First off, I just want to thank David Nir, James L., Crisistunity, and jeffmd, the editors of Swing State Project for putting a whole lot of work into the change and making this adjustment all the better. As a loyal SSPer, it's nice to see old and new faces (usernames)! I'll miss the old community, but I'm having fun here already, so it's all good!
Anyway, nycyoungin hates talking about himself. Let's get to the nitty gritty: A compromise map of New York.
It's amazing what one State Senate seat can do. If Antoine Thompson held a seat that went overwhelmingly for Gore, Kerry, and Obama (and, amazingly, maybe even Cuomo when Erie County went for Paladino), we would be looking at a potential 25-2 or 24-3 Democratic delegation in New York. Now, we're looking at another compromise, sadly, and one that's 21-6. Not horrible, but I would have loved a Democratic State Senate as well as a congress without Ann Marie Buerkle and Mike Grimm... though, the former will probably be thrown under the proverbial bus anyway.
Here's my map, which uses 2010 Census numbers. I had to redraw the map on a map using 2000 Census numbers, giving me 2008 election data (so it took a lot of time, would love comments!!!!). Please note, I have partisan numbers for all districts except in NYC (which are all Safe D anyways and time consuming, except for Weiner and Grimm, whose districts I will update soon). Also, all demographic data is in VAP (voting age population). All VRA seats are protected (though I couldn't make Meek's black majority anymore).
Point of reference (the current map):
My proposed map:
Long Island
NY-1 Blue
Tim Bishop (D-Southampton)
Obama 52.5
McCain 47.3
The district gets a little more safer for Bishop, who won in a marginal district in an extremely bad year for Democrats. He should be safe from now on.
NY-2 Green
Steve Israel (D-Huntington) Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
Obama 54.8
McCain 44.6
The seat gets a little weaker to shore up Bishop, but Islip and minority voters should keep Israel safe in this D+2 district. Note, Ackerman lives here, but could choose to run against King or McCarthy.
NY-3 Purple
Peter King (R-Oyster Bay)
Obama 46.4
McCain 52.8
King continues to be safe here, Safe R or likely R if Ackerman runs here.
NY-4 Red
Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
Obama 60
McCain 39.3
Adds a tiny bit of NYC, safe D regardless.
New York City
NY-5 Yellow
Yvette Clarke (D-Brooklyn)
52% Black VAP, Safe Democratic
NY-6 Teal
Greg Meeks (D-Queens)
46% Black VAP, Safe Democratic
NY-7 Gray
Joe Crowley (D-Queens)
24.6 White, 21.2 Black, 37.6 Hispanic, 14.6 Asian, Safe Democratic
NY-8
Jerold Nadler (D-Manhattan)
Safe Democratic
NY-9 Cyan
Anthony Weiner (D-Queens)
Safe Democratic, becomes 46.7 White VAP, 17.8 Hispanic VAP, 28.7 Asian VAP should be >60% Obama (will run numbers later)
NY-10 Pink
Ed Towns (D-Brooklyn)
51.4 Black VAP, Safe Democratic
NY-11 Light Green
Nydia Velazquez (D-Brooklyn)
41.2 Hispanic VAP (plurality White VAP is 33.5), Safe Democratic
NY-12 Staten Island Blue
Mike Grimm (R-Staten Island)
Still swingy, Lean R (will run numbers later)
NY-13 Salmon
Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan)
Safe Democratic
NY-14 Beige
Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan)
28.6 White VAP, 21.7 Black VAP, 40.3 Hispanic VAP, Safe Democratic
NY-15 Orange
Jose Serrano (D-Bronx)
Obama 94.8
McCain 5
64 Hispanic VAP, Most Democratic in nation
NY-16 Lime
Eliot Engel (D-Bronx)
Obama 64
McCain 35.3
White VAP 47.1, Black VAP 17.3, Hispanic VAP 27.6
NY-17 Dark Blue
Nita Lowey (D-Harrison)
Obama 63.3
McCain 36
Upstate
NY-18 Yellow
Nan Hayworth (R-Mount Kisco)
Obama 50
McCain 49
Made a point more Republican.
NY-19 Greenish Yellow
Maurice Hinchey (D-Saugerties)
Obama 59.9
McCain 38.5
Adds all of Tompkins County to keep Hinchey safe.
NY-20 Light Beige
Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
Obama 57.9
McCain 40.2
Adds all of Otsego to make up population, still Safe D
NY-21 Maroon
Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook)
Obama 49.5
McCain 48.8
Adds Hamilton and Herkimer to make it a few more points Republican. Gibson is not safe, but life gets a tad easier.
NY-22 Brown
Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)
Obama 58.7
McCain 39.6
Adds heavily Democratic parts of Syracuse to strengthen Owens. Goes from R+2 to D+4 to D+6. Pretty cool.
NY-23 Turquoise
Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)
Obama 49.1
McCain 49.2
Arcuri's old district goes becomes a McCain district by losing Tompkins and adding Lewis and Watertown.
NY-24 Purple
Louise Slaugher (D-Fairport)
Obama 58.9
McCain 39.9
Now completely based in Monroe County, no more earmuffs, still safe D (unless Robach runs, which would make it Likely D)
NY-25 Southern Tier Pink
Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Obama 45.6
McCain 52.8
Now firmly Republican, taking in Buffalo suburbs and exurbs.
NY-26 Sprawling Gray
Jane Corwin (R-Clarence) or Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg) and Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
Obama 45.2
McCain 53.2
If Corwin wins, then I expect for her to be thrown in with Buerkle, the two least senior members of the delegation. (I know Hanna and Gibson are just as senior, but it's clear that even the GOP doesn't think Buerkle's ready for prime time.) It's a Safe R district, and it's about an even fight. Some of Syracuse is in it, so is both of their homes. If Corwin wins, then I expect they'll tether parts of Rochester and Buffalo with Hamburg for a new Dem-leaning seat, and put Buerkle and Hanna together. Regardless, I'm doing this on the assumption that Corwin is going to win, but that's no slam dunk.
NY-27 Buffalo Green
Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)
Obama 63.4
McCain 35.1
Special thanks to Dave Bradlee, whose application has led to brilliant maps, and a whole lot of finals procrastination!
More shots:
Cool aerial shot of New York State: