistan.

    But seriously, even in this country, who except for his own constituents and politics-junkies has the slightest idea who Scott Brown is?  And  I'd venture to predict that in Afghanistan, ninety percent of the Taliban are illiterate in their own language, and probably couldn't even name any members of their own Parliament.  The idea that they would know who Scott Brown is and would target him personally is frankly laughable.

    Let's get real here.

    Donald Trump being sworn in as President would be a great last scene in a Planet of the Apes remake -- Andy Borowitz

    by Egypt Steve on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:43:36 AM PDT

    •  Hmm (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh

      It only takes one Taliban leader to find out about this and give the orders. What's more, even if the chances are remote, Brown's superiors have to take extra preventive measures to make sure even the most unlikely attack is successful.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Tue May 03, 2011 at 10:53:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yep (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        Reminds me of Prince Harry. All very admirable that he wanted to stay out there but it became a problem when being there put others at risk.

      •  I don't even particulary care (0+ / 0-)

        about Brown. He's doing this to himself, but he's putting at risk the soldiers around him if he does this. He should know better. The Taliban are looking for any way to retaliate. It may be remote, but it's still a risk.

        19, Chairman DKElections Gay Caucus, male, Dem, IN-09 (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

        by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 11:00:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Hmm indeed. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Kretzy

        I agree that that might be a perceived political necessity.  I don't accept at all that there's any real military rationale for it.

        And "higher value" targets have served in combat before.  Lincoln had sons in combat during the Civil War; Eisenhower had sons in combat during World War II. A son of Teddy Roosevelt was a general during World War II and landed at Normandy on D-Day.

        Donald Trump being sworn in as President would be a great last scene in a Planet of the Apes remake -- Andy Borowitz

        by Egypt Steve on Tue May 03, 2011 at 11:03:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  He's a JAG officer. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      He'll almost certainly be on one of the largest bases in an office, far from the fighting. If the Taliban can pick and choose which colonels to target in Bagram, than the military has larger problems than Scott Brown and those around him.

      So, he's not going to endanger his fellow service members. But you can feel free to denounce him for political showmanship. Lindsey Graham has done the same thing on a few occasions, although as a reservist rather than a Guardsman.

      Conservative, VA-08 (residence), CA-15 (school)

      by LtNOWIS on Tue May 03, 2011 at 12:56:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So there's (0+ / 0-)

        very little chance of this meaning anything bad for regular soldiers? If so, good. I don't really care about any political bounce this might give him, if it does in fact do that. Should one exist, it can be overcome.

    •  Assuming all of our enemies are stupid (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      Is half of what got us into trouble in the Middle East in the first place. Sure, most of the ground troops probably wouldn't know who Scott Brown is, but there's definitely someone in the Taliban chain of command who knows what a Senator is and the propaganda benefits they would get from targeting one.

  •  Julie Lassa doesn't need a recall campaign. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    She was very much pregnant during her and the rest of the Wisconsin 14's time in Illinois. Not that she would loose.

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09)

    by ndrwmls10 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 11:28:51 AM PDT

  •  MN Redistricting Maps Are Out! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, Goobergunch, GradyDem, tietack

    First up are the state house versions for the state house and senate.

    Just from looking at the state senate map, they didn't play hardball.  (Not that it matters because it'll go to the courts most likely.)  They did some work on the Iron Range with some DFL packing and along with their new Moorehead district, means they tried their best to crack some DFL rural strongholds up north.  (Their Senate District 6 is genius.)  However, the southeastern corner of the state is a complete disaster and I have no idea why they'd draw it this way.  They definitely cost themselves two seats, drew two seats where their incumbents could at least make some race of it, and another that nears toss-up.  No idea what they were thinking.  Same with the north metro Anoka County area but they did some good thinking with the north metro in Ramsey County.

    Now, there was one "Hot Damn!" moment and that was seeing the district for Terri Bonoff, a 2008 nominee for MN-3 and also viewed as our best chance for taking out Paulsen some day.  She represents what is the first solid DFL suburb over 40k people, however, this suburb is borders the very large Lake Minnetonka, which could be described as the Upper East Side of the Twin Cities.  They put Minnetonka along with these lake cities which means Bonoff would be done for.  They also dismantled the district for Katie Sieben and threw her home into a St. Paul based district.  She is a 30-something year old suburban state senator who is viewed as a strong competitor to John Kline whenever she chooses to run.  I don't know about the residency laws but she options with the remains of her district.

    State house seats are created by taking a senate district and splitting in half.  And in comparison to the senate map, the house one is pretty tame when they actually broke down the districts.  The aforementioned senate district of Lake Minnetonka is split north/south rather than east/west, the later being more logical because then you preserve the city of Minnetonka into one district rather than cutting it in half to pair with adjacent lake cities, but that's gerrymandering for ya.  They squeezed out another west metro house seat with some creative gerrymanders that didn't make sense by looking at the SD map but were realized when I saw what they did in the house.

    Other than that, they really weren't that devious.  And yet, their districts still look ugly.  My gerrymanders that are much harsher still turn out prettier at times.

  •  Jack Conway's (0+ / 0-)

    scandal ridden brother resigns from the prosecutors office. Jack Conway's opponent was trying to make his brother an issue of the campaign.
    http://www.whas11.com/...

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9. Was hoosierdem on SSP, but that username was already taken here :(

    by drhoosierdem on Tue May 03, 2011 at 05:47:45 PM PDT

  •  Newsweek finds no Obama bounce (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/...

    63/34 approval on terrorism, but only 48/49 approval overall.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    by andyroo312 on Tue May 03, 2011 at 09:03:22 PM PDT

  •  Obama beats all Republicans but Romney in AZ (0+ / 0-)

    And this PPP poll went thru Sun., May 1st - doubt they called people after 9pm - President announced bin laden dead after calling would have ended - look at methodology
    Obama beats all Republicans but Romney in AZ

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