Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/28-5/1, Missouri voters,
3/3-6 in parens):
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46 (45)
Todd Akin (R): 45 (44)
Undecided: 8 (11)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46 (46)
Ed Martin (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 15 (14)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45 (45)
Sarah Steelman (R): 42 (42)
Undecided: 14 (14)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R): 42
Undecided: 13
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 47
John Brunner (R): 41
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3.9%)
The Missouri Senate topline numbers have stayed very stable for almost half a year—indeed, they remind me of the steady-state MO polls from 2009 for the Roy Blunt-Robin Carnahan race. If you go all the way back to December, you'll see that McCaskill's numbers against Steelman (the only Republican polled all three times) are virtually unchanged. And in this case, no news is good news. As Tom Jensen explains:
Claire McCaskill's endured a lot of bad press over the last two months since PPP last polled Missouri, but at least in the short term it doesn't appear to be affecting her prospects for reelection. McCaskill's approval rating in early March was 46% and now it's still 46%. McCaskll had small leads over a cadre of potential Republican opponents in early March and she still has small leads over all of her potential foes. This continues to look like a toss up race, as it has for months now, but McCaskill's position now is no worse than it was before the issue of her airplane and its related taxes hit the news.
I originally called out the airplane business (McCaskill had properly received reimbursement for using her private plane for official business) as Politico-fueled b.s., but I quailed when it turned into a tax issue (turns out McCaskill had several hundred thousand dollars worth of unpaid property taxes on the plane). Turns out I shouldn't have - or at least, this issue simply hasn't penetrated yet. That could change if the GOP unleashes a barrage of attack ads later down the line, but for now, McCaskill appears to be holding firm. Tom is pessimistic about the future, though:
These margins don't exactly look comfortable for McCaskill and a look inside the numbers suggests they're likely to get worse. There are a good deal more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all of these match ups—5% more undecided GOP voters against Steelman, 6% more against Akin, 10% more against Luetkemeyer, 11% more against Brunner, and 12% more against Martin. If those folks end up coming "home," you're looking at each of the Republican picking up another 2-4 points on the margin.
We still don't know who her Republican opponent will be, but the guy who looks strongest, Rep. Todd Akin, still hasn't said whether he'll run. I suspect he will, and I suspect he'll give Sarah Steelman a shellacking in the primary (if she stays in), which will mean McCaskill will have a titanic fight on her hands—but not that we ever really expected differently.