**crossposted from StochasticDemocracy**
With all ridings now fully reporting, there's now enough data to pick apart our model and see how it did.
EDIT:: Resized to fit page width ::
How our model did in comparison to ThreeHundredEight.com, the primary Canadian Forecaster
Our pre-election forecasts graphed against Election Results (Not including Saanich--Gulf Islands).
Table showing deviation of election results from polling by province.
Table showing average absolute error of our forecasts by party and by province. Our predictions were best in Quebec and worst in Atlantic Canada.
But our model did more than just produce forecasts. We put a lot of effort into making our model probabilistic so as to produce accurate confidence intervals.
And it seems to have paid off! 89.6% of election results fell within our 90% confidence intervals, 94% in our 95% confidence intervals, and 98.9 in our 99% confidence intervals. So when we where wrong, it seems we were exactly as wrong as we said we would be!
All in all, a very encouraging test in a difficult multi-party system for our model.
We're especially proud of being the only forecaster who successfully predicted the collapse of the Bloc Quebecois.
Here is the probability distribution of our predictions for the number of seats the Bloc would attain. It speaks for itself.